Sunday, September 9, 2012

Robalini's Week 1 NFL Picks

A little note: I'm not a big fan of parlay bets.  In the long run, they have a smaller payout than if you bet one-on-one each game like I prefer.  I also have found the "sure" bets tend to not do that much better than ones I don't have the 100 percent conviction of.  With that disclaimer attached, here's my favorite three games:

Atlanta Falcons (-3) over Kansas City Chiefs
This one, believe it or not, started as a pick 'em.  The Chiefs are getting a lot of hype at the start of the season, but I don't buy it at all, even if they're at home.  The Falcons, on the other hand, are a real Super Bowl contender.  Note the Dirty are also a even payout and not -110, so that makes them a better value.

Seattle Seahawks (-3) over Arizona Cardinals
An even greater point spread swing, the Cards actually started favored by 2 1/2.  Again, the big bettors got this right: the Seahawks have a great coach, a great and an a rookie QB who looks to be very efficient.  Seattle also is an even payout and not -110.

San Diego Chargers (+1) over Oakland Raiders
Besides the Raiders home field advantage, the point spread must be due to the Charger deserved notorious rep of starting slow.  But the Chargers are still a seriously talented team who should take care of a Raiders team that has had too much coaching turnover.

Here's my other six picks:

Philadelphia Eagles (-9 1/2) over Cleveland Browns
9 1/2 is a lot of points, but the Eagles are very good and the Browns aren't.

New York Jets (-3) Over Buffalo Bills
This is a tough game, but I'll take the Jets a field goal at home over a Bills team that looks like a playoff threat.  The real selling point: the Jets are another even payoff team rather than -110, making this a great rate of return game.  (If it isn't even payout where you bet, I advise a pass on this game.)

New Orleans Saints (-7 1/2) over Washington Redskins
This game started as Saints -11, and that would've still been a tempting bet.  I love RG3, but a rookie on the road in the Superdome against the most frightening offense in football?  Forget it.

Detroit Lions (-7 1/2) over St. Louis Rams
The Lions like to beat up on weaker, helpless teams.  The Rams fit the bill.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+1 1/2) over Denver Broncos
Peyton Manning should have a tougher time in his return to the NFL against last year's number one defense than Tim Tebow did the last time they played.

Baltimore Ravens (-7) over Cincinnati Bengals
I just don't take the Bengals seriously yet.  Sorry.

Here's the games I passing and why:

Chicago Bears (-9 1/2) Indianapolis Colts
The Bears are a serious Super Bowl threat, but 9 1/2 is a lot of points, and before I give those points to the Colts, I want to see just how good Andrew Luck is.  (My guess is he'll be, like RG3, real good from the start.)

Tennessee Titans (+5 1/2) New England Patriots
There's a lot of experts picking the Patriots to go undefeated this season and it's not an implausible scenario.  Still, they looked out of sync in preseason, and 5 1/2 points are a lot on the road against a team that had a winning record last season.

Minnesota Vikings (-4) Jacksonville Jaguars
The Vikings were much better last year than their 2-14 record would suggest, and they are at home.  But the Jags have MJD back, and running backs miss preseason less than other players.

Houston Texans (-13) Miami Dolphins

The Texans are my AFC Super Bowl pick, and the Dolphins look really bad.  But 13 points is too much, especially against a Houston team that had real trouble last year covering big spreads.

Green Bay Packers(-4 1/2) San Francisco 49ers

The spread start with the 49ers +6 1/2, which made this a real attractive dog bet.  But 4 1/2 make this a tougher sell, especially since the Packers did have an amazing track record last year covering spreads.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2 1/2) Carolina Panters
Surprisingly, the question mark here isn't Cam Newton, who I expect not to have a sophomore slump.  My question is the Bucs, who ended last year with a 10-game losing streak.  I think they're much better than their record last year would indicate, and want to hold off on TB games until I see just how good they are.

All bets are placed at Station Casinos:

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends


great packages said...

There's a lot of professionals choosing the Patriots to go unbeaten this period and it's not an implausible situation. Still, they seemed out of synchronize in preseason, and 5 1/2 factors are a lot on the street against a group that had a successful history last period.

Anonymous said...

Due to the fact the perception and appear of ugg boots is actual general faction now, object locations marketing and advertising them for much less than complete retail price leave be a unenviable and time-consuming duty. Add to this the fact that it at present is number boot selling season and the travail of the chore is compounded. If you but fuck to hit a two of ugg boots tract now, the exclusive items you can genuinely do are hunting for
outlets gift sales on these items or seek the Internet for outlets message discounted costs.
Genuine sheepskin sockliner naturally wicks moisture away [url=]Ugg Boots cheap[/url]
and assists maintain feet dry. Flexible and lightweight molded EVA outsole. Designed to be worn barefoot to maximize the advantages of sheepskin.. They could rather possibly have a lot of far more hair to cover the thinning spots, but that does not necessarily mean that they will go absent entirely. You only demand to know what to do for making that a actuality. Hair ties can break and damage hair only, and it is normally likely to obtain your hair caught inside the ponytail if you are not cautious.
And it's accurate - many folks do not image the appeal of this clunky, furry footwear. They have a lengthy background, too. Initially got for sheep herders in UK and other people in areas with a lot of rough climate, these boots assistance your feet warm sale uggs and dry, but nevertheless provide them to breathe.
- You can buy slightly employed as effectively as brand name new UGGs from on line advertisements and auction internet sites. Sellers will offer you with [url=]Ugg Boots sale[/url]
a assortment of factors why they wish to marketplace their new UGGs. You will want to know far better even though than to just believe just about every single person reason.

Anonymous said...

wTiq ghd
nCrp nfl jerseys wholesale
bTbi botas ugg españa
5nZii ghd hair straighteners
8cRzy ghd stockists

Anonymous said...

kXlz ghd hair straightener
aOsu ugg boots sale uk
cZye michael kors purses
0kQrl GHD Australia
2qXta burberry outlet
7nPyu ugg pas cher
5gVqy ghd hair straighteners
8sBhc louis vuitton sale
0sDcs michael kors outlet
2gGri cheapest ghd
3tKji ugg boots
1yUsm nike nfl jerseys
7bRmk michael kors outlet online
8xEms Lisseur GHD
2pXyz cheap uggs

Anonymous said...

lBxr coach outlet online
cHbd ugg boots
oMzo michael kors purse
3eBlb ugg boots
0nPvv chi
2hScv michael kors outlet
6vAyx cheap nfl jerseys
1dWen coach outlet online
0nEbh north face sale
2uTfj ugg españa
3xWln cheap ghd straighteners
5lSyb michael kors wallet
1wKrc cheap nfl jerseys
4jKed ghd españa
0qXde discount ugg boots