Thursday, September 20, 2012

Robalini's Week 3 NFL Picks

Here's my results for week 2
W-L-T record: 3-5
Season record: 8-10

Thanks to a last minute bet on the Saints and betting on the Ravens via moneyline, the week went from 4-3 to 3-5.  Football is a game of inches...

No more hot picks for me, after going 0-3 last week...

Here's my picks:

New York Giants (+2 1/2) over Carolina Panthers

The Giants are on the road with only three days rest and injured on offense, but this is the kind of situation where Eli Manning delivers.  I'm siding with Mr. Clutch on this one.

St. Louis Rams (+7) over Chicago Bears

One thing I like to do is identify a trend before it comes commonplace.  For example, last year I jumped on the 49ers and Lions bandwagon early to my profit.  So the trend I'm betting on: the NFC West, beyond the 49ers, is much better than it's given credit for.  After 4 years straight of being the worst division in football, it no longer has the title.  (The new winner is probably the AFC South.)  And the Rams, who I warned last year in the preseason was a fraud, clearly are improving quickly under the coaching of Jeff Fisher.  Their defense looks pretty solid, and Sam Bradford, after being way overhyped after his overrated rookie season, is developing into a competent QB who doesn't make many mistakes.  Compare that to Jay Cutler, who, for all his talent, looked awful last week on the field and even worse in his snotty behavior to his teammates.  The behavior of Cutler is a warning sign of self-destruction for a team (Fisher should know about this: remember how Vince Young's outburst in 2010 imploded his extremely talented Tennessee Titans?)  I could be wrong, but it looks like the Bears will have a very disappointing season.  The Bears can still win, but give the Rams a TD?  I'll take it!

San Francisco 49ers (-7) over Minnesota Vikings

After 2 weeks, the 49ers look like the best team in football, with dominating (even if not overwhelming) wins over the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions.  The Vikings are not on this caliber of a team, so I expect SF to confidentally trounce Minnesota.

Detroit Lions (-3 1/2) over Tennessee Titans

The Lions are much better than they've looked so far this year, and I think they will show it against the Titans.

New York Jets (-3) over Miami Dolphins

Both teams are 1-1.  Which team do I think would hate having a losing record more?  The Jets, which is why they will win.

Buffalo Bills (-3) over Cleveland Browns

The Browns have overplayed so far this year, a trend that should stop against the still underrated Bills.

Arizona Cardinals (+4) over Philadelphia Eagles

The Cards, like the Rams, are a highly underrated NFC West team.  (So are the Seahawks, though bettors seem to have caught up with them.)  Even with big questions at QB, they have a dominating defense.  They are at home against a very lucky 2-0 Eagles, who should continue to be error prone.  The Eagles can still win, but I'm willing to bet even so, it'll be by a field goal or less.

Atlanta Falcons (+3) over San Diego Chargers

The Chargers have looked good so far, but the Falcons are the kind of team they self-destruct against.

Houston Texans (-1 1/2) over Denver Broncos

The Texans were my preseason AFC pick, and Peyton Manning and the Broncos are the perfect test for them.  I expect them to pass the test.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) over Oakland Raiders

Despite injuries, the Steelers defense looks as tough as ever, and Ben Roethlisberger has been astounding on 3rd downs.  The Raiders look clueless thanks to too many coaching changes.

Baltimore Ravens (-3) over New England Patriots

Baltimore is at home, and the Pats don't look in sync.

Green Bay Packers (-3 1/2) over Seattle Seahawks

Maybe they won't go 15-1 this year, but the Packers are still as dominating as any team outside of San Francisco right now.

All bets are placed at Station Casinos:

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Your picks are shit, Fatboy! Growup, and make rational selections. It's only the upcoming third NFL week and you've already bailed out on your "Hot Picks."

You're a friggin' loser!