Sunday, February 3, 2013

Robalini's Super Bowl Pick

Here's my results for Week 20
W-L-T record: 2-0
Regular season record: 72-64
Playoff record: 6-4
Total record: 78-68

It was a tough season with a slow start, but for the second year of doing this I've finished making money in both the regular season & the playoffs.  And I'm even prouder of doing it this year, since I had to change my strategy repeatedly to do it.  Anyway, here's the Super Bowl pick...

Baltimore Ravens - San Francisco 49ers

The Graduate Factor:

Studying Las Vegas betting is often a revealing thing.  In the case of the big game, according to news sources, more bettors are placing bets on the Ravens, but the 49ers actually have more money on them overall.

This makes sense.  Of course the Ravens have more bets on them, because they have the more compelling story.  But the 49ers have more money, because the smart money is not swayed by emotion, and the 49ers are the better team.

That isn't to dismiss the Ravens, what they've done in the playoffs, and even their chances in SB XLVII.  If they were healthier and the 49ers more injury plagued, I would take them.  If somehow a healthy Ray Lewis would return next year for a final farewell tour, I would make them a Super Bowl favorite for the 2013 season.  But this year, as great as their run has been, it's too little, too late.  Cheap shot this may be, but deer antler can only take you so far.

I suspect the Ravens at least partly hear this in the back of their own minds.  Ed Reed, who the last few years mulled retirement in the offseason, has already announced he will return next year, and has hinted that Lewis may return as well after all.  Strategically, it would have wiser to at least lie and double down on Lewis' alleged retirement with his own, but Reed reveals the truth with his own actions: he's coming back another year because he knows they don't have enough to win it all.

The 49ers, meanwhile, will tie the Steelers with six Super Bowl wins, and with this defense they will probably get number seven sooner rather than later.  This an incredible team, let the coronation begin.

San Francisco 49ers (-3 1/2) over Baltimore Ravens

All bets are placed at Station Casinos:

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends


Anonymous said...

I expect shit calls from the refs in basketball but for the NFL to set up a game to beat the 4.5 point spread is crap. That has got to be the worst ref'ing in the history of sports.

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