http://www.salon.com/news/politics/war_room/2010/09/30/obama_2012_republicans/index.html
Thursday, Sep 30, 2010
Obama's 2012 insurance policy?
It's remarkable how many of the Republicans in the '12 mix are spectacularly unelectable
Steve Kornacki
What may be most notable in the new Gallup poll on the 2012 Republican presidential race is the significant distance between Mitt Romney, who leads the crowded pack with 19 percent, and the next candidate without obvious and glaring general election liabilities. Just consider the results:
Romney 19%
Sarah Palin 16%
Mike Huckabee 12%
Newt Gingrich 9%
Ron Paul 7%
Tim Pawlenty 3%
With the disclaimer that anything is possible (and the obligatory acknowledgement that many Democrats didn't believe until the very end in 1980 that Ronald Reagan could ever actually win the Whitre House), it's hard to imagine Palin, Huckabee, Gingrich or Paul winning a general election in 2012, even if the economy hasn't improved significantly. They just carry too much baggage, and nominating one of them would likely produce something like what we're now seeing in Delaware, where a radioactive GOP nominee is about to cost the GOP a seat it would otherwise win.
I can't remember so many poiosnous general election prospects near the top of the GOP field at this stage in any recent contest. Last time around, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani and (sort of) Romney were all near the top of the pack early. All of them passed the November electability test. (Sure, McCain fell flat against Barack Obama, but that was more a testament to the political climate; that same race in the climate of, say, 2004, could well have produced a different result.) Back in the 2000 cycle, the big GOP fish included George W. Bush, Elizabeth Dole and McCain. For 1996, we had Bob Dole and Jack Kemp, and in 1988, George H.W. Bush, Dole and Kemp. Sure, there were some toxic prospects in these cycles (Dan Quayle figured prominently in '96 talk and actually ran -- briefly -- in '00), but in each race had more than one general election heavyweight out front early. Not so for 2012.
Moreover, as NBC's First Read noted this morning, Romney's grip on the frontrunner's slot is unusually tenuous. The GOP's conservative base is markedly cooler to him than it was to McCain at this point in the '08 cycle and Dole at this point in the '96 cycle, even as that same base seems to be warming up even more to Palin, Gingrich and Huckabee. Factor in the most alarming GOP Senate primary results this year -- a Republican electorate in Delaware that willfully committed political suicide, for instance -- and it's fair to questions the assumption that the GOP primary electorate of 2012 will be as pragamtic as it's been in the past. Don't forget: the last time the Republican base was as angry at its own establishment as it is now was in the late '70s. Back then, the favorite of the restive right for the next GOP nomination also happened to be the next-in-line guy: Reagan. But Romney, to borrow a tired expression, is no Ronald Reagan. To the New Right of the late '70s, Reagan was practically a god. To the Tea Party, though, Romney is just a somewhat likable, extremely ambitious office-seeker.
This should provide at least a little comfort to Barack Obama. I've written before that his 2012 fate will rest on the economy. If it improves significantly between now and then, he'll win, no matter whom the GOP nominates. And if it doesn't, he'll be in serious trouble. But the evolution of the GOP in the Obama era suggests a third possibility: that the economy will be weak enough to give the GOP a winnable race in 2012 -- but that they'll nominate a candidate who's incapable of taking advantage of it.
Steve Kornacki is Salon's news editor. Reach him by email at SKornacki@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @SteveKornacki
Showing posts with label Tim Pawlenty. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tim Pawlenty. Show all posts
Friday, October 8, 2010
Thursday, September 23, 2010
At Least 17 Republicans in 2012 Presidential Election Field
http://politics.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2010/09/10/at-least-17-republicans-in-2012-presidential-election-field
At Least 17 Republicans in 2012 Presidential Election Field
Paul Bedard
September 10, 2010
When Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour told us this week that the 2012 GOP presidential field will be "wide open," we had no idea just how many Republicans might be marching to Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada for the opening caucuses and primaries. Including Barbour, who will decide after the fall midterm elections but who is expected to run in 2012, Washington political insiders tell us that nine Republicans are almost a lock to run and another eight are considering a presidential bid.
Many former presidential campaign organizers say that now is the time to be considering a bid because by spring of next year, the list of announced candidates will be firm and those in will be divvying up staff and raising money.
The top tier of candidates includes many in the news like Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney, but some newbies have scratched their way into the category like budget-slashing New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Long shots include some who've already made trips to Iowa, like former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.
"A starting place. That's all anybody has," said Barbour, dismissing talk of front-runners this far out of the election.
Here's the latest list of those who want President Obama's job.
The A-Team Nine
- Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the front-runner, largely because he was the runner-up to Sen. John McCain in 2008.
- Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who has recently made a name for herself by endorsing winning Tea Party candidates.
- Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, a social conservative in his second term.
- Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, a fiscal conservative in his second term.
- Mike Huckabee, a Fox host and former 2008 presidential candidate.
- Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.
- South Dakota Sen. John Thune, a conservative and darling of the party for defeating former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle in 2004.
- New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, whose budget cutting in his first year has impressed many in GOP ranks who want him to apply his touch to Washington.
- Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, already running and showing his conservative side.
The Eight Long Shots
- Indiana Rep. Mike Pence, a hero to fiscal conservatives.
- South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint, a Palinesque conservative who's helped steer the U.S. Senate to the right.
- Texas Rep. Ron Paul, the gadfly 2008 candidate who kept a very loyal following.
- South Carolina Republican gubernatorial candidate Nikki Haley, who hasn't even won yet but is being heralded as the new Sarah Palin.
- Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush who has rejected a run but who still gets kudos for being the "smart Bush" for his successful two terms in Florida.
- Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, who'd be the social conservative in the race.
- Former United Nations Ambassador John Bolton, a foreign policy hawk who conservatives adore.
- Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal whose effort to protect his shores from the Gulf Oil Spill won him notoriety lost when he gave a lackluster national political address in 2009.
At Least 17 Republicans in 2012 Presidential Election Field
Paul Bedard
September 10, 2010
When Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour told us this week that the 2012 GOP presidential field will be "wide open," we had no idea just how many Republicans might be marching to Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada for the opening caucuses and primaries. Including Barbour, who will decide after the fall midterm elections but who is expected to run in 2012, Washington political insiders tell us that nine Republicans are almost a lock to run and another eight are considering a presidential bid.
Many former presidential campaign organizers say that now is the time to be considering a bid because by spring of next year, the list of announced candidates will be firm and those in will be divvying up staff and raising money.
The top tier of candidates includes many in the news like Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney, but some newbies have scratched their way into the category like budget-slashing New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Long shots include some who've already made trips to Iowa, like former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.
"A starting place. That's all anybody has," said Barbour, dismissing talk of front-runners this far out of the election.
Here's the latest list of those who want President Obama's job.
The A-Team Nine
- Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the front-runner, largely because he was the runner-up to Sen. John McCain in 2008.
- Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who has recently made a name for herself by endorsing winning Tea Party candidates.
- Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, a social conservative in his second term.
- Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, a fiscal conservative in his second term.
- Mike Huckabee, a Fox host and former 2008 presidential candidate.
- Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.
- South Dakota Sen. John Thune, a conservative and darling of the party for defeating former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle in 2004.
- New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, whose budget cutting in his first year has impressed many in GOP ranks who want him to apply his touch to Washington.
- Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, already running and showing his conservative side.
The Eight Long Shots
- Indiana Rep. Mike Pence, a hero to fiscal conservatives.
- South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint, a Palinesque conservative who's helped steer the U.S. Senate to the right.
- Texas Rep. Ron Paul, the gadfly 2008 candidate who kept a very loyal following.
- South Carolina Republican gubernatorial candidate Nikki Haley, who hasn't even won yet but is being heralded as the new Sarah Palin.
- Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush who has rejected a run but who still gets kudos for being the "smart Bush" for his successful two terms in Florida.
- Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, who'd be the social conservative in the race.
- Former United Nations Ambassador John Bolton, a foreign policy hawk who conservatives adore.
- Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal whose effort to protect his shores from the Gulf Oil Spill won him notoriety lost when he gave a lackluster national political address in 2009.
Friday, January 29, 2010
Silver Lining for Vikings Fans (Politically)
by Dave Zirin
http://www.thenation.com/blogs/notion/521374/silver_lining_for_vikings_fans_politically
This is a day to empathize with the agony amongst the long-suffering fans of the Minnesota Vikings. With a trip to the Super Bowl in their buttery grasp, they fumbled it all away. In a game they largely dominated from start-to-finish, the Vikes lost in overtime to the New Orleans Saints in the NFC Championship Game, 31-28. Miscues, interceptions, and some questionable calls will have Vikings Nation asking "what if" for the next nine months.
Yes, there is misery in Minnesota. But there is also a silver lining, and I'm not talking about the joy in Green Bay at the spectacular fall of Minnesota QB Brett Favre. Vikings owner Zygi Wilf was locked and loaded to arrive at the Minnesota State Legislature on February 4 - three days before the Super Bowl - to press for a new $1 billion stadium with $700 million to be paid by the taxpayers. The Vikings, like many teams, is holding up the specter of moving the franchise to Los Angeles if they don't get a nine-figure welfare check. With the state's phony populist absentee governor Tim "Glass Jaw" Pawlenty saying little more than, "We have to keep the Vikings no matter what," Wilf was ready to roll the state's taxpayers. But now that the team has failed to reach the Big Game, the wind is out of Wilf's sails and Zygi is no longer coated with stardust. This isn't to say that Wilf won't emerge triumphant, but without the team in the Super Bowl, it's much more apparent that he will have a fight on his hands.
As Minnesota resident and dogged stadium opponent Willard Shapira wrote, "Most communities around the U.S. have caved in to such outrageous demands but socially concerned Minnesotans are fighting the Vikings tooth and nail. Others around the U.S. battling big-money and establishment power politics would take heart from a public victory over the Vikings and their gang of arrogant, plutocratic conspirators in business, politics and the media."
Remember that Minnesotans repeatedly rejected the Twins billionaire owner Carl Pohlad's efforts to get a new baseball stadium on the public dime. Despite their votes, Pawlenty rammed the $500 million facility through the legislature and it opens for business this spring. Now the owner called "the Big Bad Wilf" wants his piece of the public pie, recession be damned. The Vikings failure to make the Super Bowl makes his effort far more perilous.
On the flip side, and ever so ironically, New Orleans first trip to the Super Bowl makes it a near impossibility for the Saints owners, the Benson family, to fulfill their pre-Katrina dreams of moving their franchise to the City of Angels. If they made that move, I'm convinced that the Crescent City would implode with grief. Now, as a Super Bowl team, that move becomes a political impossibility.
Therefore in one tense contest to see who would ascend to the Super Bowl, two sets of owners saw their most treasured dreams to burn tax payers and break hearts go up in smoke. That's something all fans should cheer. Even in Minnesota.
Dave Zirin is the author of the forthcoming “Bad Sports: How Owners are Ruining the Games we Love” (Scribner) Receive his column every week by emailing dave@edgeofsports.com. Contact him at edgeofsports@gmail.com.
http://www.thenation.com/blogs/notion/521374/silver_lining_for_vikings_fans_politically
This is a day to empathize with the agony amongst the long-suffering fans of the Minnesota Vikings. With a trip to the Super Bowl in their buttery grasp, they fumbled it all away. In a game they largely dominated from start-to-finish, the Vikes lost in overtime to the New Orleans Saints in the NFC Championship Game, 31-28. Miscues, interceptions, and some questionable calls will have Vikings Nation asking "what if" for the next nine months.
Yes, there is misery in Minnesota. But there is also a silver lining, and I'm not talking about the joy in Green Bay at the spectacular fall of Minnesota QB Brett Favre. Vikings owner Zygi Wilf was locked and loaded to arrive at the Minnesota State Legislature on February 4 - three days before the Super Bowl - to press for a new $1 billion stadium with $700 million to be paid by the taxpayers. The Vikings, like many teams, is holding up the specter of moving the franchise to Los Angeles if they don't get a nine-figure welfare check. With the state's phony populist absentee governor Tim "Glass Jaw" Pawlenty saying little more than, "We have to keep the Vikings no matter what," Wilf was ready to roll the state's taxpayers. But now that the team has failed to reach the Big Game, the wind is out of Wilf's sails and Zygi is no longer coated with stardust. This isn't to say that Wilf won't emerge triumphant, but without the team in the Super Bowl, it's much more apparent that he will have a fight on his hands.
As Minnesota resident and dogged stadium opponent Willard Shapira wrote, "Most communities around the U.S. have caved in to such outrageous demands but socially concerned Minnesotans are fighting the Vikings tooth and nail. Others around the U.S. battling big-money and establishment power politics would take heart from a public victory over the Vikings and their gang of arrogant, plutocratic conspirators in business, politics and the media."
Remember that Minnesotans repeatedly rejected the Twins billionaire owner Carl Pohlad's efforts to get a new baseball stadium on the public dime. Despite their votes, Pawlenty rammed the $500 million facility through the legislature and it opens for business this spring. Now the owner called "the Big Bad Wilf" wants his piece of the public pie, recession be damned. The Vikings failure to make the Super Bowl makes his effort far more perilous.
On the flip side, and ever so ironically, New Orleans first trip to the Super Bowl makes it a near impossibility for the Saints owners, the Benson family, to fulfill their pre-Katrina dreams of moving their franchise to the City of Angels. If they made that move, I'm convinced that the Crescent City would implode with grief. Now, as a Super Bowl team, that move becomes a political impossibility.
Therefore in one tense contest to see who would ascend to the Super Bowl, two sets of owners saw their most treasured dreams to burn tax payers and break hearts go up in smoke. That's something all fans should cheer. Even in Minnesota.
Dave Zirin is the author of the forthcoming “Bad Sports: How Owners are Ruining the Games we Love” (Scribner) Receive his column every week by emailing dave@edgeofsports.com. Contact him at edgeofsports@gmail.com.
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Narrowing List of Presidential Prospects
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/06/25/pub-gop-presidential-prospects/
For Republicans, a Narrowing List of Presidential Prospects
Nevada Sen. John Ensign's and South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford's extramarital affairs are the latest blow to the GOP as the Republican presidential herd thins fast -- leaving many to wonder who will lead the party in its attempt to reclaim the White House.
By Cristina Corbin
FOXNews.com
Saturday, June 27, 2009
The Grand Old Party's 2012 presidential pool isn't looking so grand these days.
Add Nevada Sen. John Ensign's and South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford's extramarital affairs to Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal's unconvincing TV speech and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's family dramas, and the Republican presidential herd is thinning fast -- leaving many to wonder who will lead the party in its attempt to reclaim the White House.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, Virginia Rep. Eric Cantor, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels are the names now being whispered in Republican circles as potential winners -- although observers admit political speculations can change overnight.
"It's way too early to be playing the name game," said Dana Perino, former White House press secretary for President George W. Bush.
"I believe it will be a governor," said Nick Ayers, executive director of the Republican Governors Association.
Ayers also stressed that it is far too early to make projections, but he said Pawlenty, Jindal and Romney are among the most promising prospects.
But, he added, "The list goes on and on."
Ayers said Republicans are well-positioned for a comeback in 2012, but focusing on a candidate short list now is "totally irrelevant to the rebuilding of the party."
He added that the nomination could very well go to someone with little name recognition.
"When George W. Bush got re-elected in 2004, Barack Obama was a state legislator," Ayers said.
Still, as Republicans continue to battle a Democratic-controlled Congress and White House as well as recent scandals within their own party, talk naturally falls to who will emerge as the GOP nominee.
Barbour's appearance in New Hampshire for a party fundraiser on Wednesday got some attention.
Barbour, who has replaced Sanford as chairman of the Republican Governor's Association, has been on a tour of New Hampshire and Iowa this week, the nation's first primary and caucuses states, and arguably a make-or-break destination for presidential candidates.
Barbour told FOX News he has "no plans to run for president" even as he warned: "never say never."
The Mississippi governor, who once served as Republican National Committee chairman, was elected to office in 2003 and re-elected in 2007. He was praised for his handling of the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
But a would-be candidate also faces the prospect of a Romney run. The former Massachusetts governor has earned credit for his business credentials and budget management.
Romney, who worked as a CEO of a management consulting firm and co-founder of a private equity firm, has a formidable resume -- one some political observers say may be the best weapon for a party looking for a comeback.
Jindal, perceived by many as a rising star within the party, has also been named a possible choice. But the 37-year-old son of Indian immigrants was roundly criticized for what many perceived as a childish and weak televised response to Obama's address to the nation in February.
Daniels, 60, gained praise for his commencement speech at Butler University in Indianapolis, in which he blasted baby boomers as self-indulgent. The Indiana governor, who served as the director of the Office of Management and Budget under the Bush administration, also won a second term overwhelmingly in a state carried by Obama during the election.
In a May 2009 FOX News poll, the majority of respondents said former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani would likely be the top contender -- followed by Romney, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Palin.
Giuliani said in May he has not ruled out the possibility of launching a second bid for the presidency.
But as the GOP searches for its most promising candidate, the party will need to find someone who can address public perceptions of the party as intolerant and irrelevant, not to mention marred by politicians who on the one hand are caught up in extramarital affairs while on the other they preach of family values.
Insiders say the party need not be shaken by Ensign's and Sanford's recent confessions or a seemingly slim presidential list.
"The Sanford and Ensign stories are unfortunate, but they don't define Republican principles -- those are well-defined, and we need to focus on them: keeping the country safe, keeping the country capitalist and free, and keeping focused on solutions for energy and health care," said Perino.
For Republicans, a Narrowing List of Presidential Prospects
Nevada Sen. John Ensign's and South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford's extramarital affairs are the latest blow to the GOP as the Republican presidential herd thins fast -- leaving many to wonder who will lead the party in its attempt to reclaim the White House.
By Cristina Corbin
FOXNews.com
Saturday, June 27, 2009
The Grand Old Party's 2012 presidential pool isn't looking so grand these days.
Add Nevada Sen. John Ensign's and South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford's extramarital affairs to Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal's unconvincing TV speech and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's family dramas, and the Republican presidential herd is thinning fast -- leaving many to wonder who will lead the party in its attempt to reclaim the White House.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, Virginia Rep. Eric Cantor, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels are the names now being whispered in Republican circles as potential winners -- although observers admit political speculations can change overnight.
"It's way too early to be playing the name game," said Dana Perino, former White House press secretary for President George W. Bush.
"I believe it will be a governor," said Nick Ayers, executive director of the Republican Governors Association.
Ayers also stressed that it is far too early to make projections, but he said Pawlenty, Jindal and Romney are among the most promising prospects.
But, he added, "The list goes on and on."
Ayers said Republicans are well-positioned for a comeback in 2012, but focusing on a candidate short list now is "totally irrelevant to the rebuilding of the party."
He added that the nomination could very well go to someone with little name recognition.
"When George W. Bush got re-elected in 2004, Barack Obama was a state legislator," Ayers said.
Still, as Republicans continue to battle a Democratic-controlled Congress and White House as well as recent scandals within their own party, talk naturally falls to who will emerge as the GOP nominee.
Barbour's appearance in New Hampshire for a party fundraiser on Wednesday got some attention.
Barbour, who has replaced Sanford as chairman of the Republican Governor's Association, has been on a tour of New Hampshire and Iowa this week, the nation's first primary and caucuses states, and arguably a make-or-break destination for presidential candidates.
Barbour told FOX News he has "no plans to run for president" even as he warned: "never say never."
The Mississippi governor, who once served as Republican National Committee chairman, was elected to office in 2003 and re-elected in 2007. He was praised for his handling of the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
But a would-be candidate also faces the prospect of a Romney run. The former Massachusetts governor has earned credit for his business credentials and budget management.
Romney, who worked as a CEO of a management consulting firm and co-founder of a private equity firm, has a formidable resume -- one some political observers say may be the best weapon for a party looking for a comeback.
Jindal, perceived by many as a rising star within the party, has also been named a possible choice. But the 37-year-old son of Indian immigrants was roundly criticized for what many perceived as a childish and weak televised response to Obama's address to the nation in February.
Daniels, 60, gained praise for his commencement speech at Butler University in Indianapolis, in which he blasted baby boomers as self-indulgent. The Indiana governor, who served as the director of the Office of Management and Budget under the Bush administration, also won a second term overwhelmingly in a state carried by Obama during the election.
In a May 2009 FOX News poll, the majority of respondents said former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani would likely be the top contender -- followed by Romney, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Palin.
Giuliani said in May he has not ruled out the possibility of launching a second bid for the presidency.
But as the GOP searches for its most promising candidate, the party will need to find someone who can address public perceptions of the party as intolerant and irrelevant, not to mention marred by politicians who on the one hand are caught up in extramarital affairs while on the other they preach of family values.
Insiders say the party need not be shaken by Ensign's and Sanford's recent confessions or a seemingly slim presidential list.
"The Sanford and Ensign stories are unfortunate, but they don't define Republican principles -- those are well-defined, and we need to focus on them: keeping the country safe, keeping the country capitalist and free, and keeping focused on solutions for energy and health care," said Perino.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Republicans Gear Up for 2012 Race
http://news.aol.com/elections/article/republicans-gear-up-for-2012-race/242287
Republicans Gear Up for 2012 Race
By Jonathan Martin, Politico.com
(Nov. 9) - Votes are still being counted in some races in last Tuesday’s election, but no matter: Talk of the potential Republican field in the 2012 presidential election is already underway.
Too early? Too bad — just look around.
Two potential candidates will be in Iowa before month’s end, multiple prospects — almost certainly including Sarah Palin — will make high-profile appearances next week at the Republican Governors Association (RGA) meeting, and Newt Gingrich’s name has already been floated in a Bob Novak column.
For a party anxious to move past a brutal election up and down the ballot, and especially a presidential campaign it would just as soon forget, it’s not too soon to start thinking about "next time," as the pros call it.
Now officially, of course, any talk of a presidential run is verboten.
“Oh, man,” drawled Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, when asked about 2012 and specifically his own interest in a possible presidential run. “I’m going to tell you something. One of the worst things that can happen to the Republican Party in our effort to rebuild is for a bunch of people to start running for president. Anybody harboring that ambition needs to squelch it until after 2010. … Anybody out there running for president is undercutting what’s important. You do this against your own interest.”
Following Barbour’s admonition, every likely candidate asked the same question by Politico demurred in all the time-honored ways politicians demur about such questions.
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee: “That’s way too far away.”
Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal: “The most important thing I can do is be the best governor of Louisiana.”
South Dakota Sen. John Thune: “I’m just looking to help the team.”
Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty: “My day job is an honor and a privilege, and my focus is here.”
That is, according to the holy “don’t-get-beyond-the-next-cycle” writ of presidential politics, what they must say.
But don’t watch their mouths — keep an eye on their feet.
Huckabee, winner of the 2008 Iowa caucuses, returns to the Hawkeye State Nov. 20 for stops in Cedar Rapids and Des Moines to hawk his new book, “Do the Right Thing: Inside the Movement That's Bringing Common Sense Back to America.”
Huckabee, who is making his trek in a campaign-style bus with his likeness emblazoned on the side, is also slated to make five stops in South Carolina. The Palmetto State is home to the first-in-the-South GOP primary and a reliable indicator of who will get the party’s nomination in every primary since 1980. It was also Huckabee’s Waterloo this year, the place where he saw his presidential hopes slip away when Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney cut into his conservative vote share and enabled John McCain to snare a plurality win.
The book, he said, “makes the connection between conservative fiscal and social policy.”
“The size and scope of government is related to the way people behave,” noted Huckabee, who is also keeping his name fresh in the minds of Republican activists with a weekly talk show on Fox News.
Jindal, elected governor of Louisiana in 2007 after serving in Congress and holding health care posts in state and federal government, makes his first trip to Iowa on Nov. 22.
He’s keynoting the statewide banquet of the Iowa Family Policy Center, a Christian conservative group, in suburban Des Moines and will tour flood-ravaged Cedar Rapids, offering his insights as a hurricane-state governor to state and local officials.
Though only 37 and in his first year in statewide office, Jindal is already drawing rave reviews.
Asked in a post-election chat which Republican officeholders impressed him during the campaign, McCain campaign chief Steve Schmidt didn’t hesitate: “Bobby Jindal, no question.”
Anti-tax crusader Grover Norquist, who wanted Jindal to be McCain’s vice presidential nominee this year, said flatly: “Jindal will be president. I don’t know the year.”
Thune, who is eyeing a Senate leadership post, is likely to keep the majority of his travel confined between the Badlands and Siouxland. The freshman senator is up for re-election in 2010, and Democrats would like nothing more than to knock him off and ensure that their tall, handsome, hoops-loving president doesn’t have to worry about facing a tall, handsome, hoops-loving Republican in 2012. That he also knocked off Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, a close Barack Obama confidant, only adds to the Democratic desire to send him the way of George Allen.
But to get a sense of Thune’s ambitions, look back, not forward, on the calendar. Since coming to the Senate, he’s been a hot ticket for GOP Lincoln Day dinners. Freshman senators from the Great Plains don’t trek to such party fundraisers in Kent County, Mich., (Grand Rapids) and Hillsborough County, Fla., (Tampa) because they like the chicken and rice pilaf.
Pawlenty, a runner-up in McCain’s veepstakes and frequent surrogate for the Arizona senator, will make his presence known this week in Miami, when the RGA holds its annual conference. He’ll be featured at the kickoff luncheon and then appear at two more open press roundtables in what will effectively be the first of many GOP cattle calls ahead of the 2012 contest.
Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, another potential 2012 aspirant and the event’s host, will close the session by giving a speech Thursday night focused on broadening the party, according to his closet political adviser.
“We can’t win with what we have right now,” said George LeMieux, who ran Crist’s 2006 gubernatorial run, a rare bright spot in a difficult cycle for Republicans.
Crist made inroads with African-Americans in his 2006 race and feels strongly about making the GOP more inclusive — a demographic imperative made clear by Tuesday’s election.
Predictably, LeMieux offered a standard-issue demurral on behalf of Crist when asked about 2012.
Barbour, Jindal and other prospects such as Texas Gov. Rick Perry, South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford and Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman will also brave the November weather at the InterContinental Miami.
But there is little doubt who will be the star of the show: Palin is virtually certain to make her first official post-election public appearance in the Lower 48 at the RGA, according to GOP sources.
Asked about a future run by CNN’s Dana Bash in the Phoenix Biltmore lobby on Wednesday, Palin said that “2012 sounds so far off that I can't even imagine what I'd be doing then.”
A source close to the Alaska governor says that she has been bruised by the finger-pointing in her direction by anonymous campaign aides — something made plain by her denunciation of them as “cowards” upon returning home Friday — but that she’s also “clearly an ambitious woman.”
Then there is Mitt Romney.
The former Massachusetts governor was a dogged surrogate on McCain’s behalf after their sometimes-bitter primary campaign and retains a loyal following in the party.
He declined an interview — he’s actually in Alaska on a cruise sponsored by National Review, a magazine that endorsed him in the GOP primary — but sources close to the CEO-turned-politician say he’s very much uncertain about whether he’ll run for elective office again and is keeping a close eye on what direction the party takes in the months ahead, especially with regard to Palin.
Romney is extraordinarily close to members of his family, and most are opposed to another run.
He is, though, likely to stay involved at least at a policy level.
“What I’d say is he’s keeping his options open for now,” said one source close to Romney.
And as for Gingrich, the always-plugged-in Novak seems to think he’s running, and other longtime Republicans around Washington say the same of the former House speaker.
His spokesman, Rick Tyler, even hints that it may be a possibility — edging dangerously close to speaking the unspeakable.
“We’ll see what Barack Obama does,” said Tyler.
Republicans Gear Up for 2012 Race
By Jonathan Martin, Politico.com
(Nov. 9) - Votes are still being counted in some races in last Tuesday’s election, but no matter: Talk of the potential Republican field in the 2012 presidential election is already underway.
Too early? Too bad — just look around.
Two potential candidates will be in Iowa before month’s end, multiple prospects — almost certainly including Sarah Palin — will make high-profile appearances next week at the Republican Governors Association (RGA) meeting, and Newt Gingrich’s name has already been floated in a Bob Novak column.
For a party anxious to move past a brutal election up and down the ballot, and especially a presidential campaign it would just as soon forget, it’s not too soon to start thinking about "next time," as the pros call it.
Now officially, of course, any talk of a presidential run is verboten.
“Oh, man,” drawled Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, when asked about 2012 and specifically his own interest in a possible presidential run. “I’m going to tell you something. One of the worst things that can happen to the Republican Party in our effort to rebuild is for a bunch of people to start running for president. Anybody harboring that ambition needs to squelch it until after 2010. … Anybody out there running for president is undercutting what’s important. You do this against your own interest.”
Following Barbour’s admonition, every likely candidate asked the same question by Politico demurred in all the time-honored ways politicians demur about such questions.
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee: “That’s way too far away.”
Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal: “The most important thing I can do is be the best governor of Louisiana.”
South Dakota Sen. John Thune: “I’m just looking to help the team.”
Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty: “My day job is an honor and a privilege, and my focus is here.”
That is, according to the holy “don’t-get-beyond-the-next-cycle” writ of presidential politics, what they must say.
But don’t watch their mouths — keep an eye on their feet.
Huckabee, winner of the 2008 Iowa caucuses, returns to the Hawkeye State Nov. 20 for stops in Cedar Rapids and Des Moines to hawk his new book, “Do the Right Thing: Inside the Movement That's Bringing Common Sense Back to America.”
Huckabee, who is making his trek in a campaign-style bus with his likeness emblazoned on the side, is also slated to make five stops in South Carolina. The Palmetto State is home to the first-in-the-South GOP primary and a reliable indicator of who will get the party’s nomination in every primary since 1980. It was also Huckabee’s Waterloo this year, the place where he saw his presidential hopes slip away when Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney cut into his conservative vote share and enabled John McCain to snare a plurality win.
The book, he said, “makes the connection between conservative fiscal and social policy.”
“The size and scope of government is related to the way people behave,” noted Huckabee, who is also keeping his name fresh in the minds of Republican activists with a weekly talk show on Fox News.
Jindal, elected governor of Louisiana in 2007 after serving in Congress and holding health care posts in state and federal government, makes his first trip to Iowa on Nov. 22.
He’s keynoting the statewide banquet of the Iowa Family Policy Center, a Christian conservative group, in suburban Des Moines and will tour flood-ravaged Cedar Rapids, offering his insights as a hurricane-state governor to state and local officials.
Though only 37 and in his first year in statewide office, Jindal is already drawing rave reviews.
Asked in a post-election chat which Republican officeholders impressed him during the campaign, McCain campaign chief Steve Schmidt didn’t hesitate: “Bobby Jindal, no question.”
Anti-tax crusader Grover Norquist, who wanted Jindal to be McCain’s vice presidential nominee this year, said flatly: “Jindal will be president. I don’t know the year.”
Thune, who is eyeing a Senate leadership post, is likely to keep the majority of his travel confined between the Badlands and Siouxland. The freshman senator is up for re-election in 2010, and Democrats would like nothing more than to knock him off and ensure that their tall, handsome, hoops-loving president doesn’t have to worry about facing a tall, handsome, hoops-loving Republican in 2012. That he also knocked off Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, a close Barack Obama confidant, only adds to the Democratic desire to send him the way of George Allen.
But to get a sense of Thune’s ambitions, look back, not forward, on the calendar. Since coming to the Senate, he’s been a hot ticket for GOP Lincoln Day dinners. Freshman senators from the Great Plains don’t trek to such party fundraisers in Kent County, Mich., (Grand Rapids) and Hillsborough County, Fla., (Tampa) because they like the chicken and rice pilaf.
Pawlenty, a runner-up in McCain’s veepstakes and frequent surrogate for the Arizona senator, will make his presence known this week in Miami, when the RGA holds its annual conference. He’ll be featured at the kickoff luncheon and then appear at two more open press roundtables in what will effectively be the first of many GOP cattle calls ahead of the 2012 contest.
Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, another potential 2012 aspirant and the event’s host, will close the session by giving a speech Thursday night focused on broadening the party, according to his closet political adviser.
“We can’t win with what we have right now,” said George LeMieux, who ran Crist’s 2006 gubernatorial run, a rare bright spot in a difficult cycle for Republicans.
Crist made inroads with African-Americans in his 2006 race and feels strongly about making the GOP more inclusive — a demographic imperative made clear by Tuesday’s election.
Predictably, LeMieux offered a standard-issue demurral on behalf of Crist when asked about 2012.
Barbour, Jindal and other prospects such as Texas Gov. Rick Perry, South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford and Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman will also brave the November weather at the InterContinental Miami.
But there is little doubt who will be the star of the show: Palin is virtually certain to make her first official post-election public appearance in the Lower 48 at the RGA, according to GOP sources.
Asked about a future run by CNN’s Dana Bash in the Phoenix Biltmore lobby on Wednesday, Palin said that “2012 sounds so far off that I can't even imagine what I'd be doing then.”
A source close to the Alaska governor says that she has been bruised by the finger-pointing in her direction by anonymous campaign aides — something made plain by her denunciation of them as “cowards” upon returning home Friday — but that she’s also “clearly an ambitious woman.”
Then there is Mitt Romney.
The former Massachusetts governor was a dogged surrogate on McCain’s behalf after their sometimes-bitter primary campaign and retains a loyal following in the party.
He declined an interview — he’s actually in Alaska on a cruise sponsored by National Review, a magazine that endorsed him in the GOP primary — but sources close to the CEO-turned-politician say he’s very much uncertain about whether he’ll run for elective office again and is keeping a close eye on what direction the party takes in the months ahead, especially with regard to Palin.
Romney is extraordinarily close to members of his family, and most are opposed to another run.
He is, though, likely to stay involved at least at a policy level.
“What I’d say is he’s keeping his options open for now,” said one source close to Romney.
And as for Gingrich, the always-plugged-in Novak seems to think he’s running, and other longtime Republicans around Washington say the same of the former House speaker.
His spokesman, Rick Tyler, even hints that it may be a possibility — edging dangerously close to speaking the unspeakable.
“We’ll see what Barack Obama does,” said Tyler.
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Top ten McCain Vice Presidential picks
http://timesonline.typepad.com/comment/2008/05/a-heartbeat-awa.html
May 16, 2008
Top ten McCain Vice Presidential picks
Daniel Finkelstein
McCain needs to pick his partner very carefully. A heartbeat away from the Presidency matters more when the heart in question will be 72 at the time of the inauguration. Here are some of the suggestions:
1) Tim Pawlenty
The Governor of Minnesota is at the top of many pundit's lists. The Springsteen fan likes to emphasise his working class roots and has managed to win twice in a traditionally Democratic state. He's renowned for his personal and rhetorical skills and liked by left and right. The one to watch.
2) Joe Lieberman
Connecticut Senator Lieberman bridges the political divide. A former Democrat, he still supports most of their policies but is also in favour of the Iraq war. He's made presidential and vice-presidential runs before and is an old friend of John McCain. The two Senators were together on the recent UK trip of McCain's and were frequently see yukking it up. But age is a big, big issue. Lieberman is 66. Together the ticket will add up to 138 years of experience.
3) Mitt Romney
McCain and Romney fell out several times during the Republican nomination race. But they've been cozying up of late and Romney has been spotted fundraising with McCain in the west. The worse the economy gets, the higher his chances. His impeccable financial credentials are his strongest card. He would make McCain seem more conservative (probably - Romney is, ahem, flexible). This would help with the base but would it put off independents?
4) Condoleezza Rice
The dream ticket for some. The nightmare for others. The Secretary of State's race and gender would boost the Republican argument that they're not just a party for white men. Condi speaks five languages and would provide some much-needed foreign policy clout. The odds of selecting her might have been higher if Clinton had wrapped up the Democratic nomination. But no-one would sneeze at this option. So what's not to like (if you are a Republican)? In a word - Bush. McCain's presidential bid won't fly if he is tethered to the President. And wouldn't Condi do just that?
5) Charlie Crist
Also a popular option. The popular Governor of Florida might bring the swing-state with him, and he's not even a Bush. The Times has written before about the likelihood of him making VP. He appeals to both independents and more conservative Republicans. A possible snag? He's single and has been forced to repeatedly defend his sexuality. Or is that a snag?
6) Bobby Jindal
The Governor of Louisiana, his name's cropped up several times recently. He's made waves with ethics reform in his homestate. The child of Indian immigrants, he'd add some diversity to the ticket and, at just 36, years old, he's half McCain's age. He also has a strong background in healthcare.
7) Sarah Palin
A former Miss Congeniality, the young Alaska senator has made quite a splash. The first female governor of her state, she might help bring women into the fold. And her strong support of family values and pro-life views will appeal to Republican voters who might be alienated by McCain's more maverick opinions.
8) Colin Powell
The former Secretary of State is a much-loved and well-respected moderate. But his denouncement of the Iraq mission may make him less appealing to McCain. Another catch? He's advised Barack Obama on foreign policy and praised him heavily in the past. An endorsement isn't out of the question.
9) Haley Barbour
The Governor of Mississippi would help secure the South. He's been head of the RNC and no-one could quibble with his conservatism. Knows everyone in politics but there is one large cloud hanging over his head. A series of Katrina-related ethics violations were alleged last summer. McCain might decide to steer clear.
10) Mike Huckabee:
If he really wants to propitiate the base, McCain should go with Huckabee. The former Arkansas Governor scored surprisingly well during the nomination campaign, taking Ohio, Kansas, Louisiana and West Virginia. And McCain would get two for one. Huckabee's bound to bring celebrity endorser Chuck Norris along for the ride. On the other hand, the guy doesn't even believe in the theory of evolution.
May 16, 2008
Top ten McCain Vice Presidential picks
Daniel Finkelstein
McCain needs to pick his partner very carefully. A heartbeat away from the Presidency matters more when the heart in question will be 72 at the time of the inauguration. Here are some of the suggestions:
1) Tim Pawlenty
The Governor of Minnesota is at the top of many pundit's lists. The Springsteen fan likes to emphasise his working class roots and has managed to win twice in a traditionally Democratic state. He's renowned for his personal and rhetorical skills and liked by left and right. The one to watch.
2) Joe Lieberman
Connecticut Senator Lieberman bridges the political divide. A former Democrat, he still supports most of their policies but is also in favour of the Iraq war. He's made presidential and vice-presidential runs before and is an old friend of John McCain. The two Senators were together on the recent UK trip of McCain's and were frequently see yukking it up. But age is a big, big issue. Lieberman is 66. Together the ticket will add up to 138 years of experience.
3) Mitt Romney
McCain and Romney fell out several times during the Republican nomination race. But they've been cozying up of late and Romney has been spotted fundraising with McCain in the west. The worse the economy gets, the higher his chances. His impeccable financial credentials are his strongest card. He would make McCain seem more conservative (probably - Romney is, ahem, flexible). This would help with the base but would it put off independents?
4) Condoleezza Rice
The dream ticket for some. The nightmare for others. The Secretary of State's race and gender would boost the Republican argument that they're not just a party for white men. Condi speaks five languages and would provide some much-needed foreign policy clout. The odds of selecting her might have been higher if Clinton had wrapped up the Democratic nomination. But no-one would sneeze at this option. So what's not to like (if you are a Republican)? In a word - Bush. McCain's presidential bid won't fly if he is tethered to the President. And wouldn't Condi do just that?
5) Charlie Crist
Also a popular option. The popular Governor of Florida might bring the swing-state with him, and he's not even a Bush. The Times has written before about the likelihood of him making VP. He appeals to both independents and more conservative Republicans. A possible snag? He's single and has been forced to repeatedly defend his sexuality. Or is that a snag?
6) Bobby Jindal
The Governor of Louisiana, his name's cropped up several times recently. He's made waves with ethics reform in his homestate. The child of Indian immigrants, he'd add some diversity to the ticket and, at just 36, years old, he's half McCain's age. He also has a strong background in healthcare.
7) Sarah Palin
A former Miss Congeniality, the young Alaska senator has made quite a splash. The first female governor of her state, she might help bring women into the fold. And her strong support of family values and pro-life views will appeal to Republican voters who might be alienated by McCain's more maverick opinions.
8) Colin Powell
The former Secretary of State is a much-loved and well-respected moderate. But his denouncement of the Iraq mission may make him less appealing to McCain. Another catch? He's advised Barack Obama on foreign policy and praised him heavily in the past. An endorsement isn't out of the question.
9) Haley Barbour
The Governor of Mississippi would help secure the South. He's been head of the RNC and no-one could quibble with his conservatism. Knows everyone in politics but there is one large cloud hanging over his head. A series of Katrina-related ethics violations were alleged last summer. McCain might decide to steer clear.
10) Mike Huckabee:
If he really wants to propitiate the base, McCain should go with Huckabee. The former Arkansas Governor scored surprisingly well during the nomination campaign, taking Ohio, Kansas, Louisiana and West Virginia. And McCain would get two for one. Huckabee's bound to bring celebrity endorser Chuck Norris along for the ride. On the other hand, the guy doesn't even believe in the theory of evolution.
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