Robalini's NFL Pick - Super Bowl XLVIII Edition

Here's my results for Week 20
W-L-T record: 0-2
Playoff record: 6-4
Season record: 90-95-5

Denver Broncos (-2 1/2) over Seattle Seahawks
This point spread has been shockingly stable, which is surprising considering I think it's low.  The truth is this has been a fairy tale season for Peyton Manning, and I don't see the fairy tale ending.  The big knock on his career - his lack of substantial playoff success - should be obliterated with a victory today.  The weather is looking extremely pro-Manning, but even if it was freezing, I would expect him to respond to that secondary knock that he isn't good in cold weather.  Yes, Seattle is a formidable team, but I don't think they have what it takes to defeat one of the greatest QBs of all time in peak form.  And they lived happily ever after...

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends VegasInsider.com:

http://www.vegasinsider.com

Robalini's Week 20 NFL Picks

Here's my results for Week 19
W-L-T record: 3-1
Playoff record: 6-2
Season record: 90-93-5

New England Patriots (+6) over Denver Broncos
It looks pretty good for Peyton Manning and the Broncos.  The weather isn't too bad (which helps, as his record is dubious in cold weather) and they have the home field advantage, plus Tom Brady is reportedly slightly sick and injured.  Might as well notch this one a big W for Denver, right?  Well, maybe.  But keep in mind, the point spread has been as high as six points at the MGM (like when I jumped on it on Thursday evening.)  And even if the rumors are true, a second-best Brady is still better in the playoffs than ninety percent of all QBs.  Then remember this: Tom Brady is 10-4 lifetime in games against Peyton Manning. Only two of Manning's four victories were above six points.  Betting on Manning would defy history, and I'm not going to defy history here.

San Francisco 49ers (+3 1/2) over Seattle Seahawks

The last two times the 49ers went into Seattle, they got blown out.  Bad.  But then, so have many other teams.  And the Seattle Seahawks that blew them out aren't the same team they are now.  Seattle, like many number one seeds over the past decade, seem highly uncomfortable in that role.  It is a team with only three playoff games under its belt.  This will be SF's eighth in the Harbaugh era.  They are the playoff-rich team with a battle tested defense and an offense that finally seems in sync.  Expect the Niners to go to their second straight Super Bowl.

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends VegasInsider.com:

http://www.vegasinsider.com

Robalini's Week 19 NFL Picks

Here's my results for Week 18
W-L-T record: 3-1
Season record: 87-92-5

New Orleans Saint (+8 1/2) over Seattle Seahawks
Yes, Seattle is a great home team and the Saints are a bad road team.  But this point spread is just too huge, and the Seahawks are relatively inexperienced in the playoffs.

Indianapolis Colts (+7 1/2) over New England Patriots
Again, the high point spread is the key here.  With little pressure on Andrew Luck in expectations, I imagine he'll play well and at the least keep it close.

San Francisco 49ers (+1) over Carolina Panthers
At one point this week the 49ers actually were the dog and I jumped on it.  Most spreads have SF a slight favorite, but I don't expect it to be close.  The 49ers have underperformed most the season, and they're still one of the top four teams in the NFL.  They'll prove it against Cam Newton.

San Diego Chargers (+10) over Denver Broncos
Yes, Peyton Manning has had an incredible season, but he has a stunning history of underperforming in the playoffs.  And which team has he consistently had the worst history of underperforming against in big games?  Look it up: it's the Chargers, who he lost to earlier this season.  And then let's factor in the colder weather he'll be playing in, which is another Manning liability.  So add it up and: is ten points too much?  Yes.

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends VegasInsider.com:

http://www.vegasinsider.com

Robalini's Week 18 NFL Picks

Here's my results for Week 17
W-L-T record: 6-7
Season record: 84-91-5

Kansas City Chiefs (+2 1/2) over Indianapolis Colts
The Colts seem happy to have just won their division.  The Chiefs, on the other hand, seem ready to prove more, feeling disrespected after an 11-5 season.

Philadelphia Eagles (-2 1/2) over New Orleans Saints
The Saints are a great team, but the rip on them is true: they just aren't as good of a team on the road as home.  Playing in freezing Philly will not help them at all.

San Diego Chargers (+7) over Cincinnati Bengals
The Chargers, like the Chiefs, are an underrated team.  They could easily outright win, and if not, I expect a close one.

San Francisco 49ers (-2 1/2) over Green Bay Packers
I love Aaron Rodgers guts in a season-extending win last week.  But the 49ers are a more complete team, and their greatest strength, a dominating defense, is actually the big winner in the freezing temps they'll be playing through in Lambeau Field.

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends VegasInsider.com:

http://www.vegasinsider.com

Robalini's Week 17 NFL Picks

Here's my results for Week 16
W-L-T record: 7-3
Season record: 78-84-5

Atlanta Falcons (+6 1/2) over Carolina Panthers
With Atlanta at home, this is a good bet for them to at least keep it close.

Chicago Bears (+3) over Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers will not be 100 percent, and the Bears are at home.

New York Giants (-3) over Washington Redskins
The Skins have checked out, and the Giants are playing for pride.  That should be enough.

Baltimore Ravens (+6 1/2) over Cincinnati Bengals
If this is a tough fight (and it should be) the Bengals should check out, as they're in the playoffs either way.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+11 1/2) over Indianapolis Colts
Take the points, the Jags will keep it close.

Philadelphia Eagles (-6 1/2) over Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys without Romo?  Forget it.

New York Jets (+6 1/2) over Miami Dolphins
Dog number 5.

Detroit Lions (+3) over Minnesota Vikings
Dog number 6.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+12 1/2) over New Orleans Saints
I love the Saints, but this is just too many points.

Oakland Raiders (+12 1/2) over Denver Broncos
Dog number 8, again with too many points.

San Francisco 49ers (-1) over Arizona Cardinals
This is a small spread for a very hot team in SF.

Kansas City Chiefs (+10) over San Diego Chargers
Where is the respect for an 11-4 team?

St. Louis Rames (+11 1/2) over Seattle Seahawks
Take the points in Dog number 10.

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends VegasInsider.com:

http://www.vegasinsider.com

Robalini's Week 16 NFL Picks

Here's my results for Week 15
W-L-T record: 6-5
Season record: 71-81-5

New Orleans Saints (+3) over Carolina Panthers
Yes, I know the Saints are not a good road team.  But do I expect Drew Brees or Cam Newton to underperform in a big game?

Dallas Cowboys (-3) over Washington Redskins
The Cowboys still have something to play for, so expect a win.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) over Chicago Bears
Look for Philly to recover from a bad loss at home.

Indianapolis Colts (+7) over Kansas City Chiefs
This should be a close game, so take the points.

Minnesota Vikings (+8 1/2) over Cincinnati Bengals
The points make Minnesota a good bet.

Denver Broncos (-10) Over Houston Texans
Look for Peyton to pound the lowly Texans.

Arizona Cardinals (+10) over Seattle Seahawks
Going with the points against the Seahawks.

New York Giants (+10) over Detroit Lions
Dog number five of the week.

San Diego Chargers (-9 1/2) over Oakland Raiders
I will give the points when it involves the Raiders.

Atlanta Falcons (+14) over San Francisco 49ers
Two touchdowns?  Give the Falcons some respect!

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends VegasInsider.com:

http://www.vegasinsider.com

Robalini's Week 15 NFL Picks - Sunday

San Francisco 49ers (-4 1/2) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The 49ers have stumbled this year, but they are still a solid team.

New Orleans Saints (-5 1/2) over St. Louis Rams
The Saints are on the road, but it is an indoor stadium, so bet on Brees and co.

New York Giants (+7) over Seattle Seahawks
Take the points and bet the Giants will lose close.

Buffalo Bills (-2) over Jacksonville Jaguars
Update: still don't take the Jaguars seriously.

New England Patriots (+1) over Miami Dolphins
The Patriots an underdog?  I'm taking that bet!

Philadelphia Eagles (-4 1/2) over Minnesota Vikings
The Eagles are just too frightening right now to have such a small spread.

New York Jets (+11) over Carolina Panthers
The Panther are very good, but this point spread is out of whack.

Kansas City Chiefs (-4) over Oakland Raiders
After getting the three-game losing streak off their back with style, the Chiefs should dominate the Raiders.

Dallas Cowboys (-6 1/2) over Green Bay Packers
I still respect Tony Romo, even if most gamblers don't.

Baltimore Ravens (+6) over Detroit Lions
The spread is an insult to the Ravens, who, despite their problems, are over .500 this season.

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends VegasInsider.com:

http://www.vegasinsider.com

Robalini's Week 15 NFL Picks - Thursday Special

Here's my results for Week 14
W-L-T record: 7-5
Season record: 65-76-5

San Diego Chargers (+10 1/2) over Denver Broncos
Take the points.

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends VegasInsider.com:

http://www.vegasinsider.com

Robalini's Week 14 NFL Picks

Here's my results for Week 13
W-L-T record: 4-6-1
Season record: 58-71-5

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) over Washington Redskins
Yes, the Chiefs weren't as good as their 9-0 record would suggest four weeks ago, but they are too good to lose a fourth game in a row.

Baltimore Ravens (-6) over Minnesota Vikings
Weather will play a factor this week, and the Ravens will dominate the indoor-home Vikings.

New York Jets (-2 1/2) over Oakland Raiders
Jets at home versus the West Coast Raiders?  I'm betting on the weather again.

New Orleans Saints (-3) over Carolina Panthers
The Saints are just too dominating at home for this spread.

Philadelphia Eagles (-2 1/2) over Detroit Lions
Even without the freezing Philly weather, I'd take the Eagles with the hottest offense in the NFL.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3 1/2) over Miami Dolphins
The Steelers have toughed out a difficult season and may make the playoffs.  Look for them to get closer to the goal after this game.

Tennessee Titans (+12 1/2) over Denver Broncos
I'm betting against Peyton in the cold, even at home.

Arizona Cardinals (-6) over St. Louis Rams
The Cards are quietly becoming a playoff threat, and should soundly beat the Rams minus Sam Bradford.

San Diego Chargers (-3) over New York Giants
I just never bought in to the Giants this year.  The Chargers, for all their inconsistencies, are the better team.

Seattle Seahawks (+2 1/2) over San Francisco 49ers
I've been skeptical of them all year, but the Hawks should be 12-1 after this week.

Green Bay Packers (-3) over Atlanta Falcons
For all the Packers problems (actually, it's just one: Aaron Rodgers is injured) the Falcons are looking far worse.

Dallas Cowboys (+1 1/2) over Chicago Bears
The Cowboys are a team nobody is paying attention to, even though they are one team who can knock off the Seahawks on the road.  Look for a W against the Bears.

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends VegasInsider.com:

http://www.vegasinsider.com

Robalini's Week 13 NFL Picks

Here's my results for Week 12
W-L-T record: 4-2
Season record: 54-65-4

Detroit Lions (-6) over Green Bay Packers
Football math: Green Bay Packers minus Aaron Rodgers equals Turkey Day loss.

Indianapolis Colts (-4) over Tennessee Titans
Is Andrew Luck elite yet?  Nope.  But he's good enough to lead the Colts over the Titans.

Denver Broncos (-4) over Kansas City Chiefs
Sorry KC, but this point spread is too low to pass up on Peyton Manning.

Cleveland Browns (-7) over Jacksonville Jaguars
Sorry Jags, but giving you only sevn points is too low to pass up on the Browns.

Carolina Panthers (-8) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sorry, Tampa, I'm not buying your three game win streak.  I am buying the Panthers' seven game win streak though.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) over Arizona Cardinals
AZ is one of the really hot NFL teams right now.  So I'm gonna go contrarian and say the Eagles will trounce them back to size.

New York Jets (-1 1/2) over Miami Dolphins
There's a good chance of snow, and the Dolphins have a bad record in snow conditions over history.  That's besides still missing two starting offensive lineman.

Buffalo Bills (-3) over Atlanta Falcons
For all their flaws, the Bills are a competitive team.  The Falcons look like they've just given up.

St. Louis Rams (+9 1/2) over San Francisco 49ers
This spread is too high for the inconsistent 49ers to cover.

New England Patriots (-7 1/2) over Houston Texans
I'll bet on Brady with this reasonable spread.

New Orleans Saints (+6) over Seattle Seahawks
Seattle isn't as good as their record suggests this year.  I'll take the Saints to keep it close.

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends VegasInsider.com:

http://www.vegasinsider.com

Robalini's Week 12 NFL Picks

Here's my results for Week 11
W-L-T record: 1-5-2 (OUCH AGAIN!)
Season record: 50-63-4 (Double OUCH!!)

New Orleans Saints (-7 1/2) over Atlanta Falcons
The Saints are still looking great, and the Falcons are looking shockingly bad.

Carolina Panthers (-3 1/2) over Miami Dolphins
The Panthers are hot, and the Dolphins are the most disfunctional team in the NFL, so I'll bite.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2 1/2) over Cleveland Browns
Despite the bad start this season, the Steelers have proven they are a competitive team, and will deliver against the Browns.

Dallas Cowboys (+2 1/2) over New York Giants
Don't believe the Giants four-game winning streak for a second.

Denver Broncos (-2 1/2) over New England Patriots
Finally a reasonable point spread!  Take the Broncos if Peyton Manning is getting less than a field goal spread, even if it's the Pats.

San Francisco 49ers (-5) over Washington Redskins
They may have lost two in a row, but the 49ers are still formidable against mediocre teams.  Enter Redskins.

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends VegasInsider.com:

http://www.vegasinsider.com

Robalini's Week 11 NFL Picks

Here's my results for Week 10
W-L-T record: 2-5 (OUCH!)
Season record: 49-58-2 (Double OUCH!!)

Atlanta Falcons (+1) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Falcons have lost three in a row, but should recover against the lowly Bucs.

Detroit Lions (-2) over Pittsburgh Steelers
Attention: the Lions have quietly taken over the lead in the NFC North.

Washigton Redskins (+4 1/2) over Philadelphia Eagles
I expect a close game, so take the points.

San Diego Chargers (-1 1/2) over Miami Dolphins
Never mind the serious locker turmoil, the real problem right now with the Dolphins is they're missing two starting offensive lineman.

Baltimore Ravens (+3) over Chicago Bears
Until Jay Cutler gets better, the Bears are a bad bet.

Kansas City Chiefs (+8 1/2) over Denver Broncos
The Broncos are the better team, but this is too many points, especially with a slightly injured Peyton Manning.

New Orleans Saints (-3) over San Francisco
This would be a close game... if the Saints weren't at home.  They are simply scary good at home.

New York Giants (-4) over Green Bay Packers
The Giants, after going 0-6, have won three in a row.  Oh wait, the Packers are using their third-string QB?  Make that four in a row.

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends VegasInsider.com:

http://www.vegasinsider.com

Robalini's Week 10 NFL Picks - Sunday

Philadelphia Eagles (+2) over Green Bay Packers
If you got in on this game on Tuesday, the Eagles were still getting points.  With Aaron Rodgers out, they won't need 7 touchdown passes to win this week.

St. Louis Rams (+10) over Indianapolis Colts
The Rams should keep it closer than the point spread suggests.

Atlanta (+6 1/2) over Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are 8-1, but have had trouble covering.  They're also travelling to the East Coast, and the Falcons have a great home advantage.

San Francisco 49ers (-6) over Carolina Panthers
The Niners have won 5 in a row in double digits.  Make that six.

San Diego Chargers (+7) over Denver Broncos
The Chargers should keep this close at ome.

Dallas Cowboys (+7) over New Orleans Saints
Even when Tony Romo loses, it's close.  Take the points.

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends VegasInsider.com:

http://www.vegasinsider.com

Robalini's Week 10 NFL Picks - Thursday Special

Here's my results for Week 9
W-L-T record: 4-7
Season record: 47-53-2

Thursday Night Football:
Washington Redskins (-2 1/2) over Minnesota Vikings
Skins are starting to look good.

More games coming Saturday or early Sunday...

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends VegasInsider.com:

http://www.vegasinsider.com

Robalini's Week 9 NFL Picks - Sunday

Atlanta Falcons (+7 1/2) over Carolina Panthers
The Falcons have been losing, but they've been losing close.  Take the points.

Dallas Cowboys (-9 1/2) over Minnesota Vikings
Look for a great performance by Tony Romo in a decisive win.

New Orleans Saints (-5 1/2) over New York Jets
Drew Brees is on a roll.

Tennessee Titans (-2 1/2) over St. Louis Rams
The Titans have been overlooked all year by most, including myself.  Look for another win for an under-the-radar team.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) over Buffalo Bills
The Chief undefeated run will continue.

San Diego Chargers (+1) over Washington Redskins
The Chargers are another overlooked team, and look for them to win against the Skins.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+16 1/2) over Seattle Seahawks
I don't like the Bucs, but 16 1/2 points?  I'll take 'em.

Baltimore Ravens (-1 1/2) over Cleveland Browns
I still don't take the Browns seriously.  Sorry.

Indianapolis Colts (-1 1/2) over Houston Texans
Despite the overhype, Andrew Luck has been playing consistently good this year, and should take care of the Texans.

Green Bay Packers (-10 1/2) over Chicago Bears
I'll take Aaron Rodgers and the Packers at home against a highly injured Bears team.

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends VegasInsider.com:

http://www.vegasinsider.com

Robalini's Week 9 NFL Picks - Thursday Special

Here's my results for Week 8
W-L-T record: 5-7
Season record: 43-46-2

Halloween Thursday Night Football:
Cincinnati Bengals (-2 1/2) over Miami Dolphins
The Bengals at 6-2 are exceeding expectations, and the Dolphins are winless in October.  Look for the trend to continue tonight..

More games coming Saturday or early Sunday...

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends VegasInsider.com:

http://www.vegasinsider.com

Robalini's Week 8 NFL Picks

Robalini's Week 8 NFL Picks
Here's my results for Week 7
W-L-T record: 6-6
Season record: 38-39-2

Carolina Panthers (-6) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I'm planning to bet against the Bucs for awhile.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+17) over San Francisco 49ers
As bad as the Jags are, 17 points is too much for their future division opponent in San Francisco (when the Jags move to Los Angeles.)

Dallas Cowboys (+3 1/2) over Detroit Lions
Tony Romo and the Cowboys still don't get enough credit.  Look at them to cover in Motown.

New York Giants (+6 1/2) over Philadelphia Eagles
The Giants may not win in Philly, but expect them to keep it close in an ugly game.

Kansas City Chiefs (-7) over Cleveland Browns
A lot of experts believe the Chiefs have no business being the only undefeated team in the NFL.  They will stay undefeated another week.

New Orleans Saints (-11) over Buffalo Bills
Are 11 points a lot?  Yes.  But the Saints score a lot, and the Bills don't.

Miami Dolphins (+7) over New England Patriots
News flash: Tom Brady has only 1 TD pass in the last 3 games (albeit a great one.)  The Pats should win, but expect a close game.

New York Jets (+6 1/2) over Cincinnati Bengals
The Jets and Geno Smith are better than they are getting credit for.  Take the points.

Washington Redskins (+13) over Denver Broncos
I'm returning to my "Denver shouldn't be giving so many points in spread bets no matter how amazing Peyton Manning is" stance and betting on the Skins to keep it close.

Atlanta Falcons (+2 1/2) over Arizona Cardinals
Wait, the Falcons are the dogs here?  Really?

Green Bay Packers (-9) over Minnesota Vikings
Oddly, this game is getting a tighter spread despite how bad Minnesota played Monday night.  Whatever the spread, the Packs are my pick here.

Seattle Seahawks (-10 1/2) over St. Louis Rams
The spread is high, but the Seahawks are amazing and Sam Bradford is out.

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends VegasInsider.com:

http://www.vegasinsider.com

Robalini's Week 7 NFL Picks - Sunday

Back at .500, here's my picks:

San Diego Chargers (-7 1/2) over Jacksonville Jaguars
Some people think the Jaguars may keep this one close.  They're wrong.

Kansas City Chiefs (-6) over Houston Texans
The Chiefs should clobber the Texans without Matt Schaub, even if he can't throw a interception returned for a touchdown.

Detroit Lions (-2 1/2) over Cincinnati Bengals
The Lions giving less than a FG at home against the Bengals?  I'll bite!

Miami Dolphins (-7) over Buffalo Bills
A TD is a lot of points, but the Bills are a troubled team.

Chicago Bears (+1 1/2) over Washington Redskins
I know the Skins are at home, but making the Bears a dog earlier this week was a Vegas goof, and I jumped on it.

Dallas Cowboys (+3) over Philadelphia Eagles
Never mind the haters, Romo.  The Cowboys will settle they are the class of the NFC East in Philly.

St. Louis Rams (+7) over Carolina Panthers
A TD is too huge in a game involving two underperforming teams.

Atlanta Falcons (-6) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs are good to bet against, so this is a good game for Atlanta to start recovering this season.

San Francisco 49ers (-3 1/2) over Tennessee Titans
Where's the respect for the Niners?  This spread is too low!

Green Bay Packers (-9) over Cleveland Browns
Nine points are a lot, but this is the Packers, and they are facing the Browns.

Denver Broncos (-6 1/2) over Indianapolis Colts

I almost don't care about the point spread here.  Peyton Manning will taste his revenge.

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends VegasInsider.com:

http://www.vegasinsider.com

Robalini's Week 7 NFL Picks - Thursday Special

Here's my results for Week 6
W-L-T record: 7-4
Season record: 32-33-2

Thursday Night Football:
Seattle Seahawks (-6) over Arizona Cardinals
The Seahawks should dominate the Cards.  Give the points.

More games coming Saturday or early Sunday...

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends VegasInsider.com:

http://www.vegasinsider.com

Robalini's Week 6 NFL Picks

Here's my results for Week 5
W-L-T record: 6-7
Season record: 25-29-2

Philadelphia Eagles (-1) over Tampa Bay BUccaneers
Whatever the problems with the Eagles right now (and there are many) they got nothing on the Bucs.  This looks like an easy win.

Green Bay Packers (-3) over Baltimore Ravens
I got this as a +100 payout and that's still available in multiple casinos.  The Pack has struggled, but thanks to Aaron Rodgers, they're still a fundamentally sound team.

Detroit Lions (-2 1/2) over Cleveland Browns
I'm still not buying the Browns.  With Reggie Bush back, I am buying the Lions.

St. Louis Rams (+7 1/2) over Houston Texans
The Rams are better than their record suggests, and the Texans (led by Pick-Six Schaub) are worse.  Look for St. Louis to at least keep it close.

New York Jets (-2 1/2) over Pittsburgh Steelers
The Jets are silently looking good under Geno Smith: look for them to prove it against the Steelers.

Cincinnati Bengals (-6) over Buffalo Bills
When this fell below a TD yesterday, I bit.  Yes, it's still a lot of points, but the Bills are not the same team without EJ Emanuel.

Tennessee Titans (+13 1/2) over Seattle Seahawks
The Titans aren't as good as their record suggests, but this line is complete disrespect.  Take the points.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+27 1/2) over Denver Broncos
This is solely about the point spread.  As good as Peyton Manning (who probably will be Sports Illustrated's Sportsman of the Year) and the Broncos are and as bad as the soon-to-be Los Angeles Jaguars are, I have to take the points.

San Francisco 49ers (-10 1/2) over Arizona Cardinals
Expect the Niners to romp.

New Orleans Saints (+2 1/2) over New England Patriots
The Patriots armor chink was exposed last week.  Look for Drew Brees and the Saints to exploit a team that shouldn't be 4-1.

San Diego Chargers (+1 1/2) over Indianapolis Colts
I'm still not buying the Colts and Andrew Luck this year.  Take the Chargers at home.

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends VegasInsider.com:

http://www.vegasinsider.com