Thursday, November 15, 2012

Robalini's Week 11 NFL Picks

Here's my results for week 10
W-L-T record: 3-4
Season record: 39-39

This week is Big Dog Week...

Buffalo Bills (-2) over Miami Dolphins

Given that the Dolphins are going on the road after a short 3-day rest following a demoralizing loss to play the Titans, to play in Buffalo where it will be close to freezing, all this smells like a loss to Miami.

Green Bay Packers (-3 1/2) over Detroit Lions

The Packers are quietly looking as tough as any team in the NFL.

Arizona Cardinals (+10) over Atlanta Falcons

Big Dog #1: It's not that I don't like the Falcons, it's just everyone really likes the Falcons and so they're giving way too many points.  Giving the Cards ten points is a good bet.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1 1/2) over Carolina Panthers

The Bucs are proving themselves formidable opponents, with an incredible rushing attack due to rookie Doug Martin (who may deserve ROTY even more than RGIII or Andrew Luck) and Josh Freeman covertly having a great season (18-5 TD-Int ratio.)

Cleveland Browns (+7 1/2) over Dallas Cowboys

Big Dog #2: I'm not a fan of the Browns (in fact, this is first time I'm betting on them in over 1 1/2 seasons) but after 9 games they're -42 in net points (or less than 5 a game) while the underachieving Cowboys are -16.  This smells like a close game, so I'll take the points.

Indianapolis Colts (+9) over New England Patriots

Big Dog #3: Is Andrew Luck and the Colts equal to the Pats and Tom Brady?  Nope.  Can they keep it within nine points?  Yes.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+16) over Houston Texans

Big Dog #4: Yes, the Texans may be the best team in football, and yes, the Jaguars may be the worst, but sixteen points is too many for an NFL game.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3 1/2) over Kansas City Chiefs

Whatever the flaws of the Bengals, they're on a higher level than the Chiefs.

San Diego Chargers (+8) over Denver Broncos

Big Dog #5: I'm a big fan of the Broncos and Peyton Manning, but eight points to the Chargers (a quality team, despite their underachieving record) is way too much.

All bets are placed at Station Casinos:

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends

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