Friday, October 15, 2010

Reid-Angle Race Remains Tight

NV Sen: Reid-Angle Race Remains Tight as Democrats Struggle with Projected Low Turnout
Jon Walker
Wednesday October 6, 2010

The Senate race in Nevada remains incredibly tight according to the latest survey from CNN/Time Opinion Research. The poll also found that Harry Reid is being badly hurt by disintrest from Democratic-leaning voters adversely affecting projected turnout this year in Nevada.

CNN/Time Opinion Research (PDF) (10/1-5)

Likely Voters
Harry Reid (D) 40
Sharron Angle (R) 42
Scott Ashjian (T) 7
None of the above 10

Registered Voters
Harry Reid (D) 43
Sharron Angle (R) 32
Scott Ashjian (T) 9
None of the above 15
No Opinion 1

Among likely voters the race is essentially tied and has remained basically unchanged since mid-September, when CNN/Time last polled the race. In fact, almost every single poll of likely voters for the last month has shown Reid and Angle roughly tied.

But as you can see in the poll of registered voters, Reid could win the race if only he could somehow get the Democratic-leaning voters to turn out. That is not going to be easy. With massively high unemployment, the electorate is unhappy with the job Reid has done. There is also the problem of the large, traditionally Democratic-leaning Hispanic community being upset about Democrats’ failure to deliver on their promise to deal with immigration reform. If Reid does end up winning this race, it will probably have a fair amount to do with a very well executed GOTV operation.

Other news from the poll is that Democrats have double-digit leads in the New York senate races and governor’s race. In the Connecticut senate race, Democrat Richard Blumemthal is leading Republican Linda McMahon 54-41. The bad news for Democrats is that any hope of picking up a Missouri senate seat seems to be slipping away. Republican Roy Blunt leads Robin Carnahan 53 percent to 40 percent.

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