http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2009/07/franken-did-you-hear-the-one-about-the-comedian-who-becomes-a-us-senator.html
Al Franken's Mick Jagger impersonation could liven up Senate
It's official. After an election tally recount that lasted eight months, cost millions of dollars and tied up several courts, Al Franken, one of the early stars of NBC's "Saturday Night Live," is finally joining that exclusive club known as the U.S. Senate.
Democrats on Capitol Hill and at the White House were delighted at the news, seeing in Franken's arrival a 60th vote that would help them deter Republican filibusters.
For his part, the new senator -- restrained since the November election by a court fight against Sen. Norm Coleman -- was exuberant. Flanked by his wife Frannie, he thanked voters and added, "I can't wait to get started."
Mindful of the pitfalls of being a national figure before he was a name in state politics, Franken said he considered himself not the 100th senator but Minnesota's second senator.
"I know there's been a lot of talk about the fact that when I'm sworn in I'll be the 60th member of the Democratic caucus, but that's not how I see it," said Franken, who's expected to be seated Monday. "I'm going to Washington to be the second senator from the state of Minnesota, and that's how I'm going to do this job."
The reticence is well-placed. Even with Franken's vote, Democrats don't have a slam-dunk majority. Some, like Massachusetts' Sen. Ted Kennedy and West Virginia's 91-year-old Robert Byrd, are ailing. Others, like Nebraska's Ben Nelson, are moderates who sometimes vote with Republicans.
Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin, asked recently what difference Franken's election would have, quipped, "It's one more vote." Noting that he and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid have been forced to sweat a lot of votes, Durbin added, "We have this tough situation with Senator Byrd and Senator Kennedy, so on a good day, we have 57. Al Franken makes it 58. It lightens my load a little bit, and Harry's as well, to find the additional votes to reach 60. And that's what it's all about."
In terms of policy, there's no question Franken is a liberal. He has already signaled his support for a pro-labor bill making it easier for unions to recruit workers. President Obama said he looked forward to Franken's help on two other administration priorities -- "lowering healthcare costs and investing in the kind of clean energy, jobs, and industries that will help America lead in the 21st century." And Franken is a likely vote for the upcoming vote for Obama's Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor.
Franken is not the first person from the world of entertainment to sign up for politics. President Reagan was a onetime president of the Screen Actors Guild. California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is, let's face it, more famous worldwide as The Terminator.
And, frankly, he may not be the funniest person in the Senate. Only they know for sure.
Still, Franken's antics as a comedian are likely to follow him to the U.S. Senate, sometimes referred to, in all seriousness, as "the world's greatest deliberative body."
Of course at the rate scandals are coming out of Washington, maybe a comedian is just what the U.S. Senate needs.
-- Johanna Neuman
Showing posts with label Norm Coleman. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Norm Coleman. Show all posts
Friday, July 10, 2009
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Democrat Is Winner in Recount of Minnesota
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/06/us/politics/06minnesota.html
Democrat Is Winner in Recount of Minnesota Senate Race
By KIRK JOHNSON
January 5, 2009
ST. PAUL — Al Franken, the comedian who became a Democratic pundit and then a politician, won November’s election for the United States Senate by 225 votes out of 2.9 million cast, according to the finally completed recount results certified on Monday by the state’s independent canvassing board.
But even as the board members were leaving the state office building across the street from the Capitol, Mr. Franken’s opponent, the Republican incumbent, Norm Coleman, said through his lawyers that the board’s work had been flawed and that he would challenge the recount in court.
“This process isn’t at an end — it is now just at the beginning,” said Tony Trimble, a lawyer for Mr. Coleman. “We will contest the results.”
Minnesota residents have probably become somewhat inured to revolving-door news days like this — an advance by one side countered by a bayonet charge from the other, each battling for inches.
But Monday’s certified recount number is a new chapter in the story. Before the board’s certification, the questions were broad: Had the election been conducted properly? Did the system as a whole work? And the geography extended to every county and city.
The Minnesota secretary of state, Mark Ritchie, who is also head of the canvassing board, said he believed good things were revealed about the democratic process in the state. The voting process had worked, Mr. Ritchie said, and while mistakes had been found by some local elections officials in throwing out perfectly good ballots, no evidence turned up of widespread fraud or malfeasance. The recount team had then done a good job retracing the steps of what voters had wanted on Election Day, he said.
“It was as accurate as humanly possible within Minnesota law,” said Mr. Ritchie, a Democrat, referring to the recount. “I believe all lawful votes were counted.”
Mr. Coleman’s lawyers said the lawsuit would focus much more narrowly on batches of absentee votes that the campaign believed were either not recounted or recounted incorrectly. Under Minnesota law, Mr. Coleman has seven calendar days to file a contested election lawsuit, and there are some political experts who think he might change his mind and concede.
Mr. Trimble sounded anything but hesitant, though, and said the papers would be ready within 24 hours, mandating the creation of a three-judge panel to be chosen by the chief justice of the State Supreme Court.
For Mr. Coleman, the former mayor of St. Paul, who was elected to the Senate in 2002, the political calculus of whether to contest the election legally involves both national and state considerations. A contested election could take months to resolve, which might earn him some points with national Republican leaders, even if he failed to overturn the canvassing board’s decision, because it would keep one more Democrat out of the Senate through at least the early days of the Obama administration as immense issues like an economic stimulus and taxes are debated.
Countering that is how much a continued battle could affect his political future within the state — he is 59 years old — if residents simply become fed up and blame him for having only one senator at a crucial moment in history.
And while 225 votes might seem like the narrowest of margins, some political experts say that finding a net shift of that margin in Mr. Coleman’s favor could be a big hill to climb.
“The big issue is where do you net 225?” said Lawrence R. Jacobs, a professor of political science and director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota. “He needs to factor in that Franken is also likely to pick up votes — the absentees are not going to be only for Coleman.”
A version of this article appeared in print on January 6, 2009, on page A15 of the New York edition.
Democrat Is Winner in Recount of Minnesota Senate Race
By KIRK JOHNSON
January 5, 2009
ST. PAUL — Al Franken, the comedian who became a Democratic pundit and then a politician, won November’s election for the United States Senate by 225 votes out of 2.9 million cast, according to the finally completed recount results certified on Monday by the state’s independent canvassing board.
But even as the board members were leaving the state office building across the street from the Capitol, Mr. Franken’s opponent, the Republican incumbent, Norm Coleman, said through his lawyers that the board’s work had been flawed and that he would challenge the recount in court.
“This process isn’t at an end — it is now just at the beginning,” said Tony Trimble, a lawyer for Mr. Coleman. “We will contest the results.”
Minnesota residents have probably become somewhat inured to revolving-door news days like this — an advance by one side countered by a bayonet charge from the other, each battling for inches.
But Monday’s certified recount number is a new chapter in the story. Before the board’s certification, the questions were broad: Had the election been conducted properly? Did the system as a whole work? And the geography extended to every county and city.
The Minnesota secretary of state, Mark Ritchie, who is also head of the canvassing board, said he believed good things were revealed about the democratic process in the state. The voting process had worked, Mr. Ritchie said, and while mistakes had been found by some local elections officials in throwing out perfectly good ballots, no evidence turned up of widespread fraud or malfeasance. The recount team had then done a good job retracing the steps of what voters had wanted on Election Day, he said.
“It was as accurate as humanly possible within Minnesota law,” said Mr. Ritchie, a Democrat, referring to the recount. “I believe all lawful votes were counted.”
Mr. Coleman’s lawyers said the lawsuit would focus much more narrowly on batches of absentee votes that the campaign believed were either not recounted or recounted incorrectly. Under Minnesota law, Mr. Coleman has seven calendar days to file a contested election lawsuit, and there are some political experts who think he might change his mind and concede.
Mr. Trimble sounded anything but hesitant, though, and said the papers would be ready within 24 hours, mandating the creation of a three-judge panel to be chosen by the chief justice of the State Supreme Court.
For Mr. Coleman, the former mayor of St. Paul, who was elected to the Senate in 2002, the political calculus of whether to contest the election legally involves both national and state considerations. A contested election could take months to resolve, which might earn him some points with national Republican leaders, even if he failed to overturn the canvassing board’s decision, because it would keep one more Democrat out of the Senate through at least the early days of the Obama administration as immense issues like an economic stimulus and taxes are debated.
Countering that is how much a continued battle could affect his political future within the state — he is 59 years old — if residents simply become fed up and blame him for having only one senator at a crucial moment in history.
And while 225 votes might seem like the narrowest of margins, some political experts say that finding a net shift of that margin in Mr. Coleman’s favor could be a big hill to climb.
“The big issue is where do you net 225?” said Lawrence R. Jacobs, a professor of political science and director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota. “He needs to factor in that Franken is also likely to pick up votes — the absentees are not going to be only for Coleman.”
A version of this article appeared in print on January 6, 2009, on page A15 of the New York edition.
Sunday, November 9, 2008
Al Franken's Race Counted on Flawed Systems
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=6641Al Franken's Razor-Thin MN Senate Race Counted on Flawed Optical-Scan Systems
PLUS: Details on 'What in the Hell Happened in Alaska' and Georgia and Oregon...
Posted By Brad Friedman On 5th November 2008
Diebold/Premier, Oregon, Georgia, Alaska, Election 2008, Minnesota, Al Franken 38 Comments
I'm exhausted, so forgive me if I make this quicker than it deserves. And if I haven't yet been able to jump into a myriad of other elections of serious concern around the country still today.
But just a few quick facts on the Al Franken (D) / Norm Coleman (R) U.S. Senate race in Minnesota, which we noted last night [1] (with some updates today) stands at some 700 votes currently between them. More hopefully after I've figured out how to sneak in some rest.
Here are three quick, bullet-point facts that Franken may want to know, since his was the only show on Air America which never had me on as a guest, as he simply refused to discuss serious issues concerning Election Integrity, now - ironically enough.
(And see below these for some quick skinny on serious concerns about the outstanding Senate races in AK, OR and GA...)
While all of Minnesota [2] votes on paper ballots, thankfully. Though all of those ballots are scanned, rather than counted, on proprietary optical-scan systems made by either ES&S or Diebold. Both companies produce systems that regularly fail to count and/or record ballots correctly.
The majority of counties use the ES&S M-100, precinct-based optical scanner. As we noted on Monday [3], that same scanner was found, according to a letter sent to the U.S. Election Assistance Commission (EAC) by a county in MI, to have failed pre-election "logic and accuracy testing". The M-100, according to the letter from county officials, “reported inconsistent vote totals", such that “The same ballots run through the same machines, yielded different results each time.” Public Record has more details tonight [4].
Two of Minnesota's three largest counties (Anoka and Dakota) use the Diebold AccuVote OS scanners to "count" their ballots. That system is the same one seen being hacked via its memory card in the Emmy-nominated HBO documentary Hacking Democracy [5]. You can watch the actual hack from the film below (appx 9 mins)
(By the way, the Diebold op-scanner used above, and in MN, was also used in January's New Hampshire primary when pre-election polls and exit polls determined Obama would be the winner, only to see him lose to Hillary Clinton. Obama was found to have won in the 20% of NH which counts their ballots by hand. While Clinton won, by an almost precisely flipped margin, in the 80% of NH that used the Diebold op-scan system seen being hacked in the mock-election seen being manipulated in the clip above.)
In late August of this year, Diebold admitted [6], while being sued because of it by the state of Ohio, that their GEMS central tabulator system routinely drops thousands of votes, without giving notice, while they are being uploaded from memory cards to the main server. That failed GEMS tabulator model was used yesterday, with both Diebold's touch-screen and op-scan systems, in some 34 states across the country.
An automatic recount has been triggered in the Franken/Coleman race, and will take place mid-November. I haven't checked yet as to whether it'll be a machine or hand recount --- hopefully the latter --- but it looks like I have time to find out later (Updated: News accounts say it will be by hand). Either way, hopefully the ballots --- both voted and unvoted --- will be carefully guarded and their chain of custody will be secure, transparent and well-documented between now and then.
If you'd like more details on all of these concerns, Al, feel free to contact me. All is forgiven. Sorta. Just as long as you don't concede before every vote is counted, and counted accurately.
Other U.S. Senate Races of Concern...
While I was writing this, Kim Zetter at WIRED posted a similar story [7] on the failed ES&S scanners used across much of MN. She also tosses in a quick summary of several of the other outstanding Senate races still in question in Alaska, Georgia and Oregon, and the types of voting systems used in each. Given my exhaustion, I'll hope both she and you will forgive if I simply repost those summaries here, along with a couple of my own quick additional points on each...
Alaska
Republican Senator, and convicted felon [8], Ted Stevens is leading Democratic challenger and Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich by 48.2 percent to 46.7 percent. Some 49,000 absentee, early votes and provisional ballots remain to be counted. If Stevens wins, it's unclear if he'll resign or face possible expulsion by his Senate peers. If either happens, there's talk of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin running for his seat. Voting System: Alaska uses optical-scan machines made by Premier Election Solutions (formerly Diebold) statewide.
Note: Alaska is one of the few places where the Democratic Party actually went to court to fight for transparency against the Electoral-Industrial Complex, successfully suing the state for the release of Diebold databases detailing how voters voted in the 2004 election. The state fought tooth and nail, including the invocation of "security threat" claims, to avoid releasing the information, even after they'd lost the suit. Alaska is very much a Diebold "company town."
Additional Note: A source of ours in Alaska, has contacted us to let us know about concerns of "shenanigans" in the counting up there. I hope to get more soon, but I'm told that Palin's Lt. Governor is in charge of overseeing the counting and that some are being denied access from observing the counting. So what's happening up there?
We're not the only ones wondering, as Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com asks today [9]: "What in the Hell Happened in Alaska?"...
Although Ted Stevens holds a small lead in Alaska and is the favorite to retain his seat, the outcome is not as inevitable as it might appear to be. Stevens currently holds a lead of 3,353 votes, or about 1.5 percent of the votes tallied so far. But, there are quite a large number of ballots yet to count. According to Roll Call [10], these include "at least 40,000 absentee ballot, 9,000 early voting ballots, and an undetermined number of questionable ballots".
Indeed, it seems possible that the number of "questionable" ballots could be quite high. So far, about 220 thousand votes have been processed in Alaska. This compares with 313 thousand votes cast in 2004. After adding back in the roughly 50,000 absentee and early ballots that Roll Call accounts for, that would get us to 270 thousand ballots, or about a 14 percent drop from 2004. It seems unlikely that turnout would drop by 14 percent in Alaska given the presence of both a high-profile senate race and Sarah Palin at the top of the ticket.
But even if Begich were to make up ground and win a narrow victory, this would seem to represent a catastrophic failure of polling, as three polls conducted following the guilty verdict in Stevens' corruption trial had Begich leading by margins of 7, 8 and 22 points, respectively.
...
[T]he polling failures in Alaska weren't unique to Stevens. They also applied to the presidential race, as well as Alaska's at-large House seat. In each case, the Republican outperformed his pre-election polling by margins ranging from 12 to 14 points.
Troubling? Um, yup. Silver offers some more numbers and details.
But back to Zetter's summaries...
Georgia
Incumbent Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss seized only 49.9 percent of votes [11] so far, narrowly missing the 50 percent majority that is required in Georgia to avoid a runoff race. Therefore he'll likely face off against Democratic challenger Jim Martin in a December 2 runoff election if some 50,000 absentee and other ballots that are still being counted fail to tip his percentage numbers. Voting System: Georgia uses AccuVote paperless touchscreen machines made by Premier Election Solutions statewide.
Note: Speaking of "company towns", GA was the first, along with MD, to adopt Diebold's wholly unverifiable touch-screen systems across the entire state. MD has since decided to replace the system with paper-based optical-systems, following scientific report after report warning about failure after failure with those Diebold touch-screen systems. MD will be replacing them for the 2010 election. The error-prone, easily-hacked, inaccurate touch-screens were first used in 2002 in GA, when Chambliss defeated incumbent Max Cleland in a surprising and controversial upset which has raised many questions about the machines, and Diebold's now-admitted secret patching of the systems, with uncertified software, just before the election.
Oregon
Incumbent Republican Senator Gordon Smith is currently leading Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley by less than 1 percent. Voting System: Oregon uses mail-in paper ballots statewide [12]. It's the only state that has gone entirely postal.
Note: The move to Vote-by-Mail is one of the unfortunate side-effects of the raised awareness about problems with touch-screen voting machines. It's a bad idea for democracy, as we detailed some months ago here [13]. (Special note for Oregon readers: You needn't send me emails disagreeing with my position. I already realize many of you love your VBM system very much and don't share my concerns with it. Nonetheless, I stand fully by the points made in that referenced article.)
As long promised, The BRAD BLOG [14] has covered your electoral system 2008, fiercely and independently, like no other media outlet in the nation. Please support our work with a donation [15] to help us keep going. If you like, we'll send you some great election integrity documentary films in return. Details on that right here... [16]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
URLs in this post:
[1] we noted last night: http://www.bradblog.com/?p=6634
[2] all of Minnesota: http://verifiedvoting.org/verifier/searched.php?ec=standard&state=MN&equipment_type%5B%5D=All+Types&vendor%5B%5D=All+Vendors&model%5B%5D=All+Models&vvpat=all&submit=Search&rowspp=50&topicText=&county=St.+Louis&stateText=
[3] we noted on Monday: http://www.bradblog.com/?p=6613
[4] Public Record has more details tonight: http://pubrecord.org/politics/474-e-voting-machines-used-in-disputed-franken-coleman-race-failed-tests.html
[5] Hacking Democracy: http://HackingDemocracy.com
[6] Diebold admitted: http://www.bradblog.com/?p=6309
[7] Kim Zetter at WIRED posted a similar story: http://blog.wired.com/27bstroke6/2008/11/ess-machines-th.html
[8] convicted felon: http://abcnews.go.com/TheLaw/story?id=6088781&page=1
[9] Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com asks today: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/what-in-hell-happened-in-alaska.html
[10] Roll Call: http://www.rollcall.com/news/29893-1.html?CMP=OTC-RSS
[11] seized only 49.9 percent of votes: http://www.sos.georgia.gov/elections/election_results/2008_1104/swscroll.htm
[12] mail-in paper ballots statewide: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=88074936
[13] detailed some months ago here: http://www.bradblog.com/?p=6003
[14] The BRAD BLOG: http://www.BradBlog.com
[15] a donation: http://www.bradblog.comhttps://www.paypal.com/xclick/business=Brad@BradBlog.com&item_name=Support+for+The+BRAD+BLOG&item_number=2008
[16] Details on that right here...: http://www.bradblog.com/?p=6472
[4] Public Record has more details tonight: http://pubrecord.org/politics/474-e-voting-machines-used-in-disputed-franken-coleman-race-failed-tests.html
[5] Hacking Democracy: http://HackingDemocracy.com
[6] Diebold admitted: http://www.bradblog.com/?p=6309
[7] Kim Zetter at WIRED posted a similar story: http://blog.wired.com/27bstroke6/2008/11/ess-machines-th.html
[8] convicted felon: http://abcnews.go.com/TheLaw/story?id=6088781&page=1
[9] Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com asks today: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/what-in-hell-happened-in-alaska.html
[10] Roll Call: http://www.rollcall.com/news/29893-1.html?CMP=OTC-RSS
[11] seized only 49.9 percent of votes: http://www.sos.georgia.gov/elections/election_results/2008_1104/swscroll.htm
[12] mail-in paper ballots statewide: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=88074936
[13] detailed some months ago here: http://www.bradblog.com/?p=6003
[14] The BRAD BLOG: http://www.BradBlog.com
[15] a donation: http://www.bradblog.comhttps://www.paypal.com/xclick/business=Brad@BradBlog.com&item_name=Support+for+The+BRAD+BLOG&item_number=2008
[16] Details on that right here...: http://www.bradblog.com/?p=6472
Saturday, September 13, 2008
Al Franken wins Senate nod amid 7 state primaries
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080910/ap_on_el_ge/state_primaries_15
Al Franken wins Senate nod amid 7 state primaries
By BRIAN BAKST, Associated Press Writer
9-9-8
Comedian Al Franken grabbed the Democratic nomination Tuesday for U.S. Senate in Minnesota, setting up a showdown with Republican Sen. Norm Coleman.
Franken, who gained fame as a "Saturday Night Live" cast member, easily beat six other candidates chasing the Democratic nod. Coleman trounced his only opponent, an expatriate living in Italy.
Minnesota voters joined those in six other states and the District of Columbia in deciding general election matchups. Nominations for House, Senate and governor were on the line, along with the fate of another TV celebrity: Kevin Powell, a former cast member on MTV's "Real World," who lost his bid for Congress in New York.
Franken's celebrity has both helped and hurt him. His coast-to-coast recognition enabled him to amass an impressive bankroll for a first-time candidate, but archives full of racy material provided ammunition to Republicans and his most visible Democratic rival, attorney Priscilla Lord Faris.
Lord Faris, part of a well-regarded family in state Democratic politics, criticized Franken for "angry and offensive public behavior" and said he'd be too easy a target for Coleman and his allies.
With 33 percent of precincts reporting, Franken had 68 percent of the vote to Lord Faris' 28 percent.
"Norm Coleman has become Washington," Franken said. "He's the Washington guy and I'm going to be fighting for Minnesotans."
Coleman sought to make the race about experience in public office.
"Minnesotans have a clear choice on experience," Coleman said. "Minnesotans have a clear choice in terms of record of working with others."
Also factoring into the Senate race, Dean Barkley won a spot on the ballot for the Independence Party, which is a major party in Minnesota.
Al Franken wins Senate nod amid 7 state primaries
By BRIAN BAKST, Associated Press Writer
9-9-8
Comedian Al Franken grabbed the Democratic nomination Tuesday for U.S. Senate in Minnesota, setting up a showdown with Republican Sen. Norm Coleman.
Franken, who gained fame as a "Saturday Night Live" cast member, easily beat six other candidates chasing the Democratic nod. Coleman trounced his only opponent, an expatriate living in Italy.
Minnesota voters joined those in six other states and the District of Columbia in deciding general election matchups. Nominations for House, Senate and governor were on the line, along with the fate of another TV celebrity: Kevin Powell, a former cast member on MTV's "Real World," who lost his bid for Congress in New York.
Franken's celebrity has both helped and hurt him. His coast-to-coast recognition enabled him to amass an impressive bankroll for a first-time candidate, but archives full of racy material provided ammunition to Republicans and his most visible Democratic rival, attorney Priscilla Lord Faris.
Lord Faris, part of a well-regarded family in state Democratic politics, criticized Franken for "angry and offensive public behavior" and said he'd be too easy a target for Coleman and his allies.
With 33 percent of precincts reporting, Franken had 68 percent of the vote to Lord Faris' 28 percent.
"Norm Coleman has become Washington," Franken said. "He's the Washington guy and I'm going to be fighting for Minnesotans."
Coleman sought to make the race about experience in public office.
"Minnesotans have a clear choice on experience," Coleman said. "Minnesotans have a clear choice in terms of record of working with others."
Also factoring into the Senate race, Dean Barkley won a spot on the ballot for the Independence Party, which is a major party in Minnesota.
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
A look at the Senate's '08 election scorecard
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2007/09/a-look-at-the-s.html
A look at the Senate's '08 election scorecard
With Democrat Mark Warner announcing today --- via e-mail and a YouTube video --- that he will seek the Virginia Senate seat Republican John Warner (no relation) is giving up in next year's election, there's little question where one of the happiest places in Washington is located these days.
That would be the headquarters of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, where Mark Warner's decision is being toasted as the latest bit of glad tidings to come its way.
As the former --- and very popular --- governor of Virginia, Warner provides Democrats a strong shot at gaining a Senate seat in a state where they've been on the rebound anyway. More broadly, his candidacy now puts as many as seven GOP-held seats clearly at risk. Depending on the course of a couple of controversies, two more could be in play.
Among Democratic-held seats, meanwhile, one, maybe two, appear in jeopardy.
Bottom-line: barring a major reversal of political trends, Democrats not only are poised to build on the narrow Senate majority they surprisingly captured in the 2006 election, they could substantially expand it.
As this year's debates on the war in Iraq have vividly demonstrated, it's one thing to be in control of the Senate but it's quite another to have a working majority. And that's what could be within the grasp of the Democrats.
Unlike the House, where a simple majority dominates, 60 votes are often needed in the 100-member Senate to keep legislation from being talked to death. Currently, the Democratic caucus numbers 51 (comprising 49 members of the party and two independents who meet with them).
Some Democratic initiatives attract support from the handful of moderate Republicans who remain in the Senate. But time after time this year, an inability to hit the 60-vote mark has thwarted Democratic leaders from pushing their agenda.
It's the prospect of getting much closer to those 60 votes that has Democratic political operatives excited as they eye the next election. And they'll be almost giddy if, on the heels of Warner's announcement, the dream candidate they have in mind for Nebraska decides to take the plunge.
That would be Bob Kerrey, a Democrat who won the governorship and a Senate seat in the traditionally GOP state before retiring from politics a few years back. With Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel telling Nebraskans earlier this week that he would not be seeking reelection, Kerrey is mulling a run to replace him.
Along with Virginia (for sure) and Nebraska (maybe), here are the other at-risk Republican Senate seats in the '08 vote:
* Colorado, where incumbent Wayne Allard is bowing out. Democratic Rep. Mark Udall (son of one-time Democratic presidential contender Mo Udall) is the early favorite to claim the seat.
* Maine, where strong opposition to the Iraq war endangers incumbent Susan Collins.
* New Hampshire, where incumbent John Sununu also must buck an intense antiwar tide. He'll really be under the gun if Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, a former governor, decides to oppose him.
* Minnesota, where the Democratic challenger to incumbent Norm Coleman may be Al Franken, best known nationally for his lengthy stint on Saturday Night Live, as well as for his bestseller, "Rush Limbaugh is a Big Fat Idiot." (Some Democrats worry that Franken might be a bit too edgy for many voters; most bloggers wistfully contemplate his potential for livening up Senate debate).
* Oregon, where incumbent Gordon Smith must struggle to survive his state's Democratic-tilt but could benefit from the lack of a heavy-hitter foe.
In the best-case scenario for Democrats, New Mexico and Alaska could feature competitive contests.
In New Mexico, Republican Pete Domenici has been tarnished by his role in the firing of the U.S. attorney who was based in his state (part of the larger flap that did in Atty. Gen. Alberto Gonzales). Still, he's about as entrenched as a politician can be (he first won his seat in 1972), and has a vast well of support to draw upon.
In Alaska, Republican Ted Stevens will be vulnerable if he becomes further entangled in a corruption probe(he's already endured an FBI search of his home). Still, his time in the Senate exceeds even Domenici's (Stevens won an appointment to his seat in late 1968) and his current problems probably would have to blossom into a full-blown scandal to threaten his reelection chances.
The sole obviously vulnerable Senate Democrat comes from the region where the party is weakest --- the South --- and from the state where poor government response to Hurricane Katrina tainted all politicians --- Louisiana. Incumbent Mary Landrieu will have to overcome both of these factors, but she's shown keen political skills in the past.
Both parties will be closely watching South Dakota, where Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson only recently returned to any semblance of work after suffering a brain hemorrhage in December. Johnson insists he'll run for reelection, but some doubt it. The GOP will make a major push for the seat if he doesn't (and might even if he does, given the questions about his health that almost assuredly will persist).
Perhaps this rosy national picture for Democrats helped nudge Warner back into politics. After all, it was only 11 months ago (almost to the day) that he declared he would not be launching a presidential campaign for which he had been laying the groundwork.
Personal considerations were the main reasons he cited for his decision, saying he wanted to spend more time with his three teenage daughters.
"While politically this appears to be the right time for me to take the plunge, at this point I want to have a real life," Warner said. "And while the chance may never come again, I shouldn't move forward unless I'm willing to put everything else in my life on the back burner."
Like many parents, Warner may have discovered that his teens didn't really want him around the house that much.
-- Don Frederick
September 13, 2007 in Campaigning, Congress, Democratic Politics, Iraq War, Republican Politics, Senate Races
A look at the Senate's '08 election scorecard
With Democrat Mark Warner announcing today --- via e-mail and a YouTube video --- that he will seek the Virginia Senate seat Republican John Warner (no relation) is giving up in next year's election, there's little question where one of the happiest places in Washington is located these days.
That would be the headquarters of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, where Mark Warner's decision is being toasted as the latest bit of glad tidings to come its way.
As the former --- and very popular --- governor of Virginia, Warner provides Democrats a strong shot at gaining a Senate seat in a state where they've been on the rebound anyway. More broadly, his candidacy now puts as many as seven GOP-held seats clearly at risk. Depending on the course of a couple of controversies, two more could be in play.
Among Democratic-held seats, meanwhile, one, maybe two, appear in jeopardy.
Bottom-line: barring a major reversal of political trends, Democrats not only are poised to build on the narrow Senate majority they surprisingly captured in the 2006 election, they could substantially expand it.
As this year's debates on the war in Iraq have vividly demonstrated, it's one thing to be in control of the Senate but it's quite another to have a working majority. And that's what could be within the grasp of the Democrats.
Unlike the House, where a simple majority dominates, 60 votes are often needed in the 100-member Senate to keep legislation from being talked to death. Currently, the Democratic caucus numbers 51 (comprising 49 members of the party and two independents who meet with them).
Some Democratic initiatives attract support from the handful of moderate Republicans who remain in the Senate. But time after time this year, an inability to hit the 60-vote mark has thwarted Democratic leaders from pushing their agenda.
It's the prospect of getting much closer to those 60 votes that has Democratic political operatives excited as they eye the next election. And they'll be almost giddy if, on the heels of Warner's announcement, the dream candidate they have in mind for Nebraska decides to take the plunge.
That would be Bob Kerrey, a Democrat who won the governorship and a Senate seat in the traditionally GOP state before retiring from politics a few years back. With Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel telling Nebraskans earlier this week that he would not be seeking reelection, Kerrey is mulling a run to replace him.
Along with Virginia (for sure) and Nebraska (maybe), here are the other at-risk Republican Senate seats in the '08 vote:
* Colorado, where incumbent Wayne Allard is bowing out. Democratic Rep. Mark Udall (son of one-time Democratic presidential contender Mo Udall) is the early favorite to claim the seat.
* Maine, where strong opposition to the Iraq war endangers incumbent Susan Collins.
* New Hampshire, where incumbent John Sununu also must buck an intense antiwar tide. He'll really be under the gun if Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, a former governor, decides to oppose him.
* Minnesota, where the Democratic challenger to incumbent Norm Coleman may be Al Franken, best known nationally for his lengthy stint on Saturday Night Live, as well as for his bestseller, "Rush Limbaugh is a Big Fat Idiot." (Some Democrats worry that Franken might be a bit too edgy for many voters; most bloggers wistfully contemplate his potential for livening up Senate debate).
* Oregon, where incumbent Gordon Smith must struggle to survive his state's Democratic-tilt but could benefit from the lack of a heavy-hitter foe.
In the best-case scenario for Democrats, New Mexico and Alaska could feature competitive contests.
In New Mexico, Republican Pete Domenici has been tarnished by his role in the firing of the U.S. attorney who was based in his state (part of the larger flap that did in Atty. Gen. Alberto Gonzales). Still, he's about as entrenched as a politician can be (he first won his seat in 1972), and has a vast well of support to draw upon.
In Alaska, Republican Ted Stevens will be vulnerable if he becomes further entangled in a corruption probe(he's already endured an FBI search of his home). Still, his time in the Senate exceeds even Domenici's (Stevens won an appointment to his seat in late 1968) and his current problems probably would have to blossom into a full-blown scandal to threaten his reelection chances.
The sole obviously vulnerable Senate Democrat comes from the region where the party is weakest --- the South --- and from the state where poor government response to Hurricane Katrina tainted all politicians --- Louisiana. Incumbent Mary Landrieu will have to overcome both of these factors, but she's shown keen political skills in the past.
Both parties will be closely watching South Dakota, where Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson only recently returned to any semblance of work after suffering a brain hemorrhage in December. Johnson insists he'll run for reelection, but some doubt it. The GOP will make a major push for the seat if he doesn't (and might even if he does, given the questions about his health that almost assuredly will persist).
Perhaps this rosy national picture for Democrats helped nudge Warner back into politics. After all, it was only 11 months ago (almost to the day) that he declared he would not be launching a presidential campaign for which he had been laying the groundwork.
Personal considerations were the main reasons he cited for his decision, saying he wanted to spend more time with his three teenage daughters.
"While politically this appears to be the right time for me to take the plunge, at this point I want to have a real life," Warner said. "And while the chance may never come again, I shouldn't move forward unless I'm willing to put everything else in my life on the back burner."
Like many parents, Warner may have discovered that his teens didn't really want him around the house that much.
-- Don Frederick
September 13, 2007 in Campaigning, Congress, Democratic Politics, Iraq War, Republican Politics, Senate Races
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