Thursday, October 20, 2011

Robalini's Week 7 NFL Picks

Here's my results for week 6 W-L-T record: 6-2
Season record: 22-16-2

Robalini's Commentary: WINNING! 6-2 week and a 14-8 three-week run. Incidentally, am I the only one who, while seeing the scuffle between Jim Harbaugh and Jim Schwartz after the 49ers-Lions game, thought of a pitch for the next buddy comedy starring Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly?

Anyway, here's my picks for Week 7:

Carolina Panthers (-2 1/2) Over Washington Redskins

I am sold on Cam Newton. Yes, the Panthers are 1-5, but they've had a real tough schedule, and Newton has lost with poise. At home against the Skins (way worse than their 3-2 record suggests, and putting in at starting QB a dude who didn't play a NFL game in four years until last week) Cam and co. should do well...

New York Jets (+2) Over San Diego Chargers

As much as I love Rex Ryan, after six weeks, I have to conclude they're probably not quite ready to be Super Bowl champs yet like I predicted in pre-season. (And sorry, but Mark Sanchez is glaringly the weak link here.) Still, they are better than their record of 3-3 suggests, and they can still kick the ass of any other team in the NFL on any given Sunday, either on home or on the road. Meanwhile, the Chargers are 4-1, a shockingly good record for a team notorious for starting slow in the Norv Turner era, more impressive because their only loss is against the omnipotent Patriots. And yet, they oddly don't look particularly strong this year, either on the stat sheet or the eyeball test. Go figure. So screw it, I'm going with my eyeballs over team records. I'd take the Jets at home against the Chargers even if you weren't giving me two points...

Houston Texans (+3) Over Tennessee Titans

They've hit a tough patch, but I still am sold on the Texans. They should dispatch the Titans easily...

Denver Broncos (+2 1/2) Over Miami Dolphins

There are two kinds of people in the world: people who think Tim Tebow has the intangibles to be a potentially great winning NFL QB, and those who think he just can't translate his college successes to the pros. Count me in the former category. Tebow proved yet again that he is a winner at heart in his off-the-bench near comeback against the Chargers two weeks ago, and now, well-rested after a week off, the Broncos have a virtual home game in Florida Tebow-land against a demoralized Miami team that seems more interested in winning the Andrew Luck sweepstakes than any game they play. And you're giving me 2 1/2 points on top of that? Dude, I'm there!!!

Oakland Raiders (-4) Over Kansas City Chiefs

Let me be bold here: Oakland will win the AFC West this season. I knew they had talent in a weak division, but I just didn't think they were ready for prime time. They are, unlike KC, who was my preseason pick. And this was my opinion even before I heard they had obtained Carson Palmer at QB. Palmer may be rusty, but he'll still play well enough, and at home against the hapless Chiefs with the ghost of Al Davis screaming "Just Win, Baby" they will do just that...

Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) Over Arizona Cardinals

The Steelers are banged up, but they love to feast on weak teams. The Cardinals fit the bill...

Green Bay Packers (-8 1/2) Over Minnesota Vikings

Hard to believe, but this is the first time all season I'm picking the Super Bowl champ Packers to win. (In fact, two weeks ago, I picked the Falcons to win with points against Green Bay, a pick that was wrong.) Why no Packer love? Am I that much of a Favre fanboy? No, I always thought the Packers were good (though didn't expect Aaron Rodgers to have an MVP-level start and the team to go undefeated) but due to the heavy pro-Packer betting, they just didn't seem like a wise bet with the inflated point spreads. But a Fellini-esque 8 1/2 points against a 1-5 Vikings team starting a highly suspect rookie QB for the first time? That sounds like a good deal to me...

Baltimore Ravens (-8) Over Jacksonville Jaguars

This is the fourth time this season I'm picking the Ravens to win and the fifth time I'm picking against the Jaguars. Baltimore is 4-1, and Jacksonville is 1-5. I think I'm onto something here...

All bets are placed at Station Casinos:

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends