12-15-11
Full Article:
http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/12/15/9461848-dismal-prospects-1-in-2-americans-are-now-poor-or-low-income
Squeezed by rising living costs, a record number of Americans — nearly 1 in 2 — have fallen into poverty or are scraping by on earnings that classify them as low income.
The latest census data depict a middle class that's shrinking as unemployment stays high and the government's safety net frays. The new numbers follow years of stagnating wages for the middle class that have hurt millions of workers and families.
"Safety net programs such as food stamps and tax credits kept poverty from rising even higher in 2010, but for many low-income families with work-related and medical expenses, they are considered too 'rich' to qualify," said Sheldon Danziger, a University of Michigan public policy professor who specializes in poverty.
"The reality is that prospects for the poor and the near poor are dismal," he said. "If Congress and the states make further cuts, we can expect the number of poor and low-income families to rise for the next several years."
Showing posts with label Unemployment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Unemployment. Show all posts
Friday, December 23, 2011
Saturday, March 12, 2011
Gallup: Unemployment in Double Digits
From Gallup.com:
Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, hit 10.3% in February -- up from 9.8% at the end of January. The U.S. unemployment rate is now essentially the same as the 10.4% at the end of February 2010.
The percentage of part-time workers who want full-time work worsened considerably in February, increasing to 9.6% of the workforce from 9.1% at the end of January. A larger percentage of the U.S. workforce is working part time and wanting full-time work now than was the case a year ago (9.3%).
Underemployment Surges in February
Underemployment, a measure that combines part-time workers wanting full-time work with those who are unemployed, surged in February to 19.9%. This resulted from the combination of a sharp 0.5-point increase since the end of January in the percentage unemployed and a 0.5-point increase in the percentage working part time but wanting full-time work. Underemployment is now higher than it was at this point a year ago (19.7%)..
Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment Hitting 10.3% in February
Dennis Jacobe
March 3, 2011
http://www.gallup.com/poll/146453/Gallup-Finds-Unemployment-Hitting-February.aspx
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment Up to 10.0% in Mid-February
Underemployment surged to 19.6% in mid-February from 18.9% at the end of January
Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist
February 17, 2011
http://www.gallup.com/poll/146147/Gallup-Finds-Unemployment-Mid-February.aspx
Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, hit 10.0% in mid-February -- up from 9.8% at the end of January.
The percentage of part-time workers who want full-time work worsened considerably in mid-February, increasing to 9.6% of the workforce from 9.1% in January.
Underemployment Surges in Mid-February
Underemployment, in which Gallup combines part-time workers wanting full-time work with the U.S. unemployment rate, surged in mid-February to 19.6% -- mostly as a result of the sharp increase in those working part time but wanting full-time work. Underemployment now stands at basically the same place as it did a year ago (19.8%).
The Jobs Situation Now Versus a Year Ago
The unemployment rate in mid-February is 0.8 percentage points lower than it was at this time a year ago, compared with a 1.1-point improvement at the end of January. This suggests that jobs are less available now than they were in January.
More troubling, however, is the surge in underemployment. On this broader basis, current job conditions are barely improved from what they were at this time last year. Essentially, what has happened over the past year is that some people who were unemployed got part-time jobs but are still looking for full-time work. This is not much to show for a year in which many macro-economic indicators showed improvement.
This is likely why Gallup's self-reported spending remains stuck in "new normal" even as consumer optimism continues to hit new highs. Jobs remain the key to getting the U.S. economy moving, and mid-February underemployment results suggest little or no progress is being made in that regard.
Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist
February 17, 2011
http://www.gallup.com/poll/146147/Gallup-Finds-Unemployment-Mid-February.aspx
Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, hit 10.0% in mid-February -- up from 9.8% at the end of January.
The percentage of part-time workers who want full-time work worsened considerably in mid-February, increasing to 9.6% of the workforce from 9.1% in January.
Underemployment Surges in Mid-February
Underemployment, in which Gallup combines part-time workers wanting full-time work with the U.S. unemployment rate, surged in mid-February to 19.6% -- mostly as a result of the sharp increase in those working part time but wanting full-time work. Underemployment now stands at basically the same place as it did a year ago (19.8%).
The Jobs Situation Now Versus a Year Ago
The unemployment rate in mid-February is 0.8 percentage points lower than it was at this time a year ago, compared with a 1.1-point improvement at the end of January. This suggests that jobs are less available now than they were in January.
More troubling, however, is the surge in underemployment. On this broader basis, current job conditions are barely improved from what they were at this time last year. Essentially, what has happened over the past year is that some people who were unemployed got part-time jobs but are still looking for full-time work. This is not much to show for a year in which many macro-economic indicators showed improvement.
This is likely why Gallup's self-reported spending remains stuck in "new normal" even as consumer optimism continues to hit new highs. Jobs remain the key to getting the U.S. economy moving, and mid-February underemployment results suggest little or no progress is being made in that regard.
Saturday, February 19, 2011
Unemployment Drops, but Where's the Jobs?
The good news: for the second straight month, unemployment dropped by 0.4 percent, to 9.0 percent in January. The bad news: only 36,000 jobs were created during the month.
One explanation for this bipolar employment message is a statistical glitch. Job creation and unemployment come from two different reports, and unemployment figures tend to be the more consistently accurate report.
Another explanation, more cynical in outlook, is that unemployment is merely dropping because workers have given up looking due to the bad job outlook. This view is echoed by the poster with the clever pen-name of Tyler Durden for ZeroHedge.com: "Probably the last chart to bury any doubt about just how truly horrible today's employment data was, comes from a little observed data metric: that showing the number of people who are not in the labor force, but who want a job now. The number just hit 6,643K, a jump of 431K from December, and the highest number in history. These are people that would send the unemployment rate to about 12.8% if they were in the labor force (and, as indicated, looking for a job). Nothing else needs to be said."
Of course, even if the unemployment reports show a phantom drop, psychologically, it doesn't hurt. It's definitely a plus for Team Obama, as they no longer have to hear about unemployment stuck around double digits anymore...
Persons Not In Labor Force Who Want Job Now Jumps To All Time Record; Real Unemployment Rate At 12.8%
Tyler Durden
02/04/2011
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/persons-not-labor-force-who-want-job-now-jumps-all-time-record
One explanation for this bipolar employment message is a statistical glitch. Job creation and unemployment come from two different reports, and unemployment figures tend to be the more consistently accurate report.
Another explanation, more cynical in outlook, is that unemployment is merely dropping because workers have given up looking due to the bad job outlook. This view is echoed by the poster with the clever pen-name of Tyler Durden for ZeroHedge.com: "Probably the last chart to bury any doubt about just how truly horrible today's employment data was, comes from a little observed data metric: that showing the number of people who are not in the labor force, but who want a job now. The number just hit 6,643K, a jump of 431K from December, and the highest number in history. These are people that would send the unemployment rate to about 12.8% if they were in the labor force (and, as indicated, looking for a job). Nothing else needs to be said."
Of course, even if the unemployment reports show a phantom drop, psychologically, it doesn't hurt. It's definitely a plus for Team Obama, as they no longer have to hear about unemployment stuck around double digits anymore...
Persons Not In Labor Force Who Want Job Now Jumps To All Time Record; Real Unemployment Rate At 12.8%
Tyler Durden
02/04/2011
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/persons-not-labor-force-who-want-job-now-jumps-all-time-record
Monday, December 6, 2010
Millions To Lose Unemployment Benefits
http://www.npr.org/2010/11/30/131713002/millions-to-lose-unemployment-benefits
Millions To Lose Unemployment Benefits
David Welna
December 1, 2010
Things just got worse for the millions of Americans who have been unemployed for up to 99 weeks. At the stroke of midnight Tuesday, a short-term extension of jobless benefits for the long-term unemployed expired as Democrats and Republicans in Congress failed to agree on how those benefits should be further extended.
Congress decided last July to extend long-term unemployment insurance only until the end of November. November has now given way to December, and West Virginia Democratic Sen. John D. Rockefeller lamented that those benefits have run out, just in time for the holiday season.
"I feel terrible about it, particularly in West Virginia where everybody's fighting to survive all the time. And we have to do it," he said. "Why we haven't done it, I don't know."
Not Enough Votes
The House has already tried once — and failed — in the current lame-duck session to extend the jobless benefits. In the Senate, No. 2 Democrat Dick Durbin appeared stricken Tuesday when asked what that chamber planned to do about the 2 million people losing their jobless benefits.
"There's just no current ... plan or schedule for extending these benefits, and I think this is just wrong," he said.
The expiring benefits were not even mentioned by Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell when he spoke of the meeting that he and other congressional leaders had Tuesday with President Obama at the White House.
"I think the one thing we clearly agreed on is that first, that we ought to resolve what the tax rates are going to be for the American people beginning next year," he said.
Democrats say Republicans' insistence on extending expiring tax cuts for even the highest income levels shows that they are tone-deaf to the plight of the unemployed.
"I don't know how we can sit down and talk about tax cuts for people who have jobs at the highest income categories and ignore the suffering and struggles of people who are unemployed through no fault of their own," Durbin said.
When asked why Democrats didn't bring it up on the Senate floor, Durbin said they didn't have the votes.
"It needs to be part of a package to attract Republican votes, and we found the last time around, I think, we had two Republican votes — that wouldn't be enough," he said.
GOP Position
The lift just got heavier for Senate Democrats with the swearing in this week of Illinois Republican Mark Kirk. Asked whether he would support extending the jobless benefits, Kirk took a stance most Republicans take: "If it's paid for by cutting other items in the budget, I will be a yes vote. If it's added to further debts of the United States, no."
Late Tuesday, Rhode Island Democratic Sen. Jack Reed defended his party's proposal to extend unemployment benefits for a year without cutting other items in the budget.
"We've always done it on an emergency basis, because it truly is an emergency," Reed said. "We haven't sought to offset it, because we've always determined that it was necessary to get the money to the people who could use it, who needed it desperately, and we should do that again."
Reed then proposed that the Senate take up the extension. Massachusetts Republican Sen. Scott Brown objected, even as he expressed sympathy to onlookers in the Senate gallery for those losing their benefits.
"Make no mistake, I agree that they need help, but I look at it as: Are we going to do it from the bank account, or are we going to put it on the credit card?" he said.
Democrats in turn rejected Brown's proposal to cut other government funding to pay for more jobless benefits. Both sides say the solution may be to attach those benefits to a deal extending the Bush-era tax cuts.
Millions To Lose Unemployment Benefits
David Welna
December 1, 2010
Things just got worse for the millions of Americans who have been unemployed for up to 99 weeks. At the stroke of midnight Tuesday, a short-term extension of jobless benefits for the long-term unemployed expired as Democrats and Republicans in Congress failed to agree on how those benefits should be further extended.
Congress decided last July to extend long-term unemployment insurance only until the end of November. November has now given way to December, and West Virginia Democratic Sen. John D. Rockefeller lamented that those benefits have run out, just in time for the holiday season.
"I feel terrible about it, particularly in West Virginia where everybody's fighting to survive all the time. And we have to do it," he said. "Why we haven't done it, I don't know."
Not Enough Votes
The House has already tried once — and failed — in the current lame-duck session to extend the jobless benefits. In the Senate, No. 2 Democrat Dick Durbin appeared stricken Tuesday when asked what that chamber planned to do about the 2 million people losing their jobless benefits.
"There's just no current ... plan or schedule for extending these benefits, and I think this is just wrong," he said.
The expiring benefits were not even mentioned by Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell when he spoke of the meeting that he and other congressional leaders had Tuesday with President Obama at the White House.
"I think the one thing we clearly agreed on is that first, that we ought to resolve what the tax rates are going to be for the American people beginning next year," he said.
Democrats say Republicans' insistence on extending expiring tax cuts for even the highest income levels shows that they are tone-deaf to the plight of the unemployed.
"I don't know how we can sit down and talk about tax cuts for people who have jobs at the highest income categories and ignore the suffering and struggles of people who are unemployed through no fault of their own," Durbin said.
When asked why Democrats didn't bring it up on the Senate floor, Durbin said they didn't have the votes.
"It needs to be part of a package to attract Republican votes, and we found the last time around, I think, we had two Republican votes — that wouldn't be enough," he said.
GOP Position
The lift just got heavier for Senate Democrats with the swearing in this week of Illinois Republican Mark Kirk. Asked whether he would support extending the jobless benefits, Kirk took a stance most Republicans take: "If it's paid for by cutting other items in the budget, I will be a yes vote. If it's added to further debts of the United States, no."
Late Tuesday, Rhode Island Democratic Sen. Jack Reed defended his party's proposal to extend unemployment benefits for a year without cutting other items in the budget.
"We've always done it on an emergency basis, because it truly is an emergency," Reed said. "We haven't sought to offset it, because we've always determined that it was necessary to get the money to the people who could use it, who needed it desperately, and we should do that again."
Reed then proposed that the Senate take up the extension. Massachusetts Republican Sen. Scott Brown objected, even as he expressed sympathy to onlookers in the Senate gallery for those losing their benefits.
"Make no mistake, I agree that they need help, but I look at it as: Are we going to do it from the bank account, or are we going to put it on the credit card?" he said.
Democrats in turn rejected Brown's proposal to cut other government funding to pay for more jobless benefits. Both sides say the solution may be to attach those benefits to a deal extending the Bush-era tax cuts.
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
Barack Obama warns of unemployment being 'new normal' in US
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/barackobama/8118276/Barack-Obama-warns-of-unemployment-being-new-normal-in-US.html
Barack Obama warns of unemployment being 'new normal' in US
Barack Obama has warned of his concern about very high unemployment being "a new normal" in the United States.
Toby Harnden in Washington
08 Nov 2010
In an interview with "60 Minutes" on CBS News, his first since the Democratic drubbing in last Tuesday's mid-terms elections, Mr Obama said that he sometimes gets "discouraged" about the poor economy but realised that it was not entirely his fault.
"There are times when I thought that the economy would have gotten better by now," he said. "You know, one of the things I think you understand as president is you're held responsible for everything, but you don't always have control of everything, right?"
He insisted he was not worried about another depression or recession but the unemployment rate, stuck at just below 10 per cent, was a major concern.
"What is a danger is that we stay stuck in a new normal where unemployment rates stay high, people who have jobs see their incomes go up, businesses make big profits, but they've learned to do more with less, and so they don't hire," he said.
"And as a consequence, we keep on seeing growth that is just too slow to bring back the eight million jobs that were lost. That is a danger. So that's something that I spend a lot of time thinking about."
Mr Obama resisted expressing regrets about any policy decisions he had made but spoke with the same tone of contrition he exhibited in his White House press conference last Wednesday. He suggested his focus on good policy had carried a political price.
"We were so busy and so focused on getting a bunch of stuff done that we stopped paying attention to the fact that, yeah, leadership isn't just legislation, that it's a matter of persuading people and giving them confidence and bringing them together, and setting a tone.
"We haven't always been successful at that, and I take personal responsibility for that. And it's something that I have to examine carefully as I go forward."
Mr Obama also said that he did not believe the elections had been a referendum on his presidency. "I think first and foremost, it was a referendum on the economy. And the party in power was held responsible for an economy that is still underperforming and where a lot of folks are still hurting."
Barack Obama warns of unemployment being 'new normal' in US
Barack Obama has warned of his concern about very high unemployment being "a new normal" in the United States.
Toby Harnden in Washington
08 Nov 2010
In an interview with "60 Minutes" on CBS News, his first since the Democratic drubbing in last Tuesday's mid-terms elections, Mr Obama said that he sometimes gets "discouraged" about the poor economy but realised that it was not entirely his fault.
"There are times when I thought that the economy would have gotten better by now," he said. "You know, one of the things I think you understand as president is you're held responsible for everything, but you don't always have control of everything, right?"
He insisted he was not worried about another depression or recession but the unemployment rate, stuck at just below 10 per cent, was a major concern.
"What is a danger is that we stay stuck in a new normal where unemployment rates stay high, people who have jobs see their incomes go up, businesses make big profits, but they've learned to do more with less, and so they don't hire," he said.
"And as a consequence, we keep on seeing growth that is just too slow to bring back the eight million jobs that were lost. That is a danger. So that's something that I spend a lot of time thinking about."
Mr Obama resisted expressing regrets about any policy decisions he had made but spoke with the same tone of contrition he exhibited in his White House press conference last Wednesday. He suggested his focus on good policy had carried a political price.
"We were so busy and so focused on getting a bunch of stuff done that we stopped paying attention to the fact that, yeah, leadership isn't just legislation, that it's a matter of persuading people and giving them confidence and bringing them together, and setting a tone.
"We haven't always been successful at that, and I take personal responsibility for that. And it's something that I have to examine carefully as I go forward."
Mr Obama also said that he did not believe the elections had been a referendum on his presidency. "I think first and foremost, it was a referendum on the economy. And the party in power was held responsible for an economy that is still underperforming and where a lot of folks are still hurting."
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Why Is Indiana Putting Armed Security Guards Into Unemployment Offices?
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/why-is-indiana-putting-armed-security-guards-into-36-unemployment-offices-across-the-state
Why Is Indiana Putting Armed Security Guards Into 36 Unemployment Offices Across The State?
Did you ever think that things in America would get so bad that we would need to put armed guards into our unemployment offices? Well, that is exactly what is happening in Indiana. Armed security guards will now be posted at all 36 full-service unemployment offices in the state of Indiana. So why is this happening now? Well, Indiana Department of Workforce Development spokesman Marc Lotter says that the agency is bringing in the extra security in anticipation of an upcoming deadline when thousands upon thousands of Indiana residents could have their unemployment benefits cut off. But it is not just the state of Indiana that could have a problem. In fact, one recent study found that approximately 2 million Americans will lose their unemployment insurance benefits during this upcoming holiday season unless Congress authorizes another emergency extension of benefits by the end of November. At this point, however, that is looking less and less likely.
So perhaps all the states will have to start putting armed security guards in their unemployment offices. The truth is that frustration among unemployed Americans is growing by the day.
Could we soon see economic riots similar to what we have seen in Greece and France?
Let's hope not.
So could things really get out of hand when thousands of unemployed workers in Indiana find out that they aren't going to get checks any longer?
Indiana Department of Workforce Development spokesman Marc Lotter makes it sound like that is very much on his mind....
"Given the upcoming expiration of the federal extensions and the increased stress on some of the unemployed, we thought added security would provide an extra level of protection for our employees and clients."
So who is paying for all of this extra security?
The Feds of course.
The additional cost of the new security will be approximately $1 million, and it will be paid for with U.S. government funds designated for the administration of the unemployment system according to Lotter.
This is not a good trend. As you go through your daily life, just start taking note of the places that now have armed security that did not have armed security five or ten years ago.
Unfortunately, as the U.S. economy goes downhill even further, the amount of security that people feel is "necessary" is likely to go up even more.
So is America going to become an armed camp where the people and institutions with money are protected by armed guards from the hordes of frustrated unemployed workers that can't feed themselves or their families?
Americans are certainly not in a good mood about the economy. According to a recent poll conducted by CNBC, 92 percent of Americans believe that the performance of the U.S. economy is either "fair" or "poor".
The lack of jobs is the main thing that the American people are so mad about. In fact, it is hard for even highly educated people to find work in 2010. In America today, 317,000 waiters and waitresses have college degrees.
People are really hurting and they are getting to the end of their ropes. Over 41 million Americans are now on food stamps, and one out of every six Americans is enrolled in at least one federal anti-poverty program. It is getting hard to believe that this is even America anymore. For many more statistics that reveal the economic horror we are now facing as a nation, please see my previous article entitled "30 Reasons Why People Should Be Getting Really Nervous About The State Of The U.S. Economy".
But it is not just unemployment that is the problem. In recent years, millions upon millions of Americans have been forced to take reduced hours or a cut in pay due to the economy. Millions of others have had to take jobs that barely enable them to survive. In fact, the number of Americans working part-time jobs "for economic reasons" is now the highest it has been in at least five decades.
So why aren't there even close to enough jobs for everyone? Well, there are a number of contributing factors, including the fact that we have been "offshoring" and "outsourcing" millions of our jobs and now it is really starting to catch up with us. I have discussed this so many times now that I am starting to sound like a broken record.
But instead of fixing the fundamental problems with our economy, the Federal Reserve wants to print yet another gigantic pile of paper money and throw it at the problem. It is called "quantitative easing", and it may help smooth things over for a few months, but it is also going to make our long-term problems even worse.
Unfortunately, the Federal Reserve does not really seem concerned about protecting the value of the U.S. dollar at this point. Not that they ever did, but it would be nice to see Fed officials paying at least some lip service to the dangers of inflation.
Instead, various Fed officials have been publicly making statements about the need for more quantitative easing for weeks. Right now they seem desperate to put the American people back to work - even if it ends up crashing the value of the dollar.
But now even the IMF seems supportive of a dollar devaluation. On Thursday, the IMF actually said that the U.S. dollar is "overvalued" and that adjustments need to be made.
We'll see what the Fed decides to do next week. Most analysts believe that they will announce a quantitative easing program of some sort or another.
But what have we come to as a nation when those who control our economy believe that the best solution to our economic problems is to print another big pile of paper money and chuck it into the system?
We've got an absolutely gigantic economic mess on our hands, and none of our "leaders" seem to have any idea about how to fix it.
Meanwhile, millions of unemployed Americans are just going to become more and more frustrated - especially when it gets to the point when they aren't receiving unemployment checks anymore.
Why Is Indiana Putting Armed Security Guards Into 36 Unemployment Offices Across The State?
Did you ever think that things in America would get so bad that we would need to put armed guards into our unemployment offices? Well, that is exactly what is happening in Indiana. Armed security guards will now be posted at all 36 full-service unemployment offices in the state of Indiana. So why is this happening now? Well, Indiana Department of Workforce Development spokesman Marc Lotter says that the agency is bringing in the extra security in anticipation of an upcoming deadline when thousands upon thousands of Indiana residents could have their unemployment benefits cut off. But it is not just the state of Indiana that could have a problem. In fact, one recent study found that approximately 2 million Americans will lose their unemployment insurance benefits during this upcoming holiday season unless Congress authorizes another emergency extension of benefits by the end of November. At this point, however, that is looking less and less likely.
So perhaps all the states will have to start putting armed security guards in their unemployment offices. The truth is that frustration among unemployed Americans is growing by the day.
Could we soon see economic riots similar to what we have seen in Greece and France?
Let's hope not.
So could things really get out of hand when thousands of unemployed workers in Indiana find out that they aren't going to get checks any longer?
Indiana Department of Workforce Development spokesman Marc Lotter makes it sound like that is very much on his mind....
"Given the upcoming expiration of the federal extensions and the increased stress on some of the unemployed, we thought added security would provide an extra level of protection for our employees and clients."
So who is paying for all of this extra security?
The Feds of course.
The additional cost of the new security will be approximately $1 million, and it will be paid for with U.S. government funds designated for the administration of the unemployment system according to Lotter.
This is not a good trend. As you go through your daily life, just start taking note of the places that now have armed security that did not have armed security five or ten years ago.
Unfortunately, as the U.S. economy goes downhill even further, the amount of security that people feel is "necessary" is likely to go up even more.
So is America going to become an armed camp where the people and institutions with money are protected by armed guards from the hordes of frustrated unemployed workers that can't feed themselves or their families?
Americans are certainly not in a good mood about the economy. According to a recent poll conducted by CNBC, 92 percent of Americans believe that the performance of the U.S. economy is either "fair" or "poor".
The lack of jobs is the main thing that the American people are so mad about. In fact, it is hard for even highly educated people to find work in 2010. In America today, 317,000 waiters and waitresses have college degrees.
People are really hurting and they are getting to the end of their ropes. Over 41 million Americans are now on food stamps, and one out of every six Americans is enrolled in at least one federal anti-poverty program. It is getting hard to believe that this is even America anymore. For many more statistics that reveal the economic horror we are now facing as a nation, please see my previous article entitled "30 Reasons Why People Should Be Getting Really Nervous About The State Of The U.S. Economy".
But it is not just unemployment that is the problem. In recent years, millions upon millions of Americans have been forced to take reduced hours or a cut in pay due to the economy. Millions of others have had to take jobs that barely enable them to survive. In fact, the number of Americans working part-time jobs "for economic reasons" is now the highest it has been in at least five decades.
So why aren't there even close to enough jobs for everyone? Well, there are a number of contributing factors, including the fact that we have been "offshoring" and "outsourcing" millions of our jobs and now it is really starting to catch up with us. I have discussed this so many times now that I am starting to sound like a broken record.
But instead of fixing the fundamental problems with our economy, the Federal Reserve wants to print yet another gigantic pile of paper money and throw it at the problem. It is called "quantitative easing", and it may help smooth things over for a few months, but it is also going to make our long-term problems even worse.
Unfortunately, the Federal Reserve does not really seem concerned about protecting the value of the U.S. dollar at this point. Not that they ever did, but it would be nice to see Fed officials paying at least some lip service to the dangers of inflation.
Instead, various Fed officials have been publicly making statements about the need for more quantitative easing for weeks. Right now they seem desperate to put the American people back to work - even if it ends up crashing the value of the dollar.
But now even the IMF seems supportive of a dollar devaluation. On Thursday, the IMF actually said that the U.S. dollar is "overvalued" and that adjustments need to be made.
We'll see what the Fed decides to do next week. Most analysts believe that they will announce a quantitative easing program of some sort or another.
But what have we come to as a nation when those who control our economy believe that the best solution to our economic problems is to print another big pile of paper money and chuck it into the system?
We've got an absolutely gigantic economic mess on our hands, and none of our "leaders" seem to have any idea about how to fix it.
Meanwhile, millions of unemployed Americans are just going to become more and more frustrated - especially when it gets to the point when they aren't receiving unemployment checks anymore.
Friday, October 15, 2010
Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment at 10.1% in September
http://www.gallup.com/poll/143426/Gallup-Finds-Unemployment-September.aspx
October 7, 2010
Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment at 10.1% in September
Underemployment, at 18.8%, is up from 18.6% at the end of August
Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist
PRINCETON, NJ -- Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, increased to 10.1% in September -- up sharply from 9.3% in August and 8.9% in July. Much of this increase came during the second half of the month -- the unemployment rate was 9.4% in mid-September -- and therefore is unlikely to be picked up in the government's unemployment report on Friday.
Certain groups continue to fare worse than the national average. For example, 15.8% of Americans aged 18 to 29 and 13.9% of those with no college education were unemployed in September.
The increase in the unemployment rate component of Gallup's underemployment measure is partially offset by fewer part-time workers, 8.7%, now wanting full-time work, down from 9.3% in August and 9.5% at the end of July.
As a result, underemployment shows a more modest increase to 18.8% in September from 18.6% in August, though it is up from 18.4% in July. Underemployment peaked at 20.4% in April and has yet to fall below 18.3% this year.
Friday's Unemployment Rate Report Likely to Understate
The government's final unemployment report before the midterm elections is based on job market conditions around mid-September. Gallup's modeling of the unemployment rate is consistent with Tuesday's ADP report of a decline of 39,000 private-sector jobs, and indicates that the government's national unemployment rate in September will be in the 9.6% to 9.8% range. This is based on Gallup's mid-September measurements and the continuing decline Gallup is seeing in the U.S. workforce during 2010.
However, Gallup's monitoring of job market conditions suggests that there was a sharp increase in the unemployment rate during the last couple of weeks of September. It could be that the anticipated slowdown of the overall economy has potential employers even more cautious about hiring. Some of the increase could also be seasonal or temporary.
Further, Gallup's underemployment measure suggests that the percentage of workers employed part time but looking for full-time work is declining as the unemployment rate increases. To some degree, this may reflect a reduced company demand for new part-time employees. For example, employers may be converting some existing part-time workers to full time when they are needed as replacements, but may not in turn be hiring replacement part-time workers. Another explanation may relate to the shrinkage of the workforce, as some employees who have taken part-time work in hopes of getting full-time jobs get discouraged and drop out of the workforce completely -- going back to school to enhance their education, for example, instead of doing part-time work. It is even possible that some workers may find unemployment insurance a better alternative than part-time work with little prospect of going full time.
Regardless, the sharp increase in the unemployment rate during late September does not bode well for the economy during the fourth quarter, or for holiday sales. In this regard, it is essential that the Federal Reserve and other policymakers not be misled by Friday's jobs numbers. The jobs picture could be deteriorating more rapidly than the government's job release suggests.
October 7, 2010
Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment at 10.1% in September
Underemployment, at 18.8%, is up from 18.6% at the end of August
Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist
PRINCETON, NJ -- Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, increased to 10.1% in September -- up sharply from 9.3% in August and 8.9% in July. Much of this increase came during the second half of the month -- the unemployment rate was 9.4% in mid-September -- and therefore is unlikely to be picked up in the government's unemployment report on Friday.
Certain groups continue to fare worse than the national average. For example, 15.8% of Americans aged 18 to 29 and 13.9% of those with no college education were unemployed in September.
The increase in the unemployment rate component of Gallup's underemployment measure is partially offset by fewer part-time workers, 8.7%, now wanting full-time work, down from 9.3% in August and 9.5% at the end of July.
As a result, underemployment shows a more modest increase to 18.8% in September from 18.6% in August, though it is up from 18.4% in July. Underemployment peaked at 20.4% in April and has yet to fall below 18.3% this year.
Friday's Unemployment Rate Report Likely to Understate
The government's final unemployment report before the midterm elections is based on job market conditions around mid-September. Gallup's modeling of the unemployment rate is consistent with Tuesday's ADP report of a decline of 39,000 private-sector jobs, and indicates that the government's national unemployment rate in September will be in the 9.6% to 9.8% range. This is based on Gallup's mid-September measurements and the continuing decline Gallup is seeing in the U.S. workforce during 2010.
However, Gallup's monitoring of job market conditions suggests that there was a sharp increase in the unemployment rate during the last couple of weeks of September. It could be that the anticipated slowdown of the overall economy has potential employers even more cautious about hiring. Some of the increase could also be seasonal or temporary.
Further, Gallup's underemployment measure suggests that the percentage of workers employed part time but looking for full-time work is declining as the unemployment rate increases. To some degree, this may reflect a reduced company demand for new part-time employees. For example, employers may be converting some existing part-time workers to full time when they are needed as replacements, but may not in turn be hiring replacement part-time workers. Another explanation may relate to the shrinkage of the workforce, as some employees who have taken part-time work in hopes of getting full-time jobs get discouraged and drop out of the workforce completely -- going back to school to enhance their education, for example, instead of doing part-time work. It is even possible that some workers may find unemployment insurance a better alternative than part-time work with little prospect of going full time.
Regardless, the sharp increase in the unemployment rate during late September does not bode well for the economy during the fourth quarter, or for holiday sales. In this regard, it is essential that the Federal Reserve and other policymakers not be misled by Friday's jobs numbers. The jobs picture could be deteriorating more rapidly than the government's job release suggests.
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Andy Stern's plan to create 12 million new jobs
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/09/forum_andy_sterns_plan_to_crea.html
Andy Stern's plan to create 12 million new jobs
It’s Time to Put America Back to Work
Andy Stern
Senior Research Fellow, Georgetown Public Policy Institute
Former President, Service Employees International Union
September 9, 2010
If we want to return the country to the kind of strong and stable economic growth that provides good jobs and decent wages -- not to mention is necessary to solve our long-term fiscal crisis -- we need to create 17 million new jobs. This would cut our unemployment rate by about half over the next two years.
But to create 17 million jobs, we need big, bold ideas. So, let’s come up with a plan. And let’s force our leaders and employers to act. My opening bid is 12 million jobs and I want you to call or raise me.
The reality is that job creation will cost some money. But in my plan, taxpayers either won’t have to pay a dime up front or all of their investment will be paid back and then some. In any case, the numbers should not scare anyone. If we can afford to pay nearly $800 billion to bailout out a few Wall Street banks, we can afford one-sixth of that amount to create nearly 12 million jobs.
My Jobs Bid:
Job Sharing Program.
Cost: $54 billion
Pay-for: Loans to Unemployment Insurance (UI) Funds to be repaid with a small UI surtax starting in 2013 on all employers.
Jobs created: 2.4 million
Infrastructure Bank.
Cost: $30 billion
Pay-for: One-time repatriation break for corporate earnings
Jobs created: 8.4 million
Youth Employment Programs.
Cost: $46.5 billion
Pay-for: Financial Speculation Tax
Jobs created: 3.1 million jobs
Total $130.5 billion 11.8 million jobs
Net Cost to Taxpayers = $0
The details:
1) Adopt Job Sharing
This is an idea, supported by Kevin Hassett from the American Enterprise Institute and Dean Baker from the Center for Economic and Policy Research, that could rally broad support from the left and the right.
Both experts testified earlier this year that Congress should consider a plan that enables companies to avoid shedding employees by reducing hours instead of firing workers. If hours and wages are reduced by 10 percent or more, workers would receive a federal subsidy for 60 percent of their lost salary. As the economy truly begins to recover, employers would be able to add new employees rather than increase hours for existing employees until the recovery is on a self-sustaining path.
Reducing the rate of job loss by just 10 percent would have the same effect on employment as if the economy generated an additional 200,000 jobs a month or 2.4 million a year. Germany’s unemployment rate dropped from 9.1 percent to 7.6 percent after implementing such a policy in January.
Congress should immediately take up one of several bills that take this idea to a national scale.
Jobs Created/Saved: 2.4 million
Cost: $54 billion
Pay-for: Loans to Unemployment Insurance (UI) Funds to be repaid with a small UI surtax starting in 2013 on all employers.
Ultimate cost to Taxpayers: Zero
2) Corporate Repatriation Dollars to Fund Infrastructure Jobs
U.S. multi-national corporations have parked an enormous amount of income overseas. And current tax rules and loopholes allow corporations to defer taxes on current income by storing it outside of the country. The end result is that these corporations have accumulated massive amounts of income overseas that have never been taxed.
There are many good arguments for corporate tax reform that make the United States more competitive on a global scale. Many argue that we need to lower rates and we need to close the loopholes. But, while we wait for this argument to conclude, workers sit home unemployed and the overseas money is not put to good use in the U.S. economy.
So, let’s revisit the idea of a one-time repatriation tax break. I’m talking about a tax on past foreign earnings with a twist. We put the government’s share of the money; say $30 billion, into an Infrastructure Bank. We could also put the money into a Green Bank or other long term job creation programs. That $30 billion would leverage $180 billion more in investment.
For every $1 billion in infrastructure spending, 40,000 direct and indirect jobs are created. Even without leverage, we could create 2.4 million jobs with this funding. With leverage, 8.4 million direct and indirect jobs could be created and we could create the 21st century infrastructure system we need in this country.
Jobs Created: 8.4 million
Cost: $30 billion
Pay-for: One-time corporate repatriation tax break
Cost to taxpayers: Zero
3) Full Employment for Our Children: AmeriCorps and the Kennedy National Service bill “On Steroids”
The Great Recession might have severely negative consequences for generations to come if we don’t do something about youth unemployment. Unemployment is corrosive to one’s self-respect, and for our kids, it is an especially depressing way to begin their work life as they try to pay off student loans and gain professional experience. Unemployment during the first years of one’s career also has the potential to greatly diminish lifetime earnings and opportunity.
Today, 79 percent of parents believe their children will be less off, that the American Dream won’t be available for the next generation.
Young workers make up a disproportionate share of the unemployed. While 16-to-24-year-olds comprise 13 percent of the labor force, they account for 26 percent of the unemployed. That’s nearly 4 million unemployed young people.
We can restore the confidence of our children and inspire them to serve their nation by building on non-partisan ideas such as the Kennedy National Service Bill.
This program has already created opportunities for 250,000 Americans to be involved in full and part-time service to address some of our nation’s greatest challenges.
Assuming an average annual cost of $15,000 per person, for just $46.5 billion we could offer every 16 to 24 year old who wanted a job a national service opportunity.
They will still need to look for a permanent job. But in the meanwhile, they’ll gain valuable work experience, serve our country and avoid the consequences of my mother’s favorite adage -- an idle mind is the devil's playground.
We should pay for the program using a small portion of a Financial Speculation Tax — a small tax on all financial transactions. If designed correctly, the tax can generate revenue while encouraging investors to make long-term investments in companies that will grow over the long haul. Only a small portion of this tax — which could raise $150 billion annually — would be needed to employ our future generations in meaningful jobs.
Jobs Created: 3.1 million
Cost: $46.5 billion
Pay-for: Financial Speculation Tax
Cost to Taxpayers: Zero
That’s my plan. Call me or raise me!
Andy Stern's plan to create 12 million new jobs
It’s Time to Put America Back to Work
Andy Stern
Senior Research Fellow, Georgetown Public Policy Institute
Former President, Service Employees International Union
September 9, 2010
If we want to return the country to the kind of strong and stable economic growth that provides good jobs and decent wages -- not to mention is necessary to solve our long-term fiscal crisis -- we need to create 17 million new jobs. This would cut our unemployment rate by about half over the next two years.
But to create 17 million jobs, we need big, bold ideas. So, let’s come up with a plan. And let’s force our leaders and employers to act. My opening bid is 12 million jobs and I want you to call or raise me.
The reality is that job creation will cost some money. But in my plan, taxpayers either won’t have to pay a dime up front or all of their investment will be paid back and then some. In any case, the numbers should not scare anyone. If we can afford to pay nearly $800 billion to bailout out a few Wall Street banks, we can afford one-sixth of that amount to create nearly 12 million jobs.
My Jobs Bid:
Job Sharing Program.
Cost: $54 billion
Pay-for: Loans to Unemployment Insurance (UI) Funds to be repaid with a small UI surtax starting in 2013 on all employers.
Jobs created: 2.4 million
Infrastructure Bank.
Cost: $30 billion
Pay-for: One-time repatriation break for corporate earnings
Jobs created: 8.4 million
Youth Employment Programs.
Cost: $46.5 billion
Pay-for: Financial Speculation Tax
Jobs created: 3.1 million jobs
Total $130.5 billion 11.8 million jobs
Net Cost to Taxpayers = $0
The details:
1) Adopt Job Sharing
This is an idea, supported by Kevin Hassett from the American Enterprise Institute and Dean Baker from the Center for Economic and Policy Research, that could rally broad support from the left and the right.
Both experts testified earlier this year that Congress should consider a plan that enables companies to avoid shedding employees by reducing hours instead of firing workers. If hours and wages are reduced by 10 percent or more, workers would receive a federal subsidy for 60 percent of their lost salary. As the economy truly begins to recover, employers would be able to add new employees rather than increase hours for existing employees until the recovery is on a self-sustaining path.
Reducing the rate of job loss by just 10 percent would have the same effect on employment as if the economy generated an additional 200,000 jobs a month or 2.4 million a year. Germany’s unemployment rate dropped from 9.1 percent to 7.6 percent after implementing such a policy in January.
Congress should immediately take up one of several bills that take this idea to a national scale.
Jobs Created/Saved: 2.4 million
Cost: $54 billion
Pay-for: Loans to Unemployment Insurance (UI) Funds to be repaid with a small UI surtax starting in 2013 on all employers.
Ultimate cost to Taxpayers: Zero
2) Corporate Repatriation Dollars to Fund Infrastructure Jobs
U.S. multi-national corporations have parked an enormous amount of income overseas. And current tax rules and loopholes allow corporations to defer taxes on current income by storing it outside of the country. The end result is that these corporations have accumulated massive amounts of income overseas that have never been taxed.
There are many good arguments for corporate tax reform that make the United States more competitive on a global scale. Many argue that we need to lower rates and we need to close the loopholes. But, while we wait for this argument to conclude, workers sit home unemployed and the overseas money is not put to good use in the U.S. economy.
So, let’s revisit the idea of a one-time repatriation tax break. I’m talking about a tax on past foreign earnings with a twist. We put the government’s share of the money; say $30 billion, into an Infrastructure Bank. We could also put the money into a Green Bank or other long term job creation programs. That $30 billion would leverage $180 billion more in investment.
For every $1 billion in infrastructure spending, 40,000 direct and indirect jobs are created. Even without leverage, we could create 2.4 million jobs with this funding. With leverage, 8.4 million direct and indirect jobs could be created and we could create the 21st century infrastructure system we need in this country.
Jobs Created: 8.4 million
Cost: $30 billion
Pay-for: One-time corporate repatriation tax break
Cost to taxpayers: Zero
3) Full Employment for Our Children: AmeriCorps and the Kennedy National Service bill “On Steroids”
The Great Recession might have severely negative consequences for generations to come if we don’t do something about youth unemployment. Unemployment is corrosive to one’s self-respect, and for our kids, it is an especially depressing way to begin their work life as they try to pay off student loans and gain professional experience. Unemployment during the first years of one’s career also has the potential to greatly diminish lifetime earnings and opportunity.
Today, 79 percent of parents believe their children will be less off, that the American Dream won’t be available for the next generation.
Young workers make up a disproportionate share of the unemployed. While 16-to-24-year-olds comprise 13 percent of the labor force, they account for 26 percent of the unemployed. That’s nearly 4 million unemployed young people.
We can restore the confidence of our children and inspire them to serve their nation by building on non-partisan ideas such as the Kennedy National Service Bill.
This program has already created opportunities for 250,000 Americans to be involved in full and part-time service to address some of our nation’s greatest challenges.
Assuming an average annual cost of $15,000 per person, for just $46.5 billion we could offer every 16 to 24 year old who wanted a job a national service opportunity.
They will still need to look for a permanent job. But in the meanwhile, they’ll gain valuable work experience, serve our country and avoid the consequences of my mother’s favorite adage -- an idle mind is the devil's playground.
We should pay for the program using a small portion of a Financial Speculation Tax — a small tax on all financial transactions. If designed correctly, the tax can generate revenue while encouraging investors to make long-term investments in companies that will grow over the long haul. Only a small portion of this tax — which could raise $150 billion annually — would be needed to employ our future generations in meaningful jobs.
Jobs Created: 3.1 million
Cost: $46.5 billion
Pay-for: Financial Speculation Tax
Cost to Taxpayers: Zero
That’s my plan. Call me or raise me!
Thursday, September 2, 2010
Der Spiegel: US middle class vanishing
Sat Aug 21, 2010
http://www.presstv.com/detail/139522.html
The American middle class is on the verge of disappearing, while the United States, itself, is in danger of becoming a third world country, a leading German newspaper says.
According to an article appearing in the German newspaper, Der Spiegel, the negative consequences of the global financial crisis include a widened social class rift and the elimination of the middle class in the US.
The article states that many Americans are beginning to realize that the American Dream has now become a nightmare as people are having to face the bitter reality of a shrinking job market along with decades of stagnating wages and dramatic increases in inequality.
More than a year after the official end of the recession, the overall unemployment rate remains consistently above 9.5 percent. But this is just the official figure. When adjusted to include the people who have already given up looking for work -- or are barely surviving on the few hundred dollars they earn with a part-time job and having to use their savings to supplement their income -- the real unemployment figure jumps to more than 17 percent.
In its current annual report, the US Department of Agriculture notes that "food insecurity" is on the rise, and that 50 million Americans were unable to buy enough food to remain healthy at some point last year. One out of every eight American adults and one out of four children now survive on government food stamps. These are unbelievable numbers for the world's richest nation
Last week, leading online columnist Arianna Huffington issued the almost apocalyptic warning that "America is in danger of becoming a Third World country."
In a recent cover story titled "So Long, Middle Class," the New York Post presented its readers with "25 statistics that prove that the middle class is being systematically wiped out of existence in America."
http://www.presstv.com/detail/139522.html
The American middle class is on the verge of disappearing, while the United States, itself, is in danger of becoming a third world country, a leading German newspaper says.
According to an article appearing in the German newspaper, Der Spiegel, the negative consequences of the global financial crisis include a widened social class rift and the elimination of the middle class in the US.
The article states that many Americans are beginning to realize that the American Dream has now become a nightmare as people are having to face the bitter reality of a shrinking job market along with decades of stagnating wages and dramatic increases in inequality.
More than a year after the official end of the recession, the overall unemployment rate remains consistently above 9.5 percent. But this is just the official figure. When adjusted to include the people who have already given up looking for work -- or are barely surviving on the few hundred dollars they earn with a part-time job and having to use their savings to supplement their income -- the real unemployment figure jumps to more than 17 percent.
In its current annual report, the US Department of Agriculture notes that "food insecurity" is on the rise, and that 50 million Americans were unable to buy enough food to remain healthy at some point last year. One out of every eight American adults and one out of four children now survive on government food stamps. These are unbelievable numbers for the world's richest nation
Last week, leading online columnist Arianna Huffington issued the almost apocalyptic warning that "America is in danger of becoming a Third World country."
In a recent cover story titled "So Long, Middle Class," the New York Post presented its readers with "25 statistics that prove that the middle class is being systematically wiped out of existence in America."
Friday, July 30, 2010
The Jobless Effect: Is the Real Unemployment Rate 16.5%, 22%, or. . .?
http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/careers/what-is-the-real-unemployment-rate/19556146/
The Jobless Effect: Is the Real Unemployment Rate 16.5%, 22%, or. . .?
PALLAVI GOGOI
07/16/10
Raghavan Mayur, president at TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, follows unemployment data closely. So, when his survey for May revealed that 28% of the 1,000-odd households surveyed reported that at least one member was looking for a full-time job, he was flummoxed.
"Our numbers are always very accurate, so I was surprised at the discrepancy with the government's numbers," says Mayur, whose firm owns the TIPP polling unit, a polling partner for Investors' Business Daily and Christian Science Monitor. After all, the headline number shows the U.S. unemployment rate today is 9.5%, with a total of 14.6 million jobless people.
However, Mayur's polls continued to find much worse figures. The June poll turned up 27.8% of households with at least one member who's unemployed and looking for a job, while the latest poll conducted in the second week of July showed 28.6% in that situation. That translates to an unemployment rate of over 22%, says Mayur, who has started questioning the accuracy of the Labor Department's jobless numbers.
Even Austan Goolsbee Has Been Skeptical
Mayur isn't alone in harboring such doubts, nor is he the first to wonder about inaccuracies. For years, many economists have pointed to evidence that the government data undercounts the unemployed. Economist Helen Ginsburg, co-founder of advocacy group National Jobs For All Coalition, and John Williams of the newsletter Shadow Government Statistics have been questioning these numbers for years.
In fact, Austan Goolsbee, who is now part of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, wrote in a 2003 New York Times piece titled "The Unemployment Myth," that the government had "cooked the books" by not correctly counting all the people it should, thereby keeping the unemployment rate artificially low. At the time, Goolsbee was a professor at the University of Chicago. When asked whether Goolsbee still believes the government undercounts unemployment, a White House spokeswoman said Goolsbee wasn't available to comment.
Such undercounting of unemployment can be an enormously dangerous exercise today. It could lead to some lawmakers underestimate the gravity of the labor market's problems and base their policymaking on a far-less-grim picture than actually exists. Economically, and socially, that would make a bad situation much worse for America.
"The implications of such undercounting is that policymakers aren't going to be thinking as big as they should be," says Ginsburg, also a professor emeritus of economics at Brooklyn College. "It also means that [consumer] demand is not going to be there, because the income from people who are employed isn't going to be there."
Indeed, it will add additional stress to an already strained economy. Businesses that might start ramping up after seeing the jobless number drop could set themselves up for disappointment when customers don't appear or orders don't flow in.
College Grads Serving Fries
Plus, having a job today is quite different from what it was just a few years ago: Many Americans have had their hours cut and are working for less pay. A Pew Research survey found more than half of all adults in the labor force had either lost a job or suffered a reduction in income because of the recession.
Ginsburg says the biggest source of undercounting comes from people who can't find a full-time job that they're qualified to do, for instance recent college graduates who take part-time jobs at fast-food joints or retail stores. Today, the Labor Department estimates that 8.6 million people are in this category.
The federal government counts such people as employed. However, polls show that these folks actually consider themselves "unemployed" and "looking for a job," and probably accounted for a large chunk of TechnoMetrica's respondents.
Jobless Workers Who Disappear
Another major source of undercounting is the unemployed who've given up looking for jobs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics headline number counts as unemployed only people who have actively looked for a job in the previous four weeks. About 2.6 million people had pursued jobs in the past 12 months but, discouraged by the lack of opportunity, had stopped looking altogether.
"Isn't it interesting that if you stopped looking for a job, you evaporate as a jobless person and are just not counted," says Gerald Celente, director of Trends Research Institute in Kingston, N.Y. Celente believes this kind of undercounting has suited the government politically. "It's what government does: Downplay disasters and amplify success."
According to the Pew Research Center, a large number of people are out of jobs for a longer period during this economic downturn. The typical unemployed worker today has been out of work for nearly six months. That's almost double the previous post-World War II peak for this measure, which was 12.3 weeks in 1982-83.
Indeed, if all of the truly unemployed were counted, the rate would be significantly higher. The BLS, in a data point titled "U-6," says it counted the total unemployment rate in June at 16.5%.
Misreading Americans' Anxiety
However, John Williams, founder of Shadow Government Statistics, says when accounting for the long-term unemployed, the jobless rate runs up to as much as 22% currently. Williams's newsletter, which analyzes flaws in government economic data, points out that such a rate isn't that far from the 25% it hit during the Great Depression.
Both Celente and Ginsburg believe lawmakers' not-dire-enough view of unemployment is one reason why they didn't extend federal unemployment benefits. Of course, party politics is another deterrent. Ginsburg says the Administration's decision to tackle the health care reform over unemployment reflects its lack of priority.
By taking his eye off one of the most fundamental issues affecting the country, President Obama has seen his popularity sink. The most recent Public Policy Polling survey says 45% of voters approve of the job he's doing, while 52% disapprove -- the first time Obama's disapproval ratings have exceeded 50% in this survey.
It's obvious that Americans view unemployment more urgently than either lawmakers or the president. And if pollsters like Mayur or economists like Ginsburg and Williams are right, it will take longer to fix this hole because it's already bigger than Washington thinks.
The Jobless Effect: Is the Real Unemployment Rate 16.5%, 22%, or. . .?
PALLAVI GOGOI
07/16/10
Raghavan Mayur, president at TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, follows unemployment data closely. So, when his survey for May revealed that 28% of the 1,000-odd households surveyed reported that at least one member was looking for a full-time job, he was flummoxed.
"Our numbers are always very accurate, so I was surprised at the discrepancy with the government's numbers," says Mayur, whose firm owns the TIPP polling unit, a polling partner for Investors' Business Daily and Christian Science Monitor. After all, the headline number shows the U.S. unemployment rate today is 9.5%, with a total of 14.6 million jobless people.
However, Mayur's polls continued to find much worse figures. The June poll turned up 27.8% of households with at least one member who's unemployed and looking for a job, while the latest poll conducted in the second week of July showed 28.6% in that situation. That translates to an unemployment rate of over 22%, says Mayur, who has started questioning the accuracy of the Labor Department's jobless numbers.
Even Austan Goolsbee Has Been Skeptical
Mayur isn't alone in harboring such doubts, nor is he the first to wonder about inaccuracies. For years, many economists have pointed to evidence that the government data undercounts the unemployed. Economist Helen Ginsburg, co-founder of advocacy group National Jobs For All Coalition, and John Williams of the newsletter Shadow Government Statistics have been questioning these numbers for years.
In fact, Austan Goolsbee, who is now part of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, wrote in a 2003 New York Times piece titled "The Unemployment Myth," that the government had "cooked the books" by not correctly counting all the people it should, thereby keeping the unemployment rate artificially low. At the time, Goolsbee was a professor at the University of Chicago. When asked whether Goolsbee still believes the government undercounts unemployment, a White House spokeswoman said Goolsbee wasn't available to comment.
Such undercounting of unemployment can be an enormously dangerous exercise today. It could lead to some lawmakers underestimate the gravity of the labor market's problems and base their policymaking on a far-less-grim picture than actually exists. Economically, and socially, that would make a bad situation much worse for America.
"The implications of such undercounting is that policymakers aren't going to be thinking as big as they should be," says Ginsburg, also a professor emeritus of economics at Brooklyn College. "It also means that [consumer] demand is not going to be there, because the income from people who are employed isn't going to be there."
Indeed, it will add additional stress to an already strained economy. Businesses that might start ramping up after seeing the jobless number drop could set themselves up for disappointment when customers don't appear or orders don't flow in.
College Grads Serving Fries
Plus, having a job today is quite different from what it was just a few years ago: Many Americans have had their hours cut and are working for less pay. A Pew Research survey found more than half of all adults in the labor force had either lost a job or suffered a reduction in income because of the recession.
Ginsburg says the biggest source of undercounting comes from people who can't find a full-time job that they're qualified to do, for instance recent college graduates who take part-time jobs at fast-food joints or retail stores. Today, the Labor Department estimates that 8.6 million people are in this category.
The federal government counts such people as employed. However, polls show that these folks actually consider themselves "unemployed" and "looking for a job," and probably accounted for a large chunk of TechnoMetrica's respondents.
Jobless Workers Who Disappear
Another major source of undercounting is the unemployed who've given up looking for jobs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics headline number counts as unemployed only people who have actively looked for a job in the previous four weeks. About 2.6 million people had pursued jobs in the past 12 months but, discouraged by the lack of opportunity, had stopped looking altogether.
"Isn't it interesting that if you stopped looking for a job, you evaporate as a jobless person and are just not counted," says Gerald Celente, director of Trends Research Institute in Kingston, N.Y. Celente believes this kind of undercounting has suited the government politically. "It's what government does: Downplay disasters and amplify success."
According to the Pew Research Center, a large number of people are out of jobs for a longer period during this economic downturn. The typical unemployed worker today has been out of work for nearly six months. That's almost double the previous post-World War II peak for this measure, which was 12.3 weeks in 1982-83.
Indeed, if all of the truly unemployed were counted, the rate would be significantly higher. The BLS, in a data point titled "U-6," says it counted the total unemployment rate in June at 16.5%.
Misreading Americans' Anxiety
However, John Williams, founder of Shadow Government Statistics, says when accounting for the long-term unemployed, the jobless rate runs up to as much as 22% currently. Williams's newsletter, which analyzes flaws in government economic data, points out that such a rate isn't that far from the 25% it hit during the Great Depression.
Both Celente and Ginsburg believe lawmakers' not-dire-enough view of unemployment is one reason why they didn't extend federal unemployment benefits. Of course, party politics is another deterrent. Ginsburg says the Administration's decision to tackle the health care reform over unemployment reflects its lack of priority.
By taking his eye off one of the most fundamental issues affecting the country, President Obama has seen his popularity sink. The most recent Public Policy Polling survey says 45% of voters approve of the job he's doing, while 52% disapprove -- the first time Obama's disapproval ratings have exceeded 50% in this survey.
It's obvious that Americans view unemployment more urgently than either lawmakers or the president. And if pollsters like Mayur or economists like Ginsburg and Williams are right, it will take longer to fix this hole because it's already bigger than Washington thinks.
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Unemployment rate dips as more workers leave labor force
http://articles.latimes.com/2010/jul/02/business/la-fi-jobs-report-20100703
Unemployment rate dips as more workers leave labor force
Employment-seekers decline by 652,000 June, which may reflect people giving up on job-hunting and a reluctance to hire. Overall, the jobless rate falls to 9.5% from 9.7%, the Labor Department reports.
July 02, 2010|By Don Lee, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
Washington — Private employers added a smaller-than-expected 83,000 jobs in June, but the unemployment rate edged down to 9.5% as many workers dropped out of a labor market that remains very sluggish.
The Labor Department reported Friday that total payroll employment, including government workers, was down 125,000 in June, reflecting the loss of 225,000 census workers who finished their assignments.
The decrease in Census Bureau staffing was expected, but most analysts were looking for stronger job growth in the private sector, which has yet to generate momentum and looms as a major threat to the overall economic recovery. In May, private employers added just 33,000 jobs. What's more, the average hours worked in manufacturing and other industries in June declined, as did average hourly earnings.
Job gains last month were largely in low-paying industries -- leisure and hospitality, and the temporary-help industry. Manufacturing payrolls grew by 9,000, but that was much smaller than the average of 25,400 in the prior five months. And the construction industry shed another 22,000 jobs in June.
Although the jobless rate in June fell from 9.7% in May, that reflected a big drop of 652,000 people in the labor force over the month. The labor force is made up of workers and those actively looking for jobs. With the economic recovery weakening and many employers reluctant to hire, many more unemployed people may have quit looking for work, which would push down the jobless rate.
In fact, the percentage of the overall working-age population that is in the labor force fell last month to 64.7% -- near a 25-year low.
don.lee@latimes.com
Unemployment rate dips as more workers leave labor force
Employment-seekers decline by 652,000 June, which may reflect people giving up on job-hunting and a reluctance to hire. Overall, the jobless rate falls to 9.5% from 9.7%, the Labor Department reports.
July 02, 2010|By Don Lee, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
Washington — Private employers added a smaller-than-expected 83,000 jobs in June, but the unemployment rate edged down to 9.5% as many workers dropped out of a labor market that remains very sluggish.
The Labor Department reported Friday that total payroll employment, including government workers, was down 125,000 in June, reflecting the loss of 225,000 census workers who finished their assignments.
The decrease in Census Bureau staffing was expected, but most analysts were looking for stronger job growth in the private sector, which has yet to generate momentum and looms as a major threat to the overall economic recovery. In May, private employers added just 33,000 jobs. What's more, the average hours worked in manufacturing and other industries in June declined, as did average hourly earnings.
Job gains last month were largely in low-paying industries -- leisure and hospitality, and the temporary-help industry. Manufacturing payrolls grew by 9,000, but that was much smaller than the average of 25,400 in the prior five months. And the construction industry shed another 22,000 jobs in June.
Although the jobless rate in June fell from 9.7% in May, that reflected a big drop of 652,000 people in the labor force over the month. The labor force is made up of workers and those actively looking for jobs. With the economic recovery weakening and many employers reluctant to hire, many more unemployed people may have quit looking for work, which would push down the jobless rate.
In fact, the percentage of the overall working-age population that is in the labor force fell last month to 64.7% -- near a 25-year low.
don.lee@latimes.com
Thursday, March 18, 2010
GOP Sen. Kyl: Unemployment Benefits Make People Not Want To Get A Job
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/03/01/gop-sen-kyl-unemployment_n_481526.html
Ryan Grim
ryan@huffingtonpost.com
GOP Sen. Kyl: Unemployment Benefits Make People Not Want To Get A Job
03- 1-10
A debate on the Senate floor Monday over unemployment compensation crystallized, at least for a moment, the divide between the two parties in Washington.
Sen. Jon Kyl of Arizona, the Republican whip, argued that unemployment benefits dissuade people from job-hunting "because people are being paid even though they're not working."
Unemployment insurance "doesn't create new jobs. In fact, if anything, continuing to pay people unemployment compensation is a disincentive for them to seek new work," Kyl said during debate over whether unemployment insurance and other benefits that expired amid GOP objections Sunday should be extended.
"I'm sure most of them would like work and probably have tried to seek it, but you can't argue that it's a job enhancer. If anything, as I said, it's a disincentive. And the same thing with the COBRA extension and the other extensions here," said Kyl.
Unemployment benefits are generally so small that much of it is often used to pay for COBRA health insurance, even when subsidized. The size of the benefits does not generally cover the cost of living and it would be hard to find a single person who would prefer unemployment to having a job so that they could get subsidized COBRA.
Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.), about as far from a populist as can be found in the Democratic Party, appeared surprised at Kyl's claim.
"The Senator from Arizona argues that unemployment insurance is a disincentive to jobs. Nothing could be further from the truth. I don't know anybody who's out of work and is receiving some unemployment insurance believes that that payment is sufficient not to find a job. The payments are so much lower than any salary or wage would be, it's just ridiculous. I might add, there are five unemployed Americans today for every job opening in the economy," said Baucus, chairman of the Finance Committee. "People are looking for work. They're not unemployed because of choice."
He added that Kyl's economic argument was flawed, as well. Unemployment benefits do create jobs because the recipients cycle the money through the economy. He cited a Congressional Budget Office analysis that said the Gross Domestic Product grew $1.90 for every dollar the federal government paid out.
Baucus, ever the bipartisan, gave Kyl a chance to take his accusation back.
"I don't know if the senator really meant this, but he certainly strongly implied, in fact, I took him to mean that unemployment insurance is a disincentive for people to look for work," said Baucus.
Kyl asked to clarify. "My colleague quoted me correctly -- almost correctly," he said. "I said, it's not a job creator. If anything, it could be argued that it is a disincentive for work, because people are being paid even though they're not working. I certainly did not say, and would never imply, that the reason people don't have jobs is because they're not looking for them. Now, it is true that a lot of Americans have gotten so tired of looking for jobs or -- or believe that they're not gong to find them, that they have stopped looking."
Still, Kyl concluded by standing by his statement.
"What I said is true and if my colleague could find a source that says it's not true, then please show me. But providing unemployment benefits does not create jobs," he said, though Baucus had already directed him to the CBO analysis.
Kyl could also consult economist Dean Baker of the Center for Economic and Policy Research. "It puts money into people's pockets and they spend almost all of it. That creates jobs," he said.
Arthur Delaney contributed reporting
Ryan Grim
ryan@huffingtonpost.com
GOP Sen. Kyl: Unemployment Benefits Make People Not Want To Get A Job
03- 1-10
A debate on the Senate floor Monday over unemployment compensation crystallized, at least for a moment, the divide between the two parties in Washington.
Sen. Jon Kyl of Arizona, the Republican whip, argued that unemployment benefits dissuade people from job-hunting "because people are being paid even though they're not working."
Unemployment insurance "doesn't create new jobs. In fact, if anything, continuing to pay people unemployment compensation is a disincentive for them to seek new work," Kyl said during debate over whether unemployment insurance and other benefits that expired amid GOP objections Sunday should be extended.
"I'm sure most of them would like work and probably have tried to seek it, but you can't argue that it's a job enhancer. If anything, as I said, it's a disincentive. And the same thing with the COBRA extension and the other extensions here," said Kyl.
Unemployment benefits are generally so small that much of it is often used to pay for COBRA health insurance, even when subsidized. The size of the benefits does not generally cover the cost of living and it would be hard to find a single person who would prefer unemployment to having a job so that they could get subsidized COBRA.
Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.), about as far from a populist as can be found in the Democratic Party, appeared surprised at Kyl's claim.
"The Senator from Arizona argues that unemployment insurance is a disincentive to jobs. Nothing could be further from the truth. I don't know anybody who's out of work and is receiving some unemployment insurance believes that that payment is sufficient not to find a job. The payments are so much lower than any salary or wage would be, it's just ridiculous. I might add, there are five unemployed Americans today for every job opening in the economy," said Baucus, chairman of the Finance Committee. "People are looking for work. They're not unemployed because of choice."
He added that Kyl's economic argument was flawed, as well. Unemployment benefits do create jobs because the recipients cycle the money through the economy. He cited a Congressional Budget Office analysis that said the Gross Domestic Product grew $1.90 for every dollar the federal government paid out.
Baucus, ever the bipartisan, gave Kyl a chance to take his accusation back.
"I don't know if the senator really meant this, but he certainly strongly implied, in fact, I took him to mean that unemployment insurance is a disincentive for people to look for work," said Baucus.
Kyl asked to clarify. "My colleague quoted me correctly -- almost correctly," he said. "I said, it's not a job creator. If anything, it could be argued that it is a disincentive for work, because people are being paid even though they're not working. I certainly did not say, and would never imply, that the reason people don't have jobs is because they're not looking for them. Now, it is true that a lot of Americans have gotten so tired of looking for jobs or -- or believe that they're not gong to find them, that they have stopped looking."
Still, Kyl concluded by standing by his statement.
"What I said is true and if my colleague could find a source that says it's not true, then please show me. But providing unemployment benefits does not create jobs," he said, though Baucus had already directed him to the CBO analysis.
Kyl could also consult economist Dean Baker of the Center for Economic and Policy Research. "It puts money into people's pockets and they spend almost all of it. That creates jobs," he said.
Arthur Delaney contributed reporting
Friday, November 20, 2009
What recovery?
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gNiyJ905Ho0Ur96V2TQhsBX19lGwD9BQB7CG0
What recovery? Unemployment shoots past 10 percent
By JEANNINE AVERSA and CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER (AP)
Nov 6, 2009
WASHINGTON — Just when it was beginning to look a little better, the economy relapsed Friday with a return to double-digit unemployment for only the second time since World War II and warnings that next year will be even worse than previously thought.
The jobless rate rocketed to 10.2 percent in October, the highest since early 1983, dealing a psychological blow to Americans as they prepare holiday shopping lists. It was another worse-than-expected report casting a shadow over the struggling recovery.
President Barack Obama called it "a sobering number that underscores the economic challenges that lie ahead." He signed a measure to extend unemployment benefits and to expand a tax credit for homebuyers.
Economists had not expected the 10 percent mark to come so quickly and immediately darkened their forecasts. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, and Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc., predicted the rate will peak at 11 percent by mid-2010. They earlier had projected 10.5 percent.
Unemployment at 11 percent would be a post-World War II record. Only once since then has joblessness hit double digits in the United States — from September 1982 to July 1983, topping out at 10.8 percent.
"It's not a good report," said Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist for New York-based investment firm Miller Tabak & Co. "What we're seeing is a validation of the idea that a jobless recovery is perfectly on track."
The Labor Department, using a survey of company payrolls, said the economy shed 190,000 jobs in October. A separate survey of households found 558,000 more people were unemployed last month than in September. Some 15.7 million Americans are out of work.
The survey of companies doesn't count the self-employed and undercounts employees of small businesses. So the economic picture could be even more dire.
One struggling small business, homebuilder Miller and Smith Inc. of McLean, Va., has trimmed its work force to about 100 from 350 at the height of the housing market in 2005. The company has been hurt by a slowdown in building and surging health care costs.
Troubles for small businesses could have a disproportionate effect on the economy, because they account for about 60 percent of the nation's jobs. They tend to rely on credit cards and home equity lines — both of which banks have tightened — for cash flow.
And the unemployment rate doesn't include people without jobs who have stopped looking, or those who have settled for part-time jobs. Counting those people, the unemployment rate would be 17.5 percent, the highest since at least 1994.
Economists had expected unemployment to rise to no more than 9.9 percent, up just a tick from September's 9.8 percent, and the surprising jump added to fears that the recovery could fizzle if Americans don't spend.
Already, consumer confidence for October came in well below what analysts were expecting. Shoppers' sentiments about the state of the economy are the gloomiest in nearly three decades.
Stores, always with an eye on holiday sales, are especially worried this year.
"This is a situation where the recovery balloon is getting off the ground but might not have enough power to keep rising," said Brian Bethune, economist at IHS Global Insight.
Sitting at a St. Louis unemployment center, Paul Branyon, who was laid off in July from a Williams-Sonoma factory in Tennessee and now lives with relatives, shook his head and laughed at the notion that the recession is over.
"It's getting actually harder right now," the 26-year-old said. "It seems like everywhere you go, people are losing jobs. People are cutting back. So it's going to get harder before it gets easier."
The economy actually grew from July to September for the first time in a year, but that's no consolation for people like Jose Betancourt, 57, who goes to a Miami-area career center twice a week to take computer education classes.
Betancourt has been out of work since July, when he was laid off from his supermarket maintenance job. He lives on about $600 a month in unemployment benefits, barely enough for the rent for his efficiency apartment, food and utilities.
He has trouble believing the recession is over. In his neighborhood, he sees other jobless people and empty stores.
"It's as if they just gave the economy a nice coat of varnish to make everyone feel better," he said. "I'm in a state of anxiety, and I see it all around Miami."
The worst recession since the 1930s may be over, but the recovery isn't expected to be strong enough to stem job losses and get businesses hiring again. And the unemployed are staying out of work longer. The count of people jobless for six months or longer stands at a record 5.6 million.
As for employers, few are confident enough in the recovery to hire. Art McKeen, plant manager of the Baldor Electric Co. factory in suburban St. Louis, says the plant has no plans add workers any time soon.
Baldor cut back production last year and put workers on part-time hours rather than lay them off. Orders have picked up again, but not enough to justify hiring. "We don't have the need for them right now," McKeen said.
Prospects that the government might pass a second stimulus bill appear dim. Congress is already grappling with sweeping health care legislation, raising concerns about further swelling the federal deficit.
"More debt, more spending ... clearly has not worked — particularly in a time of double-digit unemployment," said Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. Democrats said the economy would have been in worse shape without the first stimulus.
October was the 22nd straight month the U.S. economy has lost jobs, the longest on record dating back 70 years. Losses at factories, construction companies, retailers and financial services companies far outweighed gains in education and health care, professional and business services and elsewhere. Government payrolls were flat.
One faint sign of hope: Temporary employment grew by 33,700 jobs, its third straight month of gains after steep losses earlier this year. Employers are likely to add temporary workers before hiring permanent ones.
Chris Rupkey, an economist at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, called the big jump in the jobless rate "a kick in the stomach" and predicted a slog ahead. It could take at least four years for the jobless rate to drop to more normal levels of 5 or 6 percent.
"The last two recoveries from recession in the '90s and 2001 were jobless, and this one is clearly headed down the same road," he said.
Associated Press Writers Jim Kuhnhenn and Anne Flaherty in Washington, Emily Fredrix in Milwaukee, Christopher Leonard in St. Louis, Adrian Sainz in Miami, Andrew Vanacore in New York and Tom Murphy in Indianapolis contributed to this report.
What recovery? Unemployment shoots past 10 percent
By JEANNINE AVERSA and CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER (AP)
Nov 6, 2009
WASHINGTON — Just when it was beginning to look a little better, the economy relapsed Friday with a return to double-digit unemployment for only the second time since World War II and warnings that next year will be even worse than previously thought.
The jobless rate rocketed to 10.2 percent in October, the highest since early 1983, dealing a psychological blow to Americans as they prepare holiday shopping lists. It was another worse-than-expected report casting a shadow over the struggling recovery.
President Barack Obama called it "a sobering number that underscores the economic challenges that lie ahead." He signed a measure to extend unemployment benefits and to expand a tax credit for homebuyers.
Economists had not expected the 10 percent mark to come so quickly and immediately darkened their forecasts. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, and Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc., predicted the rate will peak at 11 percent by mid-2010. They earlier had projected 10.5 percent.
Unemployment at 11 percent would be a post-World War II record. Only once since then has joblessness hit double digits in the United States — from September 1982 to July 1983, topping out at 10.8 percent.
"It's not a good report," said Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist for New York-based investment firm Miller Tabak & Co. "What we're seeing is a validation of the idea that a jobless recovery is perfectly on track."
The Labor Department, using a survey of company payrolls, said the economy shed 190,000 jobs in October. A separate survey of households found 558,000 more people were unemployed last month than in September. Some 15.7 million Americans are out of work.
The survey of companies doesn't count the self-employed and undercounts employees of small businesses. So the economic picture could be even more dire.
One struggling small business, homebuilder Miller and Smith Inc. of McLean, Va., has trimmed its work force to about 100 from 350 at the height of the housing market in 2005. The company has been hurt by a slowdown in building and surging health care costs.
Troubles for small businesses could have a disproportionate effect on the economy, because they account for about 60 percent of the nation's jobs. They tend to rely on credit cards and home equity lines — both of which banks have tightened — for cash flow.
And the unemployment rate doesn't include people without jobs who have stopped looking, or those who have settled for part-time jobs. Counting those people, the unemployment rate would be 17.5 percent, the highest since at least 1994.
Economists had expected unemployment to rise to no more than 9.9 percent, up just a tick from September's 9.8 percent, and the surprising jump added to fears that the recovery could fizzle if Americans don't spend.
Already, consumer confidence for October came in well below what analysts were expecting. Shoppers' sentiments about the state of the economy are the gloomiest in nearly three decades.
Stores, always with an eye on holiday sales, are especially worried this year.
"This is a situation where the recovery balloon is getting off the ground but might not have enough power to keep rising," said Brian Bethune, economist at IHS Global Insight.
Sitting at a St. Louis unemployment center, Paul Branyon, who was laid off in July from a Williams-Sonoma factory in Tennessee and now lives with relatives, shook his head and laughed at the notion that the recession is over.
"It's getting actually harder right now," the 26-year-old said. "It seems like everywhere you go, people are losing jobs. People are cutting back. So it's going to get harder before it gets easier."
The economy actually grew from July to September for the first time in a year, but that's no consolation for people like Jose Betancourt, 57, who goes to a Miami-area career center twice a week to take computer education classes.
Betancourt has been out of work since July, when he was laid off from his supermarket maintenance job. He lives on about $600 a month in unemployment benefits, barely enough for the rent for his efficiency apartment, food and utilities.
He has trouble believing the recession is over. In his neighborhood, he sees other jobless people and empty stores.
"It's as if they just gave the economy a nice coat of varnish to make everyone feel better," he said. "I'm in a state of anxiety, and I see it all around Miami."
The worst recession since the 1930s may be over, but the recovery isn't expected to be strong enough to stem job losses and get businesses hiring again. And the unemployed are staying out of work longer. The count of people jobless for six months or longer stands at a record 5.6 million.
As for employers, few are confident enough in the recovery to hire. Art McKeen, plant manager of the Baldor Electric Co. factory in suburban St. Louis, says the plant has no plans add workers any time soon.
Baldor cut back production last year and put workers on part-time hours rather than lay them off. Orders have picked up again, but not enough to justify hiring. "We don't have the need for them right now," McKeen said.
Prospects that the government might pass a second stimulus bill appear dim. Congress is already grappling with sweeping health care legislation, raising concerns about further swelling the federal deficit.
"More debt, more spending ... clearly has not worked — particularly in a time of double-digit unemployment," said Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. Democrats said the economy would have been in worse shape without the first stimulus.
October was the 22nd straight month the U.S. economy has lost jobs, the longest on record dating back 70 years. Losses at factories, construction companies, retailers and financial services companies far outweighed gains in education and health care, professional and business services and elsewhere. Government payrolls were flat.
One faint sign of hope: Temporary employment grew by 33,700 jobs, its third straight month of gains after steep losses earlier this year. Employers are likely to add temporary workers before hiring permanent ones.
Chris Rupkey, an economist at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, called the big jump in the jobless rate "a kick in the stomach" and predicted a slog ahead. It could take at least four years for the jobless rate to drop to more normal levels of 5 or 6 percent.
"The last two recoveries from recession in the '90s and 2001 were jobless, and this one is clearly headed down the same road," he said.
Associated Press Writers Jim Kuhnhenn and Anne Flaherty in Washington, Emily Fredrix in Milwaukee, Christopher Leonard in St. Louis, Adrian Sainz in Miami, Andrew Vanacore in New York and Tom Murphy in Indianapolis contributed to this report.
Monday, October 12, 2009
The myth of the man-cession
http://blogs.reuters.com/columns/2009/10/06/the-myth-of-the-man-cession/
Christopher Swann
October 6th, 2009
The myth of the man-cession
Sometimes it’s hard to be a man. The current recession is a case in point.
Men account for three quarters of the 7 million U.S. job losses. That has led to talk of a “man-cession.” With male unemployment rampant, women are on the cusp of a historic breakthrough –before the end of the year, women are likely to form a majority of salaried U.S. workers for the first time.
The novelty of the man-cession has been overstated, however. Delve deeper, and men have not been doing so badly by historic standards. Nor have women been making great breakthroughs.
First, recessions are almost always man-cessions. In 2001, the most recent downturn, women accounted for just 14 percent of job losses, U.S. government figures show. The picture was even clearer in the recession of the early 1990s. Of the 1.2 million positions that disappeared, females accounted for just 22,000 — slightly less than 2 percent.
Nor can this be explained by the fact that there were fewer women working. Even in the early 1990s women accounted for 47 percent of the workforce.
The reason that men are more sensitive — to recessions at least — is that they are overrepresented in highly cyclical sectors. Nine out of 10 workers in construction, and seven out of 10 in manufacturing, are male. These sectors generally take the biggest tumble when the economy declines. Women, meanwhile, dominate the most cosseted portions of the economy: healthcare, education and government.
Despite this, the current downturn has been no cakewalk for women. While women have been better at clinging onto their jobs, they have not done so well holding onto their salaries. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, women in full-time work saw their annual earnings fall at twice the pace of men in the early stages of the recession — losing almost 2 percent last year.
The news actually gets worse for women. Most measures of employment and salary suggest the gender revolution has stalled. The gulf between male and female salaries, which narrowed dramatically in the last 25 years, has started to widen again.
In 2005 women on average earned 81 percent as much as men. By the end of last year, this was slipping back to 79.9 percent. Much of this is accounted for by shorter working hours and choice of industry.
Even taking this into account, however, academics like Shelley Correll at Stanford University have shown that there is still a “motherhood penalty” built into the workforce. Correll calculates that mothers who work just as hard as male counterparts earn about 5 percent less per child.
Progress on the desegregation of the workforce and attitudes to gender roles have not advanced since the mid-1990s. This is despite the fact that women are now outpacing men academically — earning 58 percent of bachelor’s degrees and 60 percent of master’s.
Since superior academic performance doesn’t seem to be narrowing the gap, we need a renewed drive by government and companies to root out discrimination and create a more family-friendly work place. Although the United States has excellent anti-discrimination laws, enforcement is woefully underfunded.
Another necessary but more expensive step would be greater provision of childcare. Increasing the length of the school day, lowering the starting age and reducing school vacations would all help — as could more generous paternity leave. Larger employers should be encouraged to expand the provision of workplace nurseries — a reliable way of attracting highly skilled mothers.
As the slide in manufacturing and production tails off, male workers can expect some relief. The problems of many women in the workforce are far more ingrained and harder to deal with. Man-cession aside, it’s still a man’s world.
Christopher Swann
October 6th, 2009
The myth of the man-cession
Sometimes it’s hard to be a man. The current recession is a case in point.
Men account for three quarters of the 7 million U.S. job losses. That has led to talk of a “man-cession.” With male unemployment rampant, women are on the cusp of a historic breakthrough –before the end of the year, women are likely to form a majority of salaried U.S. workers for the first time.
The novelty of the man-cession has been overstated, however. Delve deeper, and men have not been doing so badly by historic standards. Nor have women been making great breakthroughs.
First, recessions are almost always man-cessions. In 2001, the most recent downturn, women accounted for just 14 percent of job losses, U.S. government figures show. The picture was even clearer in the recession of the early 1990s. Of the 1.2 million positions that disappeared, females accounted for just 22,000 — slightly less than 2 percent.
Nor can this be explained by the fact that there were fewer women working. Even in the early 1990s women accounted for 47 percent of the workforce.
The reason that men are more sensitive — to recessions at least — is that they are overrepresented in highly cyclical sectors. Nine out of 10 workers in construction, and seven out of 10 in manufacturing, are male. These sectors generally take the biggest tumble when the economy declines. Women, meanwhile, dominate the most cosseted portions of the economy: healthcare, education and government.
Despite this, the current downturn has been no cakewalk for women. While women have been better at clinging onto their jobs, they have not done so well holding onto their salaries. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, women in full-time work saw their annual earnings fall at twice the pace of men in the early stages of the recession — losing almost 2 percent last year.
The news actually gets worse for women. Most measures of employment and salary suggest the gender revolution has stalled. The gulf between male and female salaries, which narrowed dramatically in the last 25 years, has started to widen again.
In 2005 women on average earned 81 percent as much as men. By the end of last year, this was slipping back to 79.9 percent. Much of this is accounted for by shorter working hours and choice of industry.
Even taking this into account, however, academics like Shelley Correll at Stanford University have shown that there is still a “motherhood penalty” built into the workforce. Correll calculates that mothers who work just as hard as male counterparts earn about 5 percent less per child.
Progress on the desegregation of the workforce and attitudes to gender roles have not advanced since the mid-1990s. This is despite the fact that women are now outpacing men academically — earning 58 percent of bachelor’s degrees and 60 percent of master’s.
Since superior academic performance doesn’t seem to be narrowing the gap, we need a renewed drive by government and companies to root out discrimination and create a more family-friendly work place. Although the United States has excellent anti-discrimination laws, enforcement is woefully underfunded.
Another necessary but more expensive step would be greater provision of childcare. Increasing the length of the school day, lowering the starting age and reducing school vacations would all help — as could more generous paternity leave. Larger employers should be encouraged to expand the provision of workplace nurseries — a reliable way of attracting highly skilled mothers.
As the slide in manufacturing and production tails off, male workers can expect some relief. The problems of many women in the workforce are far more ingrained and harder to deal with. Man-cession aside, it’s still a man’s world.
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Jobless rate hits 9.4 percent in May
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gNiyJ905Ho0Ur96V2TQhsBX19lGwD98KH8K80
Jobless rate hits 9.4 percent in May; layoffs slow
By JEANNINE AVERSA
6-5-9
WASHINGTON (AP) — With companies in no mood to hire, the unemployment rate jumped to 9.4 percent in May, the highest in more than 25 years. But the pace of layoffs eased, with employers cutting 345,000 jobs, the fewest since September.
The much smaller-than-expected reduction in payroll jobs, reported by the Labor Department on Friday, adds to evidence that the recession is loosening its hold on the country. It marked the fourth straight month that the pace of layoffs slowed.
Still, the increase in the nation's unemployment rate from 8.9 percent in April underscores the difficulties that America's 14.5 million unemployed are having in finding new jobs. Economists had expected the rate to hit 9.2 percent last month.
If laid-off workers who have given up looking for new jobs or have settled for part-time work are included, the unemployment rate would have been 16.4 percent in May, the highest on records dating to 1994.
Even with layoffs slowing, companies will be reluctant to hire until they feel certain that economic conditions are improving and that any recovery will last.
Since the recession began in December 2007, the economy has lost a net total of 6 million jobs.
As the recession — which is now the longest since World War II — bites into sales and profits, companies have turned to layoffs and other cost-cutting measures to survive the fallout. Those include holding down workers' hours and freezing or cutting pay.
The average work week in May fell to 33.1 hours, the lowest on records dating to 1964.
Job losses — while slower in May — were still widespread.
Construction companies cut 59,000 jobs, down from 108,000 in April. Factories cut 156,000, on top of 154,000 in the previous month. Retailers cut 17,500 positions, compared with 36,5000 in April. Financial activities cut 30,000, down from 45,000 in April. Even the government reduced employment — by 7,000 — after bulking up by 92,000 in March as it added workers for the 2010 Census.
Education, health care, leisure and hospitality were among the industries adding jobs in May.
Still, in another encouraging note, job losses in both March and April were less than previously thought. Employers cut 652,000 positions in March, versus 699,000 previously reported. They eliminated 504,000 jobs in April, less than the 539,000 initially estimated.
The deepest job cuts of the recession came in January when 741,000 jobs disappeared, the most since 1949.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke repeated his prediction this week that the recession will end this year, but again warned that any recovery will be gradual.
Many economists believe the jobless rate will hit 10 percent by the end of this year. Some think it could rise as high as 10.7 percent by the second quarter of next year before it starts to make a slow descent. The post-World War II high was 10.8 percent at the end of 1982.
The Fed says unemployment will remain elevated into 2011 given the expectation of tepid recovery. Economists say the job market may not get back to normal — meaning a 5 percent unemployment rate — until 2013. Economic recoveries after financial crises tend to be slower, economists say.
Evidence has been mounting that the recession is letting up, with fresh signs emerging earlier this week.
The number of people continuing to draw unemployment benefits dipped for the first time in 20 weeks, and first-time claims also fell. Manufacturing's slide is slowing. Builders are boosting spending on construction projects and a barometer of home sales firmed.
Although shoppers remain cautious according to sales results from major retailers, Bernanke and other economists are hopeful that consumers won't return to the deep hibernation seen at the end of last year.
That's when the recession hit with brutal force, causing the economy to contract at a 6.3 percent pace, the most in 25 years. Consumers cut their spending at the time by the most in nearly three decades. Economic activity shrank at a 5.7 percent pace in the first three months of this year, despite a rebound by consumers.
Many analysts believe the economy is shrinking at about a 2 percent pace in the current quarter, and that the economy could return to growth as soon as the third quarter. President Barack Obama's stimulus package should help bolster the economy.
Ripple-effects from General Motors Corp.'s filing for bankruptcy protection — the fourth largest in U.S. history — could muddy the outlook, some analysts said. GM said earlier this week it will close nine factories and idle three others indefinitely as part of its restructuring. The closings, which will take place through the end of 2010, will cost up to 20,000 workers their jobs.
Jobless rate hits 9.4 percent in May; layoffs slow
By JEANNINE AVERSA
6-5-9
WASHINGTON (AP) — With companies in no mood to hire, the unemployment rate jumped to 9.4 percent in May, the highest in more than 25 years. But the pace of layoffs eased, with employers cutting 345,000 jobs, the fewest since September.
The much smaller-than-expected reduction in payroll jobs, reported by the Labor Department on Friday, adds to evidence that the recession is loosening its hold on the country. It marked the fourth straight month that the pace of layoffs slowed.
Still, the increase in the nation's unemployment rate from 8.9 percent in April underscores the difficulties that America's 14.5 million unemployed are having in finding new jobs. Economists had expected the rate to hit 9.2 percent last month.
If laid-off workers who have given up looking for new jobs or have settled for part-time work are included, the unemployment rate would have been 16.4 percent in May, the highest on records dating to 1994.
Even with layoffs slowing, companies will be reluctant to hire until they feel certain that economic conditions are improving and that any recovery will last.
Since the recession began in December 2007, the economy has lost a net total of 6 million jobs.
As the recession — which is now the longest since World War II — bites into sales and profits, companies have turned to layoffs and other cost-cutting measures to survive the fallout. Those include holding down workers' hours and freezing or cutting pay.
The average work week in May fell to 33.1 hours, the lowest on records dating to 1964.
Job losses — while slower in May — were still widespread.
Construction companies cut 59,000 jobs, down from 108,000 in April. Factories cut 156,000, on top of 154,000 in the previous month. Retailers cut 17,500 positions, compared with 36,5000 in April. Financial activities cut 30,000, down from 45,000 in April. Even the government reduced employment — by 7,000 — after bulking up by 92,000 in March as it added workers for the 2010 Census.
Education, health care, leisure and hospitality were among the industries adding jobs in May.
Still, in another encouraging note, job losses in both March and April were less than previously thought. Employers cut 652,000 positions in March, versus 699,000 previously reported. They eliminated 504,000 jobs in April, less than the 539,000 initially estimated.
The deepest job cuts of the recession came in January when 741,000 jobs disappeared, the most since 1949.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke repeated his prediction this week that the recession will end this year, but again warned that any recovery will be gradual.
Many economists believe the jobless rate will hit 10 percent by the end of this year. Some think it could rise as high as 10.7 percent by the second quarter of next year before it starts to make a slow descent. The post-World War II high was 10.8 percent at the end of 1982.
The Fed says unemployment will remain elevated into 2011 given the expectation of tepid recovery. Economists say the job market may not get back to normal — meaning a 5 percent unemployment rate — until 2013. Economic recoveries after financial crises tend to be slower, economists say.
Evidence has been mounting that the recession is letting up, with fresh signs emerging earlier this week.
The number of people continuing to draw unemployment benefits dipped for the first time in 20 weeks, and first-time claims also fell. Manufacturing's slide is slowing. Builders are boosting spending on construction projects and a barometer of home sales firmed.
Although shoppers remain cautious according to sales results from major retailers, Bernanke and other economists are hopeful that consumers won't return to the deep hibernation seen at the end of last year.
That's when the recession hit with brutal force, causing the economy to contract at a 6.3 percent pace, the most in 25 years. Consumers cut their spending at the time by the most in nearly three decades. Economic activity shrank at a 5.7 percent pace in the first three months of this year, despite a rebound by consumers.
Many analysts believe the economy is shrinking at about a 2 percent pace in the current quarter, and that the economy could return to growth as soon as the third quarter. President Barack Obama's stimulus package should help bolster the economy.
Ripple-effects from General Motors Corp.'s filing for bankruptcy protection — the fourth largest in U.S. history — could muddy the outlook, some analysts said. GM said earlier this week it will close nine factories and idle three others indefinitely as part of its restructuring. The closings, which will take place through the end of 2010, will cost up to 20,000 workers their jobs.
Sunday, May 17, 2009
US jobless at 26-year high
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6251918.ece
May 9, 2009
US jobless at 26-year high but President Obama hopeful
Christine Seib
President Obama said that America was showing signs of economic recovery, even as the country's unemployment rate hit a near-26-year high.
Employers made 539,000 workers redundant in April, according to US Labour Department statistics - the fewest job cuts in six months and far better than the 620,000 reduction that economists had expected.
Mr Obama said that there was a “long way to go before we can put this recession behind us”, but added: “The gears of our economic engine do seem to be slowly turning once again.”
The figures were boosted by a spate of hiring by the Government, which took on 66,000 part-time workers to conduct next year's census.
However, the newly unemployed continued to struggle to find new jobs, pushing the unemployment rate from 8.5 per cent to 8.9 per cent, the highest level since late 1983.
When the number of job-seekers who gave up their search for work or took part-time jobs was included, the unemployment rate hit 15.8 per cent.
About 5.7 million Americans have lost their jobs since the recession started in December 2007.
Ben Bernanke, the US Federal Reserve Chairman, said this week that he expected the country to emerge from recession by the end of this year, but warned that the job market would remain sluggish because employers would take time to regain confidence and resume hiring.
Paul Ashworth, senior US economist at Capital Economics, had reservations about the figures because job-loss estimates earlier in the year have since been revised upwards.
In March, companies made 699,000 workers redundant, a figure that had been revised up from 663,000, while 681,000 workers lost their jobs in February, up from a previous estimate of 651,000. “Revisions to previous months increased the net job losses in February and March by a total of 66,000,” he said. “April's decline could eventually turn out to have been much bigger than it looks now.”
May 9, 2009
US jobless at 26-year high but President Obama hopeful
Christine Seib
President Obama said that America was showing signs of economic recovery, even as the country's unemployment rate hit a near-26-year high.
Employers made 539,000 workers redundant in April, according to US Labour Department statistics - the fewest job cuts in six months and far better than the 620,000 reduction that economists had expected.
Mr Obama said that there was a “long way to go before we can put this recession behind us”, but added: “The gears of our economic engine do seem to be slowly turning once again.”
The figures were boosted by a spate of hiring by the Government, which took on 66,000 part-time workers to conduct next year's census.
However, the newly unemployed continued to struggle to find new jobs, pushing the unemployment rate from 8.5 per cent to 8.9 per cent, the highest level since late 1983.
When the number of job-seekers who gave up their search for work or took part-time jobs was included, the unemployment rate hit 15.8 per cent.
About 5.7 million Americans have lost their jobs since the recession started in December 2007.
Ben Bernanke, the US Federal Reserve Chairman, said this week that he expected the country to emerge from recession by the end of this year, but warned that the job market would remain sluggish because employers would take time to regain confidence and resume hiring.
Paul Ashworth, senior US economist at Capital Economics, had reservations about the figures because job-loss estimates earlier in the year have since been revised upwards.
In March, companies made 699,000 workers redundant, a figure that had been revised up from 663,000, while 681,000 workers lost their jobs in February, up from a previous estimate of 651,000. “Revisions to previous months increased the net job losses in February and March by a total of 66,000,” he said. “April's decline could eventually turn out to have been much bigger than it looks now.”
Saturday, April 11, 2009
Unemployment Rate Jumps to 8.5 Percent
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/03/AR2009040300680.html
Unemployment Rate Jumps to 8.5 Percent, 663K Jobs Lost in March
Unemployment Rate Highest Since 1983
By Annys Shin
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, April 3, 2009
The nation's unemployment rate shot up from 8.1 to 8.5 percent last month, new figures out today show, as employers continued to slash jobs in the face of slumping demand.
The economy shed 663,000 jobs in March, the fourth straight month in which job losses have topped 600,000, according to Labor Department data.
A total of 5.1 million jobs have been lost since the recession began in December 2007, and more than 13 million people are unemployed.
The labor market is actually weaker than the official unemployment rate indicates. Groups excluded from the official count include people who are working part time but would rather be working full time, people who want to work but haven't looked for a job in the past month, and people who have become discouraged and given up looking. If those groups are included, the unemployment rate is 16.2 percent, up slightly from February.
The employment report casts a cloud over recent signs that the recession might be hitting bottom. Earlier this week, new orders for manufactured goods rose unexpectedly, suggesting the pace of that sector's decline may be slowing. Government data out Wednesday also showed the fall-off in construction spending starting to moderate.
However, it takes substantial improvement in the economy for employers to stop job cuts and to resume hiring, and economists say the worst days for the labor market will continue for some time. During recessions, unemployment tends to keep rising even after a recovery begins.
The last time the unemployment rate hit 8.5 percent was November 1983, after peaking at 10.8 percent in 1982. A growing number of economic forecasters now say they expect the unemployment rate to reach 10 percent sometime next year.
Job losses in March were spread over all sectors, with the exception of health care, which added jobs. Manufacturing lost 161,000 jobs. Construction lost 126,000, as a long-anticipated decline in non-residential construction set in. Professional and business services lost 133,000 jobs, with more than half of those losses coming from temporary help services, another sign that employers don't expect business to pick up for a while.
Rising unemployment will further dampen consumer spending, analysts said, and make it harder for households to cover their debts.
Wachovia economist John Silvia said today in a note to clients he was also troubled by the rise in the duration of unemployment. "Such increases suggest that the impact on those losing jobs will be longer and more severe. Therefore we expect greater financial stress, credit delinquencies and foreclosures."
Unemployment Rate Jumps to 8.5 Percent, 663K Jobs Lost in March
Unemployment Rate Highest Since 1983
By Annys Shin
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, April 3, 2009
The nation's unemployment rate shot up from 8.1 to 8.5 percent last month, new figures out today show, as employers continued to slash jobs in the face of slumping demand.
The economy shed 663,000 jobs in March, the fourth straight month in which job losses have topped 600,000, according to Labor Department data.
A total of 5.1 million jobs have been lost since the recession began in December 2007, and more than 13 million people are unemployed.
The labor market is actually weaker than the official unemployment rate indicates. Groups excluded from the official count include people who are working part time but would rather be working full time, people who want to work but haven't looked for a job in the past month, and people who have become discouraged and given up looking. If those groups are included, the unemployment rate is 16.2 percent, up slightly from February.
The employment report casts a cloud over recent signs that the recession might be hitting bottom. Earlier this week, new orders for manufactured goods rose unexpectedly, suggesting the pace of that sector's decline may be slowing. Government data out Wednesday also showed the fall-off in construction spending starting to moderate.
However, it takes substantial improvement in the economy for employers to stop job cuts and to resume hiring, and economists say the worst days for the labor market will continue for some time. During recessions, unemployment tends to keep rising even after a recovery begins.
The last time the unemployment rate hit 8.5 percent was November 1983, after peaking at 10.8 percent in 1982. A growing number of economic forecasters now say they expect the unemployment rate to reach 10 percent sometime next year.
Job losses in March were spread over all sectors, with the exception of health care, which added jobs. Manufacturing lost 161,000 jobs. Construction lost 126,000, as a long-anticipated decline in non-residential construction set in. Professional and business services lost 133,000 jobs, with more than half of those losses coming from temporary help services, another sign that employers don't expect business to pick up for a while.
Rising unemployment will further dampen consumer spending, analysts said, and make it harder for households to cover their debts.
Wachovia economist John Silvia said today in a note to clients he was also troubled by the rise in the duration of unemployment. "Such increases suggest that the impact on those losing jobs will be longer and more severe. Therefore we expect greater financial stress, credit delinquencies and foreclosures."
Thursday, March 26, 2009
California unemployment hits 10.5% in February
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-caljobs21-2009mar21,1,7712508.story
California unemployment hits 10.5% in February
After 116,000 jobs are lost for the month, the state's unemployment rate is the highest since April 1983.
By Marc Lifsher
March 21, 2009
Reporting from Sacramento -- California employers led the nation in mass layoffs in February as the state's unemployment rate hit 10.5%, the highest level since April 1983, state and federal labor agencies reported Friday.
The reductions cascaded across all areas of the Golden State's economy, hitting major corporations that included Circuit City Stores Inc., Yahoo Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. bank, Ralphs Grocery Co. and the Los Angeles law firm of Latham & Watkins, among others.
Big companies, which must file mandatory government reports every time they lay off at least 50 employees, gave pink slips to 45,557 Californians last month.
Nationally, mass layoff events reached a record high in February, affecting 295,477 jobs in all industries tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The biggest portion, about a third, were in manufacturing, followed by retail trade and transportation and warehousing.
California jobless rate
California's losses were far higher than Illinois', with 19,469 jobs lost. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were third and fourth.
But the mass layoffs were only a modest portion of the damage done to the Golden State's economy because the bulk of jobs are at small and medium-size businesses.
In all, California lost 116,000 jobs in February, bringing the 12-month total to 605,900.
Layoffs began 18 months ago in residential construction and moved to finance and wholesale and retail trade. Now, the state numbers show that cutbacks are hitting the once-secure bastions of healthcare, education and government services, sending new waves of unemployed workers to job-hunting centers.
"The job losses are intensifying and becoming more broad-based," said Esmael Adibi, an economist at Chapman University in Orange.
Construction, which continues to weaken, suffered the most in February, shedding 30,900 jobs. All other industries reported declines, with the exception of information, which includes television and movie production.
"Even the sectors that were considered recession-proof are losing steam," Adibi said.
California's jobless rate rose four-tenths of a percentage point in February, from 10.1% in January. A year earlier the rate was 6.2%. Unemployment in Los Angeles County increased by a slightly larger margin, to 10.9% in February from a revised 10.4% in January and 6.1% a year earlier.
Last month's national rate was 8.1%.
Both federal and California laws require employers to report large layoffs, though details of the mandates differ.
The tempo of layoffs is speeding up, state government officials warn.
"Since October, we've been getting these increasingly larger losses of jobs," said Howard Roth, chief economist for the California Department of Finance. He noted that February job losses were the heaviest in a single month since at least 1990.
What's more, the pace of disappearing jobs is hitting California disproportionately hard, compared with the other 49 states. California, which accounts for 11% of the national workforce, has suffered 18% of U.S. job losses.
California in recent years has been plagued by average job growth, a reversal from the superheated dot-com boom of the late 1990s, said Stephen Levy, director and senior economist at the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto.
Levy attributes the state's high unemployment rate to a combination of sharp job losses and a workforce that's ballooned by 350,000 people.
Growth, he said, "obviously depends on the success of national policies to boost employment and stabilize the housing and banking sectors."
That's what California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who met with President Obama on Friday at the White House, is counting on.
"My administration is working tirelessly with the federal government to pump federal economic stimulus funding into our economy to create jobs as quickly as possible," Schwarzenegger said in a statement. But, he cautioned, "the road to economic recovery will not be short."
The good economic news, meager as it might seem, is the assurance of federal aid from the Obama stimulus package and the Federal Reserve's move this week to ease credit, said Sung Won Sohn, an economist and Asian trade expert at Cal State Channel Islands.
"The federal help will not turn the economy around," he said, "but it will prevent the economy from getting worse."
marc.lifsher@latimes.com
California unemployment hits 10.5% in February
After 116,000 jobs are lost for the month, the state's unemployment rate is the highest since April 1983.
By Marc Lifsher
March 21, 2009
Reporting from Sacramento -- California employers led the nation in mass layoffs in February as the state's unemployment rate hit 10.5%, the highest level since April 1983, state and federal labor agencies reported Friday.
The reductions cascaded across all areas of the Golden State's economy, hitting major corporations that included Circuit City Stores Inc., Yahoo Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. bank, Ralphs Grocery Co. and the Los Angeles law firm of Latham & Watkins, among others.
Big companies, which must file mandatory government reports every time they lay off at least 50 employees, gave pink slips to 45,557 Californians last month.
Nationally, mass layoff events reached a record high in February, affecting 295,477 jobs in all industries tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The biggest portion, about a third, were in manufacturing, followed by retail trade and transportation and warehousing.
California jobless rate
California's losses were far higher than Illinois', with 19,469 jobs lost. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were third and fourth.
But the mass layoffs were only a modest portion of the damage done to the Golden State's economy because the bulk of jobs are at small and medium-size businesses.
In all, California lost 116,000 jobs in February, bringing the 12-month total to 605,900.
Layoffs began 18 months ago in residential construction and moved to finance and wholesale and retail trade. Now, the state numbers show that cutbacks are hitting the once-secure bastions of healthcare, education and government services, sending new waves of unemployed workers to job-hunting centers.
"The job losses are intensifying and becoming more broad-based," said Esmael Adibi, an economist at Chapman University in Orange.
Construction, which continues to weaken, suffered the most in February, shedding 30,900 jobs. All other industries reported declines, with the exception of information, which includes television and movie production.
"Even the sectors that were considered recession-proof are losing steam," Adibi said.
California's jobless rate rose four-tenths of a percentage point in February, from 10.1% in January. A year earlier the rate was 6.2%. Unemployment in Los Angeles County increased by a slightly larger margin, to 10.9% in February from a revised 10.4% in January and 6.1% a year earlier.
Last month's national rate was 8.1%.
Both federal and California laws require employers to report large layoffs, though details of the mandates differ.
The tempo of layoffs is speeding up, state government officials warn.
"Since October, we've been getting these increasingly larger losses of jobs," said Howard Roth, chief economist for the California Department of Finance. He noted that February job losses were the heaviest in a single month since at least 1990.
What's more, the pace of disappearing jobs is hitting California disproportionately hard, compared with the other 49 states. California, which accounts for 11% of the national workforce, has suffered 18% of U.S. job losses.
California in recent years has been plagued by average job growth, a reversal from the superheated dot-com boom of the late 1990s, said Stephen Levy, director and senior economist at the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto.
Levy attributes the state's high unemployment rate to a combination of sharp job losses and a workforce that's ballooned by 350,000 people.
Growth, he said, "obviously depends on the success of national policies to boost employment and stabilize the housing and banking sectors."
That's what California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who met with President Obama on Friday at the White House, is counting on.
"My administration is working tirelessly with the federal government to pump federal economic stimulus funding into our economy to create jobs as quickly as possible," Schwarzenegger said in a statement. But, he cautioned, "the road to economic recovery will not be short."
The good economic news, meager as it might seem, is the assurance of federal aid from the Obama stimulus package and the Federal Reserve's move this week to ease credit, said Sung Won Sohn, an economist and Asian trade expert at Cal State Channel Islands.
"The federal help will not turn the economy around," he said, "but it will prevent the economy from getting worse."
marc.lifsher@latimes.com
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
February Payrolls Fall 651,000
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/03/06/afx6135137.html
US ECON: February Payrolls Fall 651,000; Unemployment At 8.1%
03.06.09
Washington, March 6 - US unemployment rate surged to 8.1% in February, a 25 year high, as the US shed another 651,000 and December's job losses were revised to largest decline in fifty years, the Labor Department said today.
The 651,000 job loss in February came in slightly above the 648,000 lost jobs economists were expecting. But this came after the economy lost 655,000 jobs in January and 681,000 jobs in December; December saw the largest job loss since October 1949. The December/January revisions added another 161,000 lost jobs to the two months for a cumulative 1.3 mln jobs lost.
The economy has now lost 4.168 mln jobs over the last twelve months and a total 4.384 mln since January 2008, when the economy began shedding jobs. More than half of the total losses have occured in the last four months.
Economists have said the economy needs to create about 100,000 jobs each month to keep up with new workers, but with February's numbers, the economy has averaged a loss of about 345,000 jobs per month over the last 12 months.
The unemployment rate, taken from a separate survey of households, rose to 8.1% in February, the highest rate since December 1983. Economists were expecting unemployment to rise to 7.9% from the 7.6% reported in January.
The labor force participation rate, which includes the number of working-aged people with jobs, rose slightly to 65.6%.
Services jobs are usually a major factor in job gains, but 375,000 jobs were lost in this sector in February. Service-sector jobs have declined for the last 14 months.
Construction jobs fell once again, by 104,000, and manufacturing jobs lost 168,000. Manufacturing jobs have not increased in 32 months. Retail jobs fell by 39,500, and February was the 15th straight month of job losses in this sector.
Government added 9,000 jobs in the month and education/health services added 26,000 jobs.
Average hourly wages rose by 0.2% in February as expected. That translated to a gain of 3 cents, putting the average hourly wage at $18.47.
The average workweek was unchanged at 33.3 as expected.
tessa.moran@thomsonreuters.com
US ECON: February Payrolls Fall 651,000; Unemployment At 8.1%
03.06.09
Washington, March 6 - US unemployment rate surged to 8.1% in February, a 25 year high, as the US shed another 651,000 and December's job losses were revised to largest decline in fifty years, the Labor Department said today.
The 651,000 job loss in February came in slightly above the 648,000 lost jobs economists were expecting. But this came after the economy lost 655,000 jobs in January and 681,000 jobs in December; December saw the largest job loss since October 1949. The December/January revisions added another 161,000 lost jobs to the two months for a cumulative 1.3 mln jobs lost.
The economy has now lost 4.168 mln jobs over the last twelve months and a total 4.384 mln since January 2008, when the economy began shedding jobs. More than half of the total losses have occured in the last four months.
Economists have said the economy needs to create about 100,000 jobs each month to keep up with new workers, but with February's numbers, the economy has averaged a loss of about 345,000 jobs per month over the last 12 months.
The unemployment rate, taken from a separate survey of households, rose to 8.1% in February, the highest rate since December 1983. Economists were expecting unemployment to rise to 7.9% from the 7.6% reported in January.
The labor force participation rate, which includes the number of working-aged people with jobs, rose slightly to 65.6%.
Services jobs are usually a major factor in job gains, but 375,000 jobs were lost in this sector in February. Service-sector jobs have declined for the last 14 months.
Construction jobs fell once again, by 104,000, and manufacturing jobs lost 168,000. Manufacturing jobs have not increased in 32 months. Retail jobs fell by 39,500, and February was the 15th straight month of job losses in this sector.
Government added 9,000 jobs in the month and education/health services added 26,000 jobs.
Average hourly wages rose by 0.2% in February as expected. That translated to a gain of 3 cents, putting the average hourly wage at $18.47.
The average workweek was unchanged at 33.3 as expected.
tessa.moran@thomsonreuters.com
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
