Friday, January 6, 2012

Robalini's Week 18 NFL Picks

Here's my results for week 17 W-L-T record: 5-4-2
Final regular season record: 73-60-7

A final regular season winning percentage of 55%. Pretty good...

So here are my Wild Card Playoff round picks:

Houston Texans (-3) Over Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are 9-3 against teams not named the Steelers or Ravens, so on that basis they would look to be a good bet. Except look at their resume: there isn't a victory against a single playoff team. And though I've been betting against the Texans, they've done good enough without Matt Schaub (thanks to good play by T.J. Yates, a great rushing attack lead by Arian Foster, and solid defensive play) for me to be confident they can win a playoff game at home...

New Orleans Saints (-10 1/2) Over Detroit Lions

I've been a fan of the Lions all year, and I will say right now (barring the unforseen) they are pick to win the Super Bowl in 2013. But this is 2012, and they just aren't there yet. Especially against a team as explosively hot as the Saints. Yes, the point spread is high, but Drew Brees is even more frightening to face right now than Aaron Rodgers...

New York Giants (-3) Over Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons look actually more solid than they did in 2010 when they were 13-3, and they've proven they are going to be in Super Bowl contention for awhile. But the Giants are hot: Eli Manning is playing better than I've ever seen, their defense is intimidating, and they are playing at home in New York. They probably won't repeat their 2007 Super Bowl success, but they should win this game and be a very serious threat next week against the Packers...

Pittsburgh Steelers (-8) Over Denver Broncos

I've been a Tim Tebow supporter all season, but with a three-game losing streak entering the playoffs (with Tebow playing horribly the last two weeks) it doesn't look good for the Broncos. The Steelers will shut Tebow down, period. The only question is how potent the Steeler offense will be on the road. Ben Roethlisberger has played great this year (only Tom Brady has been a better AFC QB this year) but he's been hurt the last four weeks and it shows. They've scored only 30 points in his last three starts, and two of those games were against the 4-12 Browns. (I almost think they should let the competently efficient backup Charlie Batch start.) Still, I'll stick with Pittsburgh crushing the Broncos on the road with Big Ben taking it up a notch...

All bets are placed at Station Casinos:

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends

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