Friday, January 11, 2013

Robalini's Week 19 NFL Picks

Here's my results for Week 18
W-L-T record: 3-1
Regular season record: 72-64
Total record: 75-65

Baltimore Ravens - Denver Broncos

The Graduate Factor:
The Ravens had their emotional last-game-at-home-for-Ray-Lewis victory against the Colts last week.  Mile High Stadium will be a little tougher, especially with Peyton Manning expecting no less than a Super Bowl victory.  But the point spread is 9 1/2, and that's pretty high, especially with Manning's dubious history in cold weather.  My advice: go with the Ravens as dogs, but hold off betting because it should go to 10 or more before kickoff.

Baltimore Ravens (+9 1/2) over Denver Broncos

Green Bay Packers - San Francisco 49ers

The Graduate Factor:
The Packers are ready to win the Super Bowl they expected to win last year.  The 49ers are starting a guy in his playoff game who still has difficulty with the complexities of taking a snap from the center.  What makes this game interesting is that Green Bay is getting 3 points at Station Casinos but is a -120 pick at the spread.  So instead of taking the points, I recommend betting on the MoneyLine at +130.

Green Bay Packers (ML +130) San Francisco 49ers

Seattle Seahawks - Atlanta Falcons

The Graduate Factor:
Yeah, I know the Seahawks are the hottest team in football, but by already getting to the conference semis they've exceeded even their own expectations at this point.  Meanwhile, the Falcons are out to prove they're not just a regular season team.  They should do it in a home game in the noisy Georgia Dome against a West Coast team traveling east to play a 10:00 AM game.  Falcon bonus: they pay even on the spread now.

Atlanta Falcons (-3) over Seattle Seahawks

Houston Texans - New England Patriots

The Graduate Factor:
The Texans looked good in their win against the Bengals, but good enough to beat the Patriots?  Probably not.  But the point spread is 9 1/2, like in Denver, and if you hold off betting, it should go to 10 as well.  Look for a closer game than expected and bet the dog.

Houston Texans (+9 1/2) over New England Patriots

All bets are placed at Station Casinos:

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends


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