Thursday, October 11, 2012

Robalini's Week 6 NFL Picks

Here's my results for week 5
W-L-T record: 3-4
Season record: 20-23

Tennessee Titans (+6) over Pittsburgh Steelers

On first glance, this doesn't look like a close one.  The Titans, after all, are 1-4 and have given up an NFL high 181 points after 5 weeks.  The Steelers, meanwhile, have struggled to 2-2 so far, but are the team in 2011 with the 3rd best record in AFC and the best defense in the NFL.  But look under the hood with the Titans: their four losses are to the Patriots, the Chargers, the Texans and the Vikings, four teams with a combined 15-5 record that are among the league's finest.  Their one victory is against the Detroit Lions, a team that is no slouch on offense, and that puts their defensive stats in the proper context.  Meanwhile, the Steelers are rather banged up after a tough battle against the physical Philadelphia Eagles, and three days rest just isn't enough time to heal that bruising.  Troy Polamalu is out, and LB LaMarr Woodley may play but has a strained hamstring.  This should help Matt Hasselback and an underproducing Chris Johnson.  Having the home field advantage should help as well.  Considering Ben Roethlisberger's prowess on 3rd down and the 4th quarter this year, it still seems likely the Steelers can win in Tennessee, but giving the Titans 6 points makes this too tempting to pick them in a close one.

Cincinnati Bengals (-1) over Cleveland Browns

As this season progresses, I have become more impressed with the Bengals.  I can't say the same for the Browns.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) over Kansas City Chiefs

The Bucs three losses come from the always tough NFC East.  They should have an easier time at home against the Chiefs.

Baltimore Ravens (-3 1/2) over Dallas Cowboys

Will my love affair with the Ravens (the only team I have yet to bet against since 2011) stop?  Not at home against the Cowboys.

New England Patriots (-3 1/2) over Seattle Seahawks

Seattle is still better than given credit for, and the Pats offensive line has some major holes.  But no matter: the Pats offense looks scary good in a way that no other team can match.

Arizona Cardinals (-5) over Buffalo Bills

Okay, they're no longer undefeated, but they still have an excellent defense, and the Bills defense has been absolutely humiliated the last two weeks.

New York Giants (+6) over San Francisco 49ers

There is no loyalty in betting, even to my beloved Niners.  But six points is a lot to give the Giants and Eli Manning.  Worst case scenario for me: I'll be happy to lose a bet.

Green Bay Packers (+4) over Houston Texans

As the rule has gone for 40 years, every team has to lose sometime.  This may be the Texans week, against a Packer team with a lot to prove.  Maybe the Texans can win, but I'm betting even then by a field goal or less.

All bets are placed at Station Casinos:

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends


Anonymous said...

"You would be "happy to lose a bet" should the Niners win? Betting is being ruthless about money. The team you bet on is your favorite team for that week. You can't rationalize losing a bet. No wonder you gave up on your "hot picks" and have a record below .500!

Robalini said...

Hey anonymous, at least I have the guts to put my name to my statements. Check my record last year and come back to me, Mr. so-called Ruthless About Money. You sound like another armchair psychopath who's read Atlas Shrugged too many times but is too big of a pussy to actually chrush his enemies like a true Nietzsche superman...