Thursday, November 22, 2012

Robalini's Week 12 NFL Thanksgiving Picks

Here's my results for week 11
W-L-T record: 8-1
Season record: 47-40

Best week yet!  After a 7-2 week two weeks ago.  The punch line: I could have had an even better week.  I passed on them, but I really liked the Saints, 49ers, Redskins and Steelers last week.  (The only game I had no strong opinion on was Jets vs. Rams.)  Those games I would've gone 3-0-1 (Pittsburgh was +3, so that game would've been a push) or a 11-1-1 total.  Of course, could haves don't count, but it does seem I'm getting better at picking teams this year.

There's still some Sunday-Monday games off the board, so I'll post those picks later, but here's my picks for Turkey Day:

Houston Texans (-3 1/2) over Detroit Lions

Finally the point spread of a Texan game isn't out of whack, mainly due to their underperformance in a OT win against the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars where they were favored by 16.  But don't be fooled: Houston is still one of the top teams in the NFL, and the Lions have taken a serious step back this year.

Washington Redskins (+3) over Dallas Cowboys

Tony Romo & the Cowboys tend to do well on Thanksgiving.  But RGIII knows Cowboys Stadium so he won't be intimidated, and is a strutting peacock who loves the big stage.  I expect him to strut.

New England Patriots (-7) over New York Jets

I've betting winning big lately on big point spreads, but I'm going double contrarian here.  The Pats look pretty scarry good now, with Tom Brady looking like psycho Tom.  Meanwhile, Rex Ryan is looking like the Billy Martin of football, a brilliant coach and great motivator for awhile, but whose act quickly grows thin.  Maybe the Jets can pull an upset, but don't bet on it.

All bets are placed at Station Casinos:

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends

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