Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

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Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Wednesday, December 05, 2007

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows a new national leader in the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination. While enjoying an amazing surge, Mike Huckabee has earned support from 20% of Likely Republican Primary Voters nationwide. Three points back, at 17%, is Rudy Giuliani. That’s the lowest level of support ever recorded for Giuliani in the tracking poll and represents a seven-point decline over the past week. Huckabee has gained eight points during the same time frame (see recent daily numbers).

Just as significant as the new leader is the amazingly competitive nature of the race. Five candidates are within ten points of the lead and all five could conceivably become the party’s eventual nominee. In addition to Huckabee and Giuliani, John McCain and Mitt Romney are at 13%, and Fred Thompson is at 10% (see recent daily numbers). In what could become a major moment in the campaign, Romney will give a speech on faith and religion Thursday. Huckabee recently declined to comment on Romney’s faith but did say it was appropriate to discuss religion in a campaign setting (see video).

Ron Paul is the only other candidate with measurable support and he currently attracts 7% of Likely Republican Primary voters nationwide.

Results for the Presidential Tracking Poll are obtained through nightly telephone interviews and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. Next update scheduled for Thursday at 11:00 a.m. Eastern.

Huckabee has also moved in front of Hillary Clinton in the state of Arkansas.

Polls recently released by other firms have recently shown Huckabee surging but Giuliani still retaining his lead. For example, a recent Gallup poll showed Giuliani leading Huckabee by nine percentage points. The difference between the two results is partly the result of timing as Rasmussen Reports provides new information more frequently than any other firm. On the dates of the Gallup survey, Rasmussen Reports showed Giuliani still leading Huckabee by three. Since the Gallup survey was completed, Huckabee has gained a net six points over Giuliani.

Additionally, Rasmussen Reports screens for Likely Primary voters while Gallup surveyed Adults. Neither approach is necessarily right or wrong, but Primary Voters tend to be more conservative than Republicans generally. As a result, a poll that screens for Likely Primary Voters is likely to show more support for Huckabee than a poll that measures the opinions of Republican and Republican leaning adults.

While not falling as far as Giuliani, Hillary Clinton has lost ground recently in the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. The former First Lady now attracts 34% of the vote nationwide. That’s the lowest level of support recorded for Clinton since Rasmussen Reports began daily tracking in mid-July (see recent daily numbers). In weekly results, Clinton’s support hasn’t been this low since April. (see history of full week results from January 18 to present).

Barack Obama is now within ten points of Clinton with 24% support nationwide. Among Democrats, Clinton, Obama, and John Edwards are locked in a tight battle leading up to the Iowa caucuses. Clinton still leads in New Hampshire, but her lead is declining. The former First Lady of both Arkansas and the United States recently stepped up her attacks on Obama in Iowa (see video).

John Edwards earns 16% of the vote while Bill Richardson attracts 7% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters nationwide. No other Democratic candidate tops 3% (see recent daily numbers).
Results for the Presidential Tracking Poll are obtained through nightly telephone interviews and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. Next update scheduled for Thursday at 11:00 a.m. Eastern.

It remains unclear whether the current round of Huck-a-mania is nothing more than Mike Huckabee’s fifteen minutes of fame of if the former Arkansas Governor has a serious chance of winning the Republican nomination. But, there is no doubt that he has shaken up the race-- Huckabee is also a frontrunner in Iowa, essentially tied for second in New Hampshire, and has pulled to within a single percentage point of Hillary Clinton in a general election match-up.

For the Democrats, polling in Iowa continues to show a toss-up between Clinton, Obama, and Edwards. Clinton still leads in New Hampshire but her lead has declined to single digits. Nationally, just 24% think that Iowa and New Hampshire voters are “lucky” to vote first. Nearly twice as many believe the state’s voters are unlucky because they have to put up with all the campaigning during the holiday season.

Yesterday, Rasmussen Reports released new state polling data showing Colorado to be very competitive in the 2008 Presidential election. That state’s Senate race between Bob Schaffer (R) and Mark Udall (D) is also a toss-up. In Arizona, the big story is John McCain’s comeback. His favorable ratings fell below the 50% mark during the Senate debate on immigration but he is now back in much more comfortable territory.

See Rasmussen Reports general election match-ups and other key stats for all Republican and Democratic candidates.

The Rasmussen Reports Election 2008 Presidential Tracking Poll is updated daily. Today is the first day of regular weekend updates.

Daily tracking results are from survey interviews conducted over four days ending last night. Each update includes approximately 750 Likely Democratic Primary Voters and 600 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Rasmussen Reports provides a weekly analysis of both the Republican and Democratic race each Monday.

Each Monday, full week results are released based upon a seven-day rolling average. While the daily tracking result are useful for measuring quick reaction to events in the news, the full week results provide an effective means for evaluating longer-term trends.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.