Saturday, January 5, 2013

Robalini's Week 18 NFL Picks

Here's my results for Week 17
W-L-T record: 5-3
Season record: 72-64

After a winning regular season, here comes the playoffs and what I call:

The Graduate Factor

If you've ever seen The Graduate, probably the most memorable moment is at the end of the film, when Dustin Hoffman and Katharine Ross joyfully sit down on a bus.  The joy soon leaves their face, however, as they realize they have no clue what they are going to do next.

In the NFL playoffs, the team that most resembles Dustin Hoffman and Katharine Ross at the end of The Graduate is most likely the teams that is going to exit.  With that in mind...

Cincinnati Bengals - Houston Texans

The Graduate Factor:
The Bengals have exceeded most people's expectations just by making the playoffs the second year in a row, and Andy Dalton is looking like he's not a flash in the pan.  Meanwhile, the Texans have lost 3 out of 4 and are being labelled chokers because of their late season stumble.  Paradoxically, this benefits the Texans, who will feel the need to prove they deserve to sit at the big table with the Patriots and Peyton Manning's Broncos.  Look for them to dominate at home.

Houston Texans (-4 1/2) over Cincinnati Bengals

Minnesota Vikings - Green Bay Packers

The Graduate Factor:
The Vikings, who went 3-13 last season, managed to make the playoffs this year with a win last week at home against the Packers, with Adrian Peterson closing out a MVP-level season with over 2000 yards rushing.  Meanwhile, the Packers, led by 2011 NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers, still feel wounded over losing against the New York Giants last year in the playoffs after a 15-1 season.  They still feel like they should've won the Super Bowl last year, and seem determined to do it this year.  Look for them to dominate the Vikings at home as well.

Green Bay Packers (-7 1/2) over Minnesota Vikings

Indianapolis Colts - Baltimore Ravens

The Graduate Factor:
The Colts and Andrew Luck have exceeded all expectations all season.  Meanwhile, this will be the final home game in the NFL career of Ray Lewis.  All this says the Ravens should win, and they probably will.  But the Ravens are an old, wounded team falling backwards into the playoffs.  The adrenalizing push Lewis provides should give this team a victory, but a close victory that doesn't the touchdown spread.

Indianapolis Colts (+7) over Baltimore Ravens

Seattle Seahawks - Washington Redskins

The Graduate Factor:
Both teams are led by rookie QBs (Russell Wilson and RGIII) who have had amazing seasons.  Here's the difference: though the Seahawks finished as the wild card pick, they have been playing like a presumed playoff team for quite awhile.  Meanwhile, the Redskins managed to squeak in with a divisions title after winning their final seven.  The Seahawks are clearly ready for more, while the Skins are just happy to get to the dance.

Seattle Seahawks (-3) over Washington Redskins

All bets are placed at Station Casinos:

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends


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