Sunday, September 16, 2012

Robalini's Week 2 NFL Picks

Here's my results for week 1
W-L-T record: 5-5
Hot Picks record: 2-1

Though I went 2-5 on Sunday, I still had a .500 record thanks to Thursday & Monday games.

Hot Picks (in order of hotness):

Washington Redskins (-3 1/2) over St. Louis Rams

This is the first time I've ever picked the Skins in a game since starting this last season.  RGIII will do that to you.

Oakland Raiders (-2 1/2) over Miami Dolphins

Despite their loss to the Chargers, the Raiders looked surprisingly good, and if they only had a decent backup long-snapper, they could've won the game.  The Raiders need some work, but Miami is a great team to get in gear with.

Baltimore Ravens (+2 1/2) over Philadelphia Eagles

I was pretty sold on the Ravens after their crushing victory over the Bengals, but Vegas isn't convinced.  I'll take them over the Eagles on the road.

My other four picks:

Cincinnati Bengals (-6 1/2) over Cleveland Browns

The Bengals weren't really that bad last week: the Ravens just were that good.  The Browns didn't overplay last week: the Eagles just underplayed.

Houston Texans (-7) over Jacksonville Jaguars

I'm not convinced the Texans are the AFC top team now after seeing the Ravens in action, but I am convinced they're better than the Jags.

Dallas Cowboys (-3 1/2) over Seattle Seahawks

In the past, the Seahawks are the kind of team the Cowboys would underperform against.  That is the past.

San Diego Chargers (-6 1/2) over Tennessee Titans

The Chargers didn't look good last week, but I expect them to improve at home against a Titan team humiliated by the Patriots last week.

Games I'm passing on and why:

New York Giants (-7) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I'm not sure where these teams stand after Week 1, and the spread is too high to bet on the Giants.

New England Patriots (-14) Arizona Cardinals

After their win over the Titans, I'm sold on the Pats being back at playoff form.  But fourteen points is too much a risk.

Indianapolis Colts (+2 1/2) Minnesota Vikings

Both teams are a question mark still, and the Vikings are a -120 pick.

Carolina Panthers (+2 1/2) New Orleans Saints

I may still bet on this game, but am planning to pass since the Saints are a -120 payout.  If you can get the Saints at -110, it's a great bet.

Buffalo Bills (-3) Kansas City Chiefs

The better bet of the two is Buffalo, but it's a -120 game.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5 1/2) New York Jets

I like the Steeler, but think it's gonna be a close game.

San Francisco 49ers (-7) Detroit Lions

I love the Niners, but respect the Lions too much to give them a touchdown.

Atlanta Falcons (-3) Denver Broncos

I'm pretty big on the Falcons this year, but holding back due to the Peyton X-Factor.

All bets are placed at Station Casinos:

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends

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